Peak oil production coming much sooner than expected

[marmar]

from Grist:



Peak oil production coming much sooner than expected
by Craig Severance

19 May 2010 12:25 PM


A storm is quickly approaching, and the world is not ready for it.

The permanent end of the era of cheap oil is coming as soon as next year, according to a raft of official reports that have made their way into energy media over the last few months. Governments are now beginning to acknowledge the looming crisis. Yet, perhaps because they waited too long to prevent it, leaders are not yet alerting the public.

The entire world economy is built on cheap oil. A permanent oil production shortage will thus lead to The End of The World (As We Know It). What will come on the other side of this -- will it be good or bad?

Public unaware

Except for a few stories in financial pages such as London's Financial Times, this earth-shaking news has yet to reach the Mainstream Media. While "Peak Oil" researchers have long warned of approaching oil shortages, the difference now is these dire warnings are being validated by the highest government and oil company officials. Yet, no political leader has had the courage to make a major announcement to prepare the public for what lies ahead.

This public blindness is tantamount to the isolationism that gripped the U.S. in the years preceding WWII. While the highest government leaders did their best to prepare for inevitable war, they were hamstrung by the resistance of a public unable to accept what really lay ahead. Similar to today, some politicians advanced their own careers by feeding on the public's desire to believe no coming storm could ever reach them. Yet, the storm came anyway. ..........(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.grist.org/article/2010-05-19-peak-oil-production-coming-much-sooner-than-expected/

[scheming daemons]

1. I read this post in 1970... and in 1980... and in 1990... and in 2000.... and in...

...you get the idea.


For 40 years we've heard that "peak oil" is just around the corner.


Pardon me if I yawn at it this time.....




"peak oil" is to the left what "the rapture" is to the right.



It ain't happening anytime soon.

[hunter]

3. When I was a young man, gasoline was almost free

I was making ten bucks an hour loading trucks and gasoline was 60 cents a gallon. I could drive anywhere without ever worrying about the price of gas.

Oh, and I was attending college too. That was almost free too. I graduated with no loans.

These days that job I had then still pays ten bucks an hour... Life sucks for most recent high school graduates.

Half the economic chaos you see around you is a consequence of peak oil, happening now, and the other half a consequence of financial sharks taking advantage of that chaos.

Have a nice day.

[TroglodyteScholar]

2. Much sooner than expected?

The definition of "expected" has shifted so many times as to be completely meaningless.

[FarCenter]

4. It is very unlikely that we will see 90 million barrels per day

Global oil supply in barrels per day. 2008 may have been the peak annual production, although we are currently at 85,472,000 barrels per day.

1995   70,273.869
1996   71,918.747
1997   74,159.594
1998   75,656.071
1999   74,848.529
2000   77,760.213
2001   77,680.269
2002   76,983.283
2003   79,583.080
2004   83,087.604
2005   84,549.599
2006   84,517.314
2007   84,394.202
2008   85,384.198
2009   84,158.559 

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/iedindex3.cfm?tid=5&pid=53&aid=1&cid=&syid=1995&eyid=2009&unit=TBPD

[Zynx]

9. That was likely largely in response to the demand hit from the recession.

Look at 2001 and 2002 for a similar period.

[FarCenter]

10. As soon as there is recovery, oil prices will spike and throttle back demand

Plus, there is no economic reason for oil producing countries to raise production above current levels and deplete their reserves when they can take advantage of higher prices to increase revenues.

[librechik]

5. Public blindness? we have been BEGGING for oil alternatives for decades

our govt and the industry told us to go suck the big one. Even at this stage they will resist the changeover with all the strength of their money and armies--all to protect their stupid obsession with gas and oil.

[Statistical]

6. Until 2009 SUV & Large Trucks outsold fuel efficiency vehicles.

The consumer as a whole is just as addicted to cheap oil lifestyle as big business is.

[librechik]

8. What choice did they offer us? And I don't believe that statistic says what you think it does.

They took the electric car off the market even though it was popular and the owners wanted to keep them. It's more complicated for the consumer, who is kept out of most decisions which determine his choices.

[Statistical]

11. There were and are plenty of quality fuel efficient vehicles.

However for every fuel efficient vehicle that was sold twice as many low mpg vehicles were also sold.

The trend has gotten better from 2008 onward but it was downright awful in late 90s and early 2000s.

2009 was first time fuel efficient vehicles were well represnted in top vehicles sales:
http://www.autoblog.com/2010/01/06/top-20-best-selling-vehicles-of-2009/

This trend continues in 2010 but still isn't exactly good. #1 is F-150 and #2 is Chevy Silverado.

The majority of Americans decided a long time ago they don't give a flying crap about efficiency.

If Americans really cares about fuel efficiency we would see fuel efficient midsized vehicles selling 500,000, 600,000, 800,000 units a year and larger vehicles being relegated to a minority. That hasn't happened despite gas prices going higher every year for last decade.

[taterguy]

7. Beggars can't be choosers

For over a century we've had this marvelous invention called the bicycle.

If the public was truly opposed to oil consumption you'd see a lot more of them on U.S. roads.

[librechik]

12. It would be easier if we had bikepaths, but bike use is rocketing higher

http://www.bikeleague.org/blog/2009/10/bicycle-commuting-trends-2000-to-2008/

Even though I see posts here declaring they want to KILL "stupid bikers" who get in the way of their cars.

Where I live they are EVERYWHERE and we have great bikepaths. Not so easy other places. I suppose we'll have to beg again.

[taterguy]

13. Less than 1% is "rocketing higher"?

Must not be a very big rocket.

[librechik]

14. I suppose you read it differently than I did--I read up 43% since 2000

"This is up 14 percent since 2007, 36 percent from the first ACS in 2005, and 43 percent since the 2000 Census. "

But that's just the first paragraph.

[taterguy]

15. The point of my OP was that few people use bicycles in this country

And to contradict that you posted a link that says the percentage of people who use bikes to commute is 0.55.

I rarely post this smiley and mean it but:

:wtf: