Pundits Blow Smoke; Democrats Panic!

[samplegirl]

As we head into summer, the pundit class is sounding all sorts of alarms about how the Democrats are DOOMED this year. I’d list a few examples but doing a search using “Democrats 2010″ will bring up plenty. It’s all about how “anti-incumbent” the voters are supposed are supposed to be energized and the Democrats are not as revved to go vote this year as they were in 2008. Some Democrats are buying into this and doing their panic thing as well.

OK, reality check time.

First of all, let’s take a quick glance at the calendar. Does it say October or November to you? It doesn’t to me, either. These predictions are being made now before most of the candidates in the general election have even been decided yet. No worries, say the pundits, no matter who they are if they’re Democrats they’re screwed. Yeah, that works.

About that “who’s all excited to go vote and who isn’t” thing: This is May. Summer will be here shortly. Summer means many things like shorts, trips to the beach, vacations, getting a tan – things like that. One thing it doesn’t mean is politics. The elections aren’t even a faint blip on most peoples’ radar and won’t be until after Labor Day. The only ones paying attention to elections and such are us politics junkies and there ain’t that many of us. So we don’t know who’ll be itching to go vote in November yet.

http://www.alan.com/

OK, what about all this anti-incumbent, “we hate Congress” thing that’s flying about? Here’s my notably unreliable prediction about that: Saying people don’t like Congress is like complaining about the weather. Both sides will do their primary challenges but really – who thinks Democrats are so upset that they’ll vote to put back into power the people they rushed to the polls to toss out of power back in ‘08? The teabaggers are going to vote for the party they hate to show up the Republicans? Puhlease.

Besides, things are changing as the year progresses. Polls may fluctuate over which party is winning the generic battle over Congress, most people may not be happy with the Democrats in Congress but they plain don’t like or trust the Republicans.

So let me put on my pundit cap and do a bit of predicting myself.

The Democrats will lose a few seats this year (a pretty common occurrence for the party in power) but once the dust settles they will still have complete control of Congress. Voters will do what they normally do, say “Your Representative/Senator is awful but mine is OK,” and re-elect most of them. After all the shouting by the Tea Partiers and the pundits’ visions of Democratic doom and gloom those pronouncements will be treated the way they usually are – they’ll be totally ignored.

This isn’t to say that Democrats can just coast to victory in November – they will have to get down from their towers and do some real battling to keep what they’ve got. In most cases, with the Republicans being as crazy as they’ve been, that means pointing out their nuttiness and hammering home the real question to be decided in November:

Do you really want these Birther,Tenther, no-taxes-ever, “Obama is a Socialist” freaks in control of the government again?

Democrats, I think we’re going to do just fine.

[Scuba]

1. Don't relax!!! ...

... but I think Congress just may get a little better in November.

[babylonsister]

2. I agree with this analysis. Dems do need to be on their toes, but

it's not going to be as cataclysmic as the pundits seem to be predicting. Maybe they're just wishing for this result in November. :eyes:

:hi:

[old mark]

3. I just heard an estimate on the Philly news that 40% of voters are expected to

vote on Tuesday for tha PA primary...that's pretty high for a primary in the US, and I hope we will ALL vote in November - we need every Democratic vote to keep the GOP from making further gains in power....Look at Arizona and New Jersey and see what a job the GOP is doing on our country.
If we don't want to see this repeated in other states we must vote - it's that simple.

I really believe we can dislodge a few more repbulicans and I am looking forward to their disapointment and confusion this fall.

mark

[breadandwine]

9. The problem is the GOP knows how to peddle canned anger and we don't.

This is a midterm election in which only a minority of voters vote which gives tremendous influence to the fanatics who will vote out of all proportion to their numbers.

If we are placid, polite and pleasant we will get creamed in November.

Democrats are not pounding the podium or railing against the GOP and the corporations.

Result? We lose.


The public is angry and sullen and frustrated over the weak economy. You don't mollify that anger. You CHANNEL it. But Democrats and Obama don't have a clue how to do that, it's all polite Irving.......

[old mark]

10. Democrats ARE too polite, and respectful of other's opinions,

except among ourselves. It seems we will get mad as hell at other liberals but we won't do anything about the RW idiots who seem determined to ruin our country.
The last time the left really got mad was when the draft was in effect in the '60's and early '70's...

Once college people were no longer drafted, the protests and left wing activism pretty much ended.

I don't know how threatened we must be to feel enough anger to really act on it, but I don't see it happening any time soon.

I am just hoping there are enough who will vote now and in November.

mark

[Jamastiene]

4. The status quo Republican playbook continues to work on Democratic politicians,

but only because they let it work on them. :banghead:

[whyverne]

5. You gotta keep your powder dry for the fall.

At least I hope that's what their doing. Then you unleash the Kraken.
Republicans are the do-nothing party. They let 9/11, Katrina and the Great Recession happen by doing nothing. Tax cuts for the rich did not create any jobs. ETC. Jeez, we got enough ammunition.

[madokie]

6. The President put it pretty good the other day

when he said they drove us into the ditch and now they want the keys back, NO, you can't drive.
I agree with you.
I see, for the most part, here it is the pro-Hillary people who are pushing that line, that and the ones here who really don't like having a Black Man in the oval office. Don't kid yourself there's some of those here too :-)

We'll be fine and things will start looking up as soon as this next election is in the past. The main stream media is who we need to be working on every day. They are simply pushing the rightwing lie like it was the truth. Some people, here included, can't or won't see that

[samplegirl]

7. I agree Media is the biggest culprit.

[madokie]

8. If we don't fix that we'll not win in the end

I know many people who if they read it in the paper or hear it on the tv it simply has to be true. Those are the ones we'll never get to see the light without much work if even then. it's 24/7/365.4 percent of the time too. As it stands now the only network that even has a smidgen of none rightwing bullshit is msnbc an only for part of the day at that. After Nixon's fall from grace the rightwing of the reptilicon party declared that in order to get their message out they were going to have to start buying up the press. Its been a buying frenzy and a propaganda spewing time ever since