If Chuck Hagel runs as an Independent in 08, does that help the DEMS?

[RiverStone]

Chuck is starting to hint at a possible Independent run for President in 08:

Hagel Considers Independent Bid
5/5/07

Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) told Bloomberg that he would "consider entering the 2008 presidential campaign as an independent."

Hagel said that an independent bid "is possible" and that "will decide in the next few months whether to run for a third Senate term, pursue the presidency or leave politics altogether, he said."

Meanwhile, an aide to New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg (R) said that their dinner on Wednesday was "their first extensive encounter," reports the New York Sun.

http://politicalinsider.com/2007/05/hagel_considers_independent_bi.html

* * * * * * * * *

Minus his anti-war position, Chuck Hagel has voted 95% in lock-step with Shrub's right wing ideology. Yet, he does present with a toughness and popular down to earth approach which resonates with folks that may not be familiar with his long and very conservative voting record. That could be a concern if he ran, as conservative DEMS and Independent voters also disgusted with Shrub's war may vote for him.

QUESTION: If Hagel runs as an Independent in 08, do you believe that will help the eventual DEM nominee in the Presidential race?

[Horse with no Name]

1. No. I believe he is the ONLY viable repub candidate

that could beat a Dem.
He is one we should be fearful of.

[catmandu57]

20. He is the one to be wary of

The rest of their pack couldn't get elected dogcatcher, he may just peel off enough democrats to become the first independent elected.

[mmonk]

2. Yes.

Only a few republicans are really antiwar, but that would be enough of a pull off of votes..

[mikelgb]

3. depends on the media

[AlinPA]

4. Yep.

[TwilightGardener]

5. If he ran as an indie, he would automatically get tons of press, just like Perot.

And so far, his press is overwhelmingly positive, even downright worshipful. Only Obama gets that kind of press on the Dem side.

[AlinPA]

6. iIf Bible thumpers don't hear him quoting the Old Testament, he won't attract any R votes. Maybe

Independents will vote for him, he does have some respect.

[mmonk]

9. There are plenty of corporate republicans out there that only tolerate

the religious right.

[Ignacio Upton]

10. The Bible-thumpers will already vote (R)

He just has to worry about grabbing all of the other GOP factions - fiscal conservatives, some suburbanite soccer moms (excluding those who will vote Dem anyway) and some of the voters who voted for Webb and Tester - conservative-leaning populists. In addition, if we run a crappy candidate, some DLCers might be inclined to vote for Hagel, especially if Bloomberg is on the ticket as VP.

Such a coalition in a three-way race could get him results as follows:

Hagel: 35-38%
Dem: 32-36%
Rep: 29-32%

I'm assuming that the GOP candidate would come in third in such a race, as I think that Hagel would peal off more center-right Repubs than conservative Dems.

[Ignacio Upton]

7. Hagel-Bloomberg ticket?

While Hagel is just as conservative on most issues outside of Iraq, making Bloomberg his runningmate would help neutralize criticism that he'll be like Bush on everything else. Such a ticket would actually be viable, as it wouldn't come from the ideological fringe (like Nader, the Greens or the Libertarians) and, IMHO, could get 10%-15% of the vote at minimum.

[earthside]

33. Pres. Hagel?

Yup. It could happen.

I've been predicting that if Hillary Clinton wraps up the Dem nomination by the end of February 2008, an independent or third party candidacy would be inevitable. The country wil be demanding something other than another presidential race between two elitist insiders.

After the GOP ten dwarfs debate last week, I am also now thinking that a right-of-center independent ticket, like Hagel-Bloomberg, might even supplant the Republican Party. Now these two guys are eltist insiders, too --- but that is not how they will be marketed or perceived. And Bloomberg has the money and resources to make any ticket he is a part of viable and credible.

We may be on the verge of the biggest upset in presidential politics since Teddy Roosevelt came in second to Woodrow Wilson.

[Dhalgren]

8. I believe a whole lot of conservative Democrats would vote for him.

I think he splits the dem vote. Most of these Conservative "Democrats" vote Republican most of the time, anyway (they just don't always admit it - even here on DU, I would bet that there is a fair number who have voted Republican in the very recent past). But now with it so distasteful to vote for established fascists, they would go to Hagel in a heartbeat...

[mmonk]

11. I think America is looking for change which makes the

republican franchise less attractive. Only left leaning independents so far have hurt the democratic party.

[Dhalgren]

22. That doesn't take into account all of the "Reagan democrats", the

"Bush democrats", the "Zell Miller Democrats" and the "Lieberman Democrats". Conservative Democrats have much more often and recently voted against "their" party and they have actually vote FOR republicans. So I believe that right-leaning "Democrats" have hurt the Party much more and more recently than Left-leaners. Since we cannot know the actual number of votes either way, we will just have to disagree on this...

[mmonk]

23. The bush and Zell ones I'm willing to bet

have a lot of the religious right with them. Lieberman democrats seem too liberal on some issues and were mainly thinking of the past in particular in CT IMO. Lieberman "dems" also have some prowar elements, but they might be independents instead of dems.

[Dhalgren]

29. The thing is, though, that since the 80's, right-wing Democrats have voted against the

Democratic party in bigger numbers and more often than left-wing Dems have. And let's not even talk about the right-wing Dems in the 50's, 60's, and 70's. Right-wing Dems are the least loyal group in the coalition that makes up the Democratic party - they always have been...

[Nite Owl]

12. Hagel is way right

of the people on every issue but Iraq. He even voted against the minimum wage and is very anti choice. It would help the dem nominee if he ran.

[BuyingThyme]

13. I agree.

[Ignacio Upton]

14. Depends on who he has as his running-mate

Hence the meetings with Bloomberg. Bloomberg has been rumored to be interested in an Indy run himself. However, being a center-left RINO from NYC won't help him, but teaming up with the conservative Hagel will. My feeling is that a Hagel-Bloomberg ticket would promise to run a "non-ideological" campaign and try to ignore some of the issues. The MSM would fawn over them, as they still want a right-leaning President, but know that the Republican brand is tarnished.

[AX10]

15. Sounds about right.

Hagel is a conservatives conservative, a reactionary at heart!

[TwilightGardener]

16. Nope, not on every issue--foreign-policy wise, he wants to deal

with Iran and Syria diplomatically, rather than with sabre-rattling, and he has also made speeches in which he cites third-world concerns, such as water wars and disease, as problems we will have to seriously address, both for security reasons and to assure the world of our "moral purpose" as he puts it--his foreign policy approach is almost identical to Obama's.

[RiverStone]

21. Here is a good summary of Hagel's wingnut voting record:

http://www.ontheissues.org/senate/Chuck_Hagel.htm

Rated 100% by the Christian Coalition...

[Ignacio Upton]

24. This is another reason for why he'll need Bloomberg to run with him

He's otherwise too right-wing for swing voters, but if he runs under the auspices of a "non-ideological" campaign, then he can brush this aside.

[TwilightGardener]

27. Yep, no doubt that on domestic issues, he is uber-conservative,

but on foreign policy issues, he is right in line with the Dems. He did, however, vote a couple weeks ago for the Medicare/Drug co. price-negotiation bill along with the Dems, which failed, but I see that cynically as him trying to get the geezers on his side for his Prez run.

[Ignacio Upton]

28. What's his stance on privatizing Social Security?

If he supporting phasing it out back in 2005, then ads should air far and wide.

[TwilightGardener]

34. I remember him saying he wouldn't privatize it, because his family

depended on SS for a while after his father died when he was a teenager, and he knows how people count on it. I'm not 100% sure about that, though.

[rinsd]

18. Agreed (nt)

[SteppingRazor]

17. Boy, tough call.

I think he'd have an adverse effect on both sides. It's tough to say which would be hurt more.

[AndyTiedye]

19. A 3-Way Race Makes It Easier for the Repiglicans to STEAL THE ELECTION

[Tesla]

25. I wish he would jump ship, Gore/Hagel

My mom likes him and she is a hard core Dem!

Maybe we hope he helps us by doing that.

Dosen't he have his hands all over some voting company ? Diebold isn't it?

[RiverStone]

38. Yikes! Send your mom this link:

per post #21

http://www.ontheissues.org/senate/Chuck_Hagel.htm

Hard core DEMS like your Mom make me nervous, as they clearly have no clue just how much a wingnut Hagel is.

BTW, Gore would never consider Hagel --- aside from being way right, Hagel's anti-environmental voting record would make that consideration for Gore a NO brainer.

[TwilightGardener]

40. Hagel is for AWR drilling, but also believes in global warming--

he and Dick Durbin have introduced a bill to study the impact of global warming on national security issues. He also said he thinks Gore has made a significant contribution to global warming awareness, so I wouldn't say he's totally anti-environmental, but I don't see him paired up with Gore in any way, either.

[DFW]

26. I think he'd be doing us a favor

He may have gotten a dose of realism on foreign policy,
but on domestic and social issues, he is in lock-step with
the far right. So what if he says Iraq was a mistake? THAT
is some kind of flirtation with centrism? More like a flirtation
with reality (granted, still a leap for most Republicans).

He and the real Republican candidate split the vote and we breeze
in, which is why I think he won't do it. He'll be even lower in the
eyes of the GOP than Lieberman is in ours, and that ain't none too high.

[roamer65]

30. I think this election would resemble the 1912 election with Hagel in the race.

I think it would hurt Hillary, if she were the nominee. If Gore is the nominee, he would win much like Wilson did in 1912.

OR if no candidate gets 270 electoral votes, off we go to the House of Representatives.

[Ignacio Upton]

31. And like Taft, the GOP candidate will come in third

The party brand has become too tarnished, and if Hagel runs, he can poach some votes away from the GOP candidate.

[roamer65]

32. Yup, exactly.

Hagel would be a "Bull Moose" type of candidate, but he's no TR.

[TwilightGardener]

35. Guess it doesn't hurt him either to look right out of "Central Casting".

[JohnLocke]

36. Depends on who the Repubs nominate.

[annabanana]

37. If it brings the Country back towards the true "middle" it's good for the COUNTRY.

eom

[RiverStone]

39. Hagel is VERY far from the middle...

see post #21

[AX10]

41. A vote for Chuck Hagel is a vote for Samuel (SC)Alito!

[Alexander]

42. Hagel owns ES&S. HELL fucking NO.

He'd either rig his own pseudo-Independent bid (let's face it, both Hagel and Bloomberg are Republicans) or make it close enough for the Republican to win, because of his Iraq War stance.

Plus, I don't see him going Indy. Hagel will run, but he'll run as a Republican.