This looks like a hurricane forming

[shraby]

what say ye all??
<http://www.weather.com/maps/news/forecastsummary/visiblesatellite_large_animated.html?from=wxcenter_maps>

[Christa]

1. Indeed!

Coming to the Carolinas.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

2. Well, it's big, in the atlantic, and circular.

I don't think that makes it a hurricane though.

[lovuian]

3. Yes it does and they predicted more hurricanes in the

Atlantic

[AngryAmish]

4. You have to be shitting me

I'm leaving on a golf trip to Florida on Thursday and I will be really mad if some hurricane screws it up.

[thecrow]

15. This won't hit Florida

[AngryAmish]

17. Well thank God

I've been planning this trip for weeks.

[Dhalgren]

5. Yeow! It don't look good, regardless!

:scared:

[MUAD_DIB]

6. WTF?? Wind speed?

[leftwing9]

7. well...

It looks somewhat loosely formed to be that close to the East Coast.

Still, it looks like we can look forward to a seven-month hurricane season from now on.

[newyawker99]

19. Hi leftwing9!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[bdamomma]

21. welcome to DU leftwing9!

:hi:

[meganmonkey]

8. Not a hurricane. Info from another (much better imo) weather site:

Coastal Carolina storm
A powerful non-tropical low pressure system formed off the coast of North Carolina last night, and is bringing tropical storm-force winds as high as 55 mph to the waters offshore the Carolina coast, according to the latest QuikSCAT satellite wind estimates. The North Carolina Diamond Shoals buoy had 17 foot seas and sustained winds of 43 mph at 9am EDT this morning, and buoy 41001 about 175 miles east of Cape Hatteras recorded sustained winds of 62 mph gusting to 80 mph at 1am this morning. Seas were 41 feet at this buoy this morning! The strong winds will bring 10-20 foot seas and significant beach erosion to the shores of North Carolina, South Carolina, and northeast Florida through Wednesday. A 3-5 foot storm surge is expected along portions of the North Carolina coast through Tuesday morning. The latest set of computer model runs have the storm drifting slowly southwest, and bring it ashore between the South Carolina and northern Florida coast on Wednesday. The storm will start to develop thunderstorm activity and a warm core, but will probably not have time to become fully subtropical and become Subtropical Storm Andrea. However, the storm is only expected to weaken slowly, and will have an impact similar to a tropical storm in regards to offshore winds and coastal flooding today and Tuesday. If the storm does indeed make landfall on Wednesday as expected, it will most likely be of tropical depression strength, with top sustained winds around 30-35 mph. Heavy rains of 1-3 inches can be expected to the north of where the center makes landfall, but rains will not be as significant as what a tropical storm would bring.

I'll have an update on this storm Tuesday morning.
Jeff Masters

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=666&tstamp=200705

[shraby]

10. I wondered what Jeff Masters had to say about it

but hadn't checked yet.

[MUAD_DIB]

11. 5 mph shy of hurricane force...

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

13. nevermind

misread the article.

[Warpy]

9. Looks like a nasty nor'easter in the making

but it's about to leave warm water.



Once it leaves the uppermost warm part of the Gulf Stream, it'll lose punch quickly.

[n2doc]

12. A little too loose to be a hurricane

But otherwise, yikes. Hopefully it will not "spin up" over the Gulf Stream...

[Island Blue]

14. Not a hurricane, but one helluva blow.

I live on the Outer Banks, north of Hatteras Island, and it's been blowin' hard for the past 40 hours or so. All day yesterday and earlier today, winds were 35 - 60 sustained, with higher gusts in places. There is ocean over wash on Hwy. 12 on Hatteras Island, making it impassable. Schools in our county were closed today because there are several bridges to be crossed, and they didn't want to risk it with the school buses. It is starting to calm down a bit now it seems, the wind is only blowing 33 mph.

When you live here, you get used to constant wind, but this is a decent nor'easter. I haven't been to the ocean today, but I suspect we've probably lost a few beach-front cottages. The Coast Guard had to pull several people out of the ocean yesterday and today - boaters coming up from FL, etc. who were surprised by the storm.

This storm seems to have been ignored by the Weather Channel. I don't know why.

Edited to note: We haven't had much rain to speak of associated with this storm (just overcast) so that's a positive. Rain and wind is never a fun combo.

[Malikshah]

16. NOAA site-- *the* place to be for weather in South Florida...

This is their "Image" of the day-- not sure, but doesn't appear that they're raising a panic-- just warning people about the winds.

[malaise]

18. I was watching that last night

shaking my head and saying WTF?

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm1/caribbeansatellite_large.html?from=hurricane_welcome

[bdamomma]

20. look at this imagery also.

looks ominous to me

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20NHE&lat=32&lon=-64&width=800&height=600&mapcolor=cyan&type=Animation&info=wv&zoom=2

[Blackhatjack]

22. The formation of a La Nina is bad news for the Carolinas w/hurricane season coming...

I have a bad feeling that this season we will see hurricanes move up the Atlantic Coast rather than move over Florida into the Gulf.

We have so many homes and development on the coast and outer banks that are vulnerable.

Sure hope I am wrong.

[cwydro]

23. I just heard that they now have hurricane hunter aircraft

on standby. It is not tropical now, but may become so. Weird system.

[Firespirit]

37. It is and it's gaining convection

I've been watching this thing for the past two days, basically in shock. Conditions are NOT favorable yet, the water is only marginal and this thing is surrounded by wind shear, but yet it's apparently gaining strength. This doesn't bode well for this coming season.

It's not a tropical system and it probably won't become one, but there's an outside chance of it. According to the Weather Channel, it is subtropical now, but hasn't been declared so by the NHC. I have a feeling that it would only be declared a subtropical/tropical storm after the aircraft scouted it out, being such an early season storm and not easily classified just by looking at satellites.

[cwydro]

41. agree with you

does not bode well...

[RL3AO]

42. Who cares if it becomes tropical.

Either way it will bring wind and rain to where ever it makes landfall.

[cwydro]

46. exactly.

a nasty looking thing all in all.

[nadinbrzezinski]

24. All I can say it is EARLY fer this shit

[cwydro]

25. latest statement from NHC:

000
WONT41 KNHC 081346
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
950 AM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED ABOUT 230 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS...HAS BEEN
MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY SURF ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND GEORGIA...WITH STRONGER WINDS
OFFSHORE. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SINCE
YESTERDAY...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED. THE LOW IS BEING MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW MORNING...IF NECESSARY.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

[Quixote1818]

26. It's just a low pressure system but the BP is not nearly low enough to form a Hurricane

Not to mention the water is not warm enough yet.

[NightWatcher]

27. Savannah checking in

I wanna go surfing

[Skip Intro]

28. Charleston here

I want to go drinking, lol.

[NightWatcher]

30. it just got dark grey outside my window

this should be fun

[malaise]

32. Stay safe

Make sure you have some emergency supplies.

[NightWatcher]

34. always, I'm one of those paranoid people that have an emergency survival kit

[Corgigal]

52. Summerville SC here (25 miles from Charleston)

I don't care what we do but I don't want to lose power. I just filled the fridge, lots of goodies.
It is too early for this crap, it's payback from last summer.

[SoCalDem]

29. The latest from NOAA

000
WONT41 KNHC 081346
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
950 AM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED ABOUT 230 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS...HAS BEEN
MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY SURF ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND GEORGIA...WITH STRONGER WINDS
OFFSHORE. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SINCE
YESTERDAY...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED. THE LOW IS BEING MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW MORNING...IF NECESSARY.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[malaise]

31. And today is May 8th

WOW! I heard earlier that several people were rescued off the Carolina coast today.

[magellan]

33. That's from this morning

I've had it on my screen all day as I went about my business and just looked for an update. There is none yet.

Our local Orlando forecaster said at noon that this system is still extra-tropical but is considered "hybrid" now -- neither cold core nor warm. In a month this thing might have had a strong chance of turning tropical and nastier, but right now it likely won't do much except erode beaches with heightened wave action and bring some much needed rain to some wildfire areas. It's expected to come ashore around the GA/FL border sometime tomorrow.

[SoCalDem]

35. Yep.. It's so close to shore right now I don;t see it doing much

more than it is now.. The vapor satellite pic shows it as blue..(not tropical red), so I think it's just gonna huff & puff & rain and then move up the coast :)

BUT..

it is a harbinger for an early start to the real season :scared:

[Kelly Rupert]

36. Not a hurricane.

barometric pressure isn't low enough, and there isn't enough time/heat between where it is now and land to make anything of itself. Just a nice storm.

[RL3AO]

38. A new global tropical cyclone record was set today.

What do you think it is? Take a guess. Most storms ever recorded world wide in the first week of May?

Actually, a the record that was broke was longest period without any tropical cyclone in the world. 32 days without any tropical cyclones anywhere in the world which is a new record.



And people on here say the GOP use scare tactics. What about the title of this thread? Its not tropical. Which means its not a hurricane. Its pretty much a late season Nor'easter. It may become sub-tropical, but even thats a stretch.

[Xenotime]

39. This really frightens me....

I hope it isn't another Katrina

[RL3AO]

40. I dont know how to say this more clearly.

THIS ISNT TROPICAL. PERIOD. This really isnt completly directed to you, but mainly the poster of this thread who should have used a more appropriate title like "Possible tropical system in Atlantic".

[Catherine Vincent]

43. It's an unusual storm.

That's what was said earlier on CNN.

[RL3AO]

45. A little unusual. But its just a coastal storm that may become sub-tropial.

It doesnt matter much anyway. Either way it will be 40 mph rain maker.

[cwydro]

44. All the OP said

was that it LOOKED like a hurricane, which it does.

Apparently the NHC is taking it seriously and have hurricane hunters on alert to go if needed.

Chill. No one is panicking; we're just discussing an unusual storm.

[RL3AO]

47. IMO it looks nothing like a hurricane. It looks like an extra tropical low-pressure system.

This is a hurricane



This is a 90L

[Catherine Vincent]

48. The OP did say a hurricane "forming". n/t

[RL3AO]

49. Thats what I thought it said.

[cwydro]

50. yesterday in its formation

it looked like one in its infancy.
Believe me, I have been through several and that distinctive rotation sends a chill down my spine. When you live where I do, you pay close attention. Plus I'm a weather buff.:hi:

[RL3AO]

51. The system is looking a little better. Aircraft recon looking at it now.

Possibly we could have Sub-tropical storm Andrea.

[cwydro]

55. Latest from NHC

000
WONT41 KNHC 091303
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
905 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2007

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PRELIMINARY REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE IS ACQUIRING
THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. IF PRESENT TRENDS
CONTINUE... ADVISORIES ON SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WOULD BE
INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF THE
CAROLINAS... GEORGIA... AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. INTERESTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND
WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/KNABB

[bdamomma]

53. this is the news flash on CNN

Forecasters say Subtropical Storm Andrea has formed off the southeastern U.S. coast, more than three weeks before the official start of hurricane season.

[malaise]

54. You were close

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x852154