What if they can't stop the oil spill?

[subsuelo]

Worst case scenario - what if they can't stop it...

I'm getting more and more concerned. I think we all assume right now that of course people are working frantically overtime to get this thing patched up. But what if that is not the case? What if BP is just giving up on this, or maybe they have given up already... or maybe worst of all, what if nobody really knows what to do to stop this short of a nuclear device underwater? What if a nuclear device (or something just as drastic) actually *is* the only option?

How long does this thing go on before we start demanding answers? But demand answers from who? The government? Is the government simply too weak to contend with BP?

Who's really in charge with this whole thing? A CBS team can't even report from an oily beach! As of right now it can be officially called One Month since the blast happened. One full month for someone somewhere to have come up with an answer - how to stop it. And the best thing they have is a little siphon that BP is telling us is catching up 1/5 of the spill. Knowing BP's propensity to stretch the truth - they probably aren't catching a thing and if they are it's a tiny little bit.

So back to the question - what if they can't stop it. If it takes some type of bombing device... would the government have the political will to take necessary action? With all the tea-bagging government-hating rage going on these days, would military action get turned into "Look at Evil Obama sending the military in."

Are we at the precipice of a major, unprecedented catastrophe here?

What if it is 50,000 barrels per day and it just keeps on flowing and flowing and flowing.

Seriously - what if they can't stop it?

[Webster Green]

1. The last thing that anyone should worry about is what the teabaggers think.

I agree with you though, and BP should no longer be in charge of this.

Other posters here are saying nothing can be done to check the power of BP, even though they are a foreign entity that is destroying our seas.

This thing is a complete clusterfuck under the supervision of BP. something needs to change NOW!

[Angry Dragon]

3. I agree with you 100%

Need the leader of this country to take a very hard stand and say enough is enough

[sandnsea]

7. I imagine we will assume financial liability

if we take over. It really is a mess and I would never have guessed we'd let a corporation have control of our environment this way. It's crazy.

Should say, an environmental disaster. We gave them control over the environment eons ago.

[Webster Green]

13. Assume control, not liability.

How come when rethugs are in charge they can do whatever, wherever, whenever the fuck they want? They just issue a fucking proclamation, and that's it.

Now, since dems are "in charge", all we can do is sit and watch this disaster continue unchecked (more or less)?

[sandnsea]

18. There would be a legal battle

Step back, be objective.

If your car started leaking oil in the street and the city took over the clean-up and fucked it up, then charged you $10,000, would you pay or sue?

Republicans just issue proclamations because they never think through consequences.

Obama put together a team of scientists and I would agree that if they've got any better ideas, the government should go to court and take over. This is beyond absurd.

[marions ghost]

45. I think that's it

the govt doesn't want to spend the money. It's BP's fault, so they should pay.

[LakeSamish706]

2. The other question is, what if they do try a nuke and it only makes it worse?

I seriously think that this thing could end our existence if we don't stop the flow ASAP. JMHO of course.

[thecrow]

14. Does BP have a nuke at its disposal?

If not, where would it get one?
Would they buy it from someone?
Who in their right mind would allow thm to detonate it
40 miles from NOLA?

This whole thing is MADNESS.

:mad:

[chill_wind]

4. Tragic that they (BP and our government)

never asked themselves that question *before* they destroyed the G.O.M.

[midnight armadillo]

5. Why would you nuke an oil well?

Seriously, why on earth do you think a nuclear warhead would help the situation?

[LakeSamish706]

6. That has been mentioned here on DU. I don't know why you would not just use a conventional

bomb though. Why a nuke indeed?

[Electric Monk]

23. Apparently Russia has done that many times when they've had similar underwater leaks

though none were as deep underwater as this latest one is.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ynews/20100513/ts_ynews/ynews_ts2052

[Statistical]

43. Yield.

A small demolition nuclear device has output of up to 1,000 tons of TNT.

Moving, emplacing, and detonating 1000 tons of TNT 5000ft underwater would be a large logistical challenge.

The plan would be to drill a shaft parallel to leaking well about 500m down. Emplace a nuclear demolition charge at the bottom of the shaft and then backfill to provide a tamp. When detonated the shockwave would move parallel to well and collapse it across a mile wide front creating a permanent seal.

Should only be considered as a last resort but if all other methods fail it would be preferable to this well leaking for decades.

[subsuelo]

9. I don't know what the effects are of various bombs...

... my thinking is that there must be some type of device that the military has which would damage the pipe enough that it simply gets buried. Would it solve the problem?

[Statistical]

44. No.

The well is under tremendous pressure.

Simply crushing the pipe would reduce flow but not pressure and eventually oil combined with sand would wear out the kink and well flow would increase.

The idea is to use a massive explosion to crush the entire shaft closed not in one or two spots but across an entire mile of the shaft creating a permanent seal.

You could do this with conventional explosives but it would require a massive amount.

[jus_the_facts]

24. Russia has done it before.....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x8277298

[Statistical]

42. Us has done research into using nuclear devices (small one) as demolition charge.

Russia claims to have actually used them at least 5 times to stop blowouts.

It is a last ditch effort but a small (1 kt) nuclear device sunk 500m below seafloor would do far less damage than a gusher flowing for decades into the Gulf.



W-54 Special Atomic Demolition Munition (variable yield of 10 tons to 1kt)

[csziggy]

57. Apparently the Russians (or the Soviets) have stopped oil gushers with nukes

Nuke the Gulf Oil Gusher, Russians Suggest

By Jeremy Hsu, LiveScience Senior Writer

posted: 12 May 2010 12:04 pm ET

Using a nuclear explosion to try to plug the gushing oil well in the Gulf of Mexico might sound like overkill, but a Russian newspaper has suggested just that based on past Soviet successes. Even so, there are crucial differences between the lessons of the past and the current disaster unfolding.

The Russians previously used nukes at least five times to seal off gas well fires. A targeted nuclear explosion might similarly help seal off the oil well channel that has leaked oil unchecked since the sinking of a BP oil rig on April 22, according to a translation of the account in the daily newspaper Komsomoloskaya Pravda by Julia Ioffe of the news website True/Slant.

Weapons labs in the former Soviet Union developed special nukes for use to help pinch off the gas wells. They believed that the force from a nuclear explosion could squeeze shut any hole within 82 to 164 feet (25 to 50 meters), depending on the explosion's power. That required drilling holes to place the nuclear device close to the target wells.

More: http://www.livescience.com/technology/russia-nuke-gulf-oil-well-100512.html

Rather than nuke it why, if it gets to that point, why not try one of our 'bunker busters'?

[gimama]

8. please join me in calling &/or emailing

DC & the WH..
WE have to impress upon those in 'power' to stop it NOW.
There is NO reason for bp to be in charge of this, there are PLENTY of braniacs,with realistic ideas & MOTIVATION to stop it. Bp's assets need to be seized at once,they are ALLOWING this to continue, they haven't been responsible or TRUTHFUL for many years.
Just a few years ago, bp (texas city)explosion~another case of criminal negligence~ killed 15 workers. THAT, & the resulting lawsuits, didn't slow down bp's malevolent enterprises. THEY have proven, time & again, they have NO respect for Humans OR the Environment..THEY need to be removed from the site of this disaster, indicted, & prosecuted.
edited cuz I'm too upset to spell correctly.

[subsuelo]

10. It will take a *ton* of political will to seize BP's assets

What if we don't have enough political will to make it happen? Right now, I don't think we do.

We need to start getting LOUDER about this!

[gimama]

15. "Louder" when WE call DC?

I think WE need massive #'s of calls, & letters,to DC,
our local reps' offices, and msm, is an important part of the solution.
Frankly, I'm thinking a massive MARCH on the Gulf Coast AND DC is the way to go.
WE need to express OUR outrage ..for OUR own Health (mental & physical!),
and for the sake of the Planet, the Future, & future Generations.

[Webster Green]

16. I called the White House today, and that's exactly what my comment was.

I also told them I was really upset that the Coast Guard was covering for BP, and keeping the media from reporting on the oil reaching the shoreline.

This is totally unacceptable! I want BP to be destroyed.

[gimama]

22. Thank YOU! what was response?

EveryOne who CARES, can do this..
the WH NEEDS to know,
WE have put up with so much insanity,
death, & destruction,
greed & corruption, suffering..for so long now.
THIS is TOO much to bear.

(((hug)))

[BeFree]

11. They can stop it

For some reason they chose not too.

All they have to do is smash down the end of the pipe. Crimp it.
There are many ways they could try, but they haven't. They don't care.

They are already on the hook to pay for something that's priceless and they know they, as BP, are soon to be history. That's Ok, Exxon will take their place and drill baby drill. Obama already gave them the green light.

Instead of asking what if they can't, you should be asking why they haven't.

[gimama]

17. amen! YOU said it! eom

[subsuelo]

20. so why aren't they stop it?

So if they just don't care, at what point does the government step in and take over?

And if that isn't happening any time soon, why isn't it?

[BeFree]

26. Conspiracy theory...

If the gulf is ruined, and they have proven they are able to keep the oil off the beaches, then who but a few silly environmentalist are going to be against drilling more and more?

Obama is in with the drill baby drill. Bush didn't touch it in 8 years, but Obama sided up to the bar and ordered it be served. This country has to have their oil, and by gawd, we'll get it.

BP is going down. It will be the sacrificial lamb. They have nothing to lose.
So they might as well milk the damn gulf for all it's worth and then it will be a brownfield superfund site and open for the drills.

Heh, it does sound like a plan Cheney could cook up. Eh?

[Electric Monk]

29. re: "and ... able to keep the oil off the beaches" = FAIL

See LBN http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4387741&mesg_id=4387741

[BeFree]

31. Marshes

Sure some marshes have a small beach, but the beaches along Ala, Miss, and Fl are doing fine. Dispersants, don't you know? They have kept the $$ beaches from being oiled. So take your FAIL and stick it where the sun don't shine, K?

[cliffordu]

21. Funniest. Post. Tonight.

:rofl: :bounce: :rofl: :bounce::rofl: :bounce::rofl: :bounce::rofl: :bounce::rofl: :bounce::rofl: :bounce::rofl: :bounce::rofl: :bounce::rofl: :bounce::rofl: :bounce:

[Catherina]

27. Maybe they really can't

It's really easy to drill a hole through a barrier nature took millions of years to perfect. Plugging it up might not be possible with all that pressure shooting out.

I hope you're right and I'm wrong.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W_enCDXmVj0

[subsuelo]

30. And that may be the worst question of all.

What if they really can't? How bad could this get if it continues to gush into the Gulf the way it is right now. What kind of worse-case scenarios are we talking about here? How much environmental impact? How much economic impact? Say the economy tanks... how bad? How much political will does the current administration have to take bold measures that may be essential to any kind of recovery? Just thinking out loud here... it all has me concerned.

[BeFree]

32. They can

It's just a damn pipe. No threat of fire. Nobody else gonna get hurt down there.
All they have to do is crush it. The pipe is built to handle the pressure so all they have to do is plug it or crimp it. It may not stop the flow completely but it would greatly reduce the flow. In fact, they just did put a type of plug in it.

Why haven't they stopped it up? Because as they say: "It's minimal" They don't think it is that big of a deal. Why the fuck would they say that? Because they don't give a shit?

[Catherina]

36. I don't know if it's that simple

The Russians are pretty good at this and the only solution they see, with a 20 chance failure rate, is a nuke.

The problem is the depth, the pressure and all the mud, grit and sand down there.

The drill they used is over 18,00 feet long




It broke through the bedrock but how do you put the genie back in the bottle when you don't have a tool that long to fix it? I don't have any technical knowledge but I don't see how they can just plug it up or crimp it anymore. Plugging it up is like trying to put a champagne cork back in with the added pressure of pressure, sand, oil and grit resisting whatever you throw down there. How can they crimp it? Do they have any tools to do that so deep? I'm totally ignorant about this technically but this is such a new type of drilling, conducted by criminals with no controls over them.

Earlier, "Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, the first of several cabinet officials scheduled to testify on Capitol Hill this week, admitted the government has “limited capability and expertise” in dealing with such disasters in very deep water."

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0510/37355.html

We're at the mercy of these oil companies. With our “limited capability and expertise”, I doubt we insisted on any remedial tools being available. We gave these bastards carte blanche to skimp and steal without any safety measures like having real tools to fix any damage.

I admit, I'm just talking with no knowledge. Besides, I want you to be right.

[Catherina]

38. Me too. Concerned. Concerned and angry and n/t

[LeftyFingerPop]

34. ^^^^^^WATCH THIS VIDEO^^^^^^^^^

[Catherina]

37. Good isn't it. Thanks for watching it. It needs to go viral. n/t

[truth2power]

50. Excellent video!! And I don't care about her language...

I guess it takes a woman to call out those arrogant SOB MFer"s.

And, yes, why hasn't that mealy-mouthed Thad Allen been fired and court-martialed? Hmmm?

And that poor bird... :cry: If there is a Hell.....

[PufPuf23]

56. Ouch. Watch this. Booming 101 vs PR 101 nt

[subsuelo]

58. Definitely! n/t

[TreasonousBastard]

47. WOW! So, with you now being the world's greatest authority on drilling...

howcum you're not down there running the show.

we need your profound expertise.

[BeFree]

52. It is not a drilling operation

This is a recovery operation. It is fix a fuck-up operation.

According to some of you, the next time the navy loses a sub, they should call BP?

Tell ya what.... I'd have that pipe sealed by now, or some heads would be rolling. And I'd be telling the world exactly what is going on. I guess you like being kept in the dark?

[woodsprite]

12. We won't know until they actually attempt to stop it.

And then, only if they actually fail. It's 30 days and they're still trying to just reclaim the oil so they don't lose their money they spent drilling and our stupid ass politicians are just letting BP run the show.

It's takes a different kind of person to not care about any of this except the bottom line - no concern for people, livelihoods, the environment, the animals, no sense of doing what's right. I just can't begin to understand that kind of person, but I think that those people should be made to lick up the oil. After all, according to BP it's only a little bit. BP has enough execs and we have enough paid off politicians and 'experts' that they should certainly be able to take care of it.

[elias49]

19. Well. it's not a 'spill' really. More like an eruption.

If the geniuses :sarcasm: who blew a hole in the ground can't find a way to stop/divert it, it'll eventually peter out. Question is, how the hell much IS there? (Remember Jed Clampett? "shootin' at some food, and up from the ground came a bubblin' crude. Oil that is. Black gold. Texas tea") (I knew there had to be a good reason to watch The Beverly Hillbillies" way back when.)
There were probably estimates made about how much could be drained from that sea of oil under the surface when they decided to drill and exploit the oil reservoir in the first place. Someone knows. The problem, as I see it, is that BP is only concerned with how much money is flowing out into the open ocean. And not into their bank accounts.
It's a catastrophe all right, but it HAS to end.

[subsuelo]

25. If BP had estimates would they be truthful about it?

I think we should just assume that anything and everything BP says is a lie right now. So if they had an estimate it could really be anything. It's been a month and that thing is still gushing strong according to the latest videos.

[elias49]

28. Who knows? But I just did a quick search and found this...

clipped from a NY Times article from 2008. Maybe this can provide some context:

"RIO DE JANEIRO — While some of the world's largest oil producers, including Mexico and Iran, are struggling to remain exporters, Brazil is moving in the opposite direction. A huge underwater oil field discovered late last year has the potential to transform South America's largest country into a sizable exporter and win it a seat at the table of the world's oil cartel.

The new oil, along with refining projects under way by Petrobras, the national oil company, could eventually make Brazil a larger exporter of gasoline as well, adding to supplies in the United States and other countries where it is all but impossible to build new refineries.

The basin that contains Tupi, the new deepwater field ESTIMATED TO HOLD THE EQUIVALENT OF FIVE TO EIGHT BILLION BARRELS OF LIGHT CRUDE OIL is creating a buzz among the world's largest oil companies. They have struggled lately to find global-scale projects worth investing in, even with oil touching $100 a barrel. Tupi is the world's biggest oil find since a 12-billion-barrel field discovered in 2000 in Kazakhstan."

Which makes me think "Holy shit!"

Link to complete story: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/11/business/worldbusiness/11iht-oil.1.9147825.html

[Maru Kitteh]

33. What do you mean? What IF?

Don't you think it'd have been done?

[Feron]

35. A relief well will stop the spill.

Currently BP is drilling two of them. Unfortunately relief wells take months to complete.

[Maru Kitteh]

39. Yes, because everything else they have told us is true.

:puke:

Do you really think we're THAT stupid?

Go sell it to the Republicans. They're really dumb.

[Feron]

40. Education is always superior to fearmongering and insults.

Relief wells are a standard procedure to stop a blowout. Ixtoc 1, the last big blowout in the Gulf, was finally stopped with a relief well. In addition, Montara spill in Australia was stopped with a relief well.

Need more examples?

Here's a great site to begin: http://www.theoildrum.com/

[BakedAtAMileHigh]

46. you are ignoring the differences between those moments and this one

But good luck with your condescension. Do us a favor and check back in with us in a week, will you? Let's see how well your arrogance holds up.

[TreasonousBastard]

48. What are they? I'm waiting to hear from another poster with such...

experience and expertise in deepwater drilling to tell those idiots down there what to do.

(Just a hint-- it takes months for the well to be drilled, if they don't miss the first time, so next week doesn't really mean much)

[BeFree]

53. You really are a treasonous bastard, eh?

Supporting BP all the way?

Next time the navy loses a sub, they should call BP and ask for BP's expertise?

The gulf is being killed right before our eyes and you attack me?

[TreasonousBastard]

54. Well, besides it being someone else I was replying to...

I have no idea how anything I've said implies that I support BP.

In the dim past, however, I did have some peripheral doings with the industry, and was even part of setting up an oil spill emergency system required by the Water Quality Improvement Act of 1970, which I was also involved in implementing.

But, I know very little about the techniques and technologies of deepwater drilling, except for what I read, and tend not to heed the opinions of people who most likely know even less.

[BeFree]

55. So

You should be asking Cheney for advice, eh? He's the expert.

And as for me.... I should just STFU? That would make you happy?

You admit you know very little, so maybe it is you who's opinion is worthless?

Friend, we have an enemy at our feet. Please, don't shoot my feet. Either carefully aim at our enemy or get the hell away, ok?

[Statistical]

51. Relief well has highest chance of success bad news is it takes long time to drill one.

I certainly hope the top kill works or at least significantly slows the flow of oil.

Waiting another 74 days till relief well is done means millions more gallons of oil dumped into Gulf.

[dipsydoodle]

41. K & R

.

[TreasonousBastard]

49. Seriously? If they can't stop it, some will sit on the bottom where...

it is now.

Some will end up on Gulf beaches.

And the rest will end up in the Gulf Stream circling the Atlantic and possibly getting into the Pacific, although it might be too dispersed by then to cause trouble.

But, it will eventually stop all by itself when the pressure eases.

It will not be pretty, but the planet will survive.

(Submarine volcanoes and earthquakes have caused similar gushers in the past, and they healed themselves.)

[thereismore]

59. I believe the gov't can and should have stopped the spill. Just pile rocks and mud on it, lead

balls if you have to. It would stop.

[Old Troop]

60. If they can't plug, I imagine the earth will eventually deflate.

[MODem75]

61. Brit Hume says everything will be ok.

That the ocean will absorb it and all will be well.

[subsuelo]

62. That guy is such an ass... n/t