Mother Jones: More on the Long-Term Unemployed

[marmar]

More on the Long-Term Unemployed
— By Kevin Drum

| Fri May. 14, 2010 10:54 AM PDT


Just a quick additional note about long-term unemployment — i.e., those who have been unemployed more than six months. Normally, the long-term unemployment rate is considerably lower than the short-term rate, and tracks roughly equal with the rate of the medium-term unemployed (those out of work 15-26 weeks). The chart snippet on the right, with long-term unemployment in red, shows this. So if this recession had followed the usual pattern, long-term unemployment would have peaked a few months ago at about 2% of the labor force and would now be down in the neighborhood of 1.5% or so. Instead, it's at nearly 4.5% and still climbing.

Here's what this means: if this recession were following the usual pattern, total unemployment would have peaked several months ago not at 10%, but at around 7% or so. This is just a back-of-the-envelope figure after looking at the raw BLS numbers, but it's in the right ballpark. And that's a huge difference. Unemployment of 7% is bad, but it's not catastrophic.

I don't yet have anything deep to say about this. I'm still just noodling over the data. But as this makes clear, the depth of our current recession is almost entirely due to the fantastically high and unprecedented amount of long-term unemployment. I don't know if that's cause or effect or something in between, but it's important.


http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2010/05/long-term-unemployment-revisited

[Go2Peace]

1. Here is the chart discussed- Long term unemployment appears frightening

[OffWithTheirHeads]

2. Let me try to put this into perspective.

When my neighbor loses a job, it's a recession.

When I lose MY job, it's a depression.

When my neighbor loses his job, I lose my my job, and everyone else I know loses their jobs, we're fucked!

Welcome to the new wold order peasants.

[tonysam]

3. It's not "important"--it is a CRISIS

This isn't like other economic downturns; there is NOTHING out there in terms of jobs.

[newthinking]

4. Yes, this chart seems to suggest something much more fundamental has changed

Notice the chart starts in the 70's. Long term unemployment has NEVER exhibited anything near what it shows in this chart. Those are people out of work more than 2 years, as in before Obama came into office. This is not simply about the "banking crisis".

[prolesunited]

5. I was laid off from two high-quality professional jobs

between 2005 and 2008 and have not been able to find a job since. It's like I'm invisible.

[leftstreet]

6. K&R

[KillCapitalism]

7. Sadly there are people that will never work again.

We seriously need a Federal jobs program for anyone unemployed for more than 26 weeks. What is someone who's 35, 45, or even 50 supposed to do? Retirement is certainly not an option.