Independent Scientists Dispute Spill Estimates by NOAA and US Coast Guard

[amborin]

Federal Agency Chief Admits Lapses in Gulf Oil Spill

snip


"....On Monday, government officials insisted that the oil had not yet entered the gulf’s loop current, which carries warm water in a vast clockwise motion from the Yucatán Peninsula into the northern Gulf of Mexico, then south to the Florida Keys and out into the Atlantic. They said they were continuing to monitor the movement of the spill closely.
But Dr. Hu and another independent scientist, analyzing ocean current and satellite data, said the oil was in an eddy that was quickly being drawn into the loop current, portending a much wider spread of the hazardous slick. Dr. Hu said that a team of scientists was planning to go into the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday to analyze the currents"

snip

"At present, little oil appears to have reached the loop current proper. Rear Adm. Mary E. Landry of the Coast Guard, one of the top officials overseeing the spill response, said at a briefing on Monday: “We know that the oil has not entered the loop current at this time. There may be some leading edge sheen that’s getting closer to the loop current, but this spill has not entered the loop current proper.”

But the independent scientists said that a portion of the wide oil slick is circulating in an eddy directly north of the loop current. This eddy, known as a cyclone, spins counterclockwise and is dragging the oil south.
“There is a very, very distinct trail of oil from the oil spill, all the way into this cyclone,” said Nan Walker, an oceanographer with the Earth Scan Laboratory at Louisiana State University. “So far, it looks like the oil is continuing to be dragged around the cyclone, but eventually it’s going to be mixed in with the loop current and make its way south to Florida.”
Dr. Hu said that the amount of oil entering the cyclone had increased sharply in the past few days.
“I see a huge oil plume being dragged in that direction,” he said. “It’s like a river.”

Dr. Hu estimated that oil that entered the current could reach the Florida Keys in roughly two weeks.
Jane Lubchenco, administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said Monday in an interview on PBS’s “NewsHour”: “By the time the oil is in the loop current, it’s likely to be very, very diluted. And so it’s not likely to have a very significant impact. It sounds scarier than it is.”
"

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/19/us/19spill.html?pagewanted=2&ref=us


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The Oil and the Loop Current

The spill is pictured in outline, revealing a long tail of oil being dragged away from the site of the Deepwater Horizon oil rig by ocean currents. Responsible for the current is a giant eddy, also known as a cyclone, about 150 miles wide from east to west. It has spun off the much larger loop current, a powerful and unpredictable ocean feature that transports warm water in a clockwise motion from the Yucatán Peninsula into the northern Gulf of Mexico, then south to the Florida Keys and out into the Atlantic.

The thickness of the oil in the tail is unknown. Federal officials have characterized it as a light sheen, while some independent scientists say they believe it is considerably thicker. That the tail of oil is easily visible from space is one indication that it may be thicker than a light sheen.

“It’s highly visible in our imagery,” said Nan Walker, an oceanographer with the Earth Scan Laboratory at Louisiana State University, where a separate analysis of the satellite images is being done. “It’s unmistakable. And oil spills, to my mind, aren’t usually that easy to track.”"

http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/05/18/the-oil-and-the-loop-current/?ref=us


The next two images show the ocean temperature in the gulf, with an outline of the oil spill overlaid. The dark red bulb directly below the spill is the loop current; above it is the cooler and less distinct cyclone.

The first image shows the spill, upper left, in relation to the loop current on May 6-7.






The following image shows the spill on Monday, with a long tongue of oil snaking out to sea:

(All three images were created by Chuanmin Hu of the Institute for Optical Oceanography at the University of South Florida.)



"....

[Angry Dragon]

1. They will never tell the whole story

We will live with this oil for at least the next 50 years, if not longer.

[tosh]

2. NOAA's trajectories are finally depicting this.

24-HR as of last night: http://response.restoration.noaa.gov/book_shelf/2009_TMF24-2010-05-17-2100.pdf

72-HR as of last night: http://response.restoration.noaa.gov/book_shelf/2011_TMF72-2010-05-17-2100.pdf



(BTW, there's that unrec thing going on again! :wtf: )

edited out creative word.

[blindpig]

3. Is it bad enough yet?

Expropriate the bastards k&r