Hurricane Could Spread Gulf Spill Far and Wide

[n2doc]

By Larry O'Hanlon
Mon May 24, 2010 04:53 AM ET


The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 with two exceptional facts: The tropical Atlantic's hurricane growing factory is warmer than ever and the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is still growing.

This raises one very worrisome question: What will happen to the oil if a powerful cyclone enters the Gulf?

Experts say it could accelerate the spread of oil far and wide.

"It will be everywhere in the Gulf and East Coast of the U.S.," said oceanographer Peter Niiler of the University of California at San Diego. Especially if the spill continues to a year, he said.

Niiler is not speculating. He has studied the way ocean currents and winds moved hundreds of "drifter" buoys around the Gulf. In the drifters' 90-day lifespan, he has seen them scatter to all parts of the Gulf with the help of a tropical storm with 40-knot winds.

Some drifters were found as far west as Texas and others were caught in the Loop Current that carries Gulf water out and around to the East Coast of North America.

more

http://news.discovery.com/earth/oil-slick-hurricane-cyclone.html

[Better Today]

1. Hurricane season predictions have been notoriously wrong most of the time.

Of course a hurricane would makes things dramatically worse. But we have no way to pre-determine how easy or hard the season will be.

[tkmorris]

4. You are incorrect

There are a multitude of factors which help to determine how serious a particular season is likely to be, and they are not "notoriously wrong" most of the time. Are they perfect? Of course not, but they are quite useful nonetheless. Your local weatherman doesn't always get it right either but if he/she says it's gonna rain today I bet you pack an umbrella.

[Better Today]

5. I've watched the past five years or so, and they've gotten it wrong each time.

I have no faith in long term forecasters, none. And your analogy of rain today or tomorrow is not at all what is being discussed here. That would be akin to forecasting where and how strongly an existing tropical storm or hurricane will land. What we are discussing here would be akin to looking a 30-day forecasts and deciding today that a month from now I needed to carry an umbrella. I wouldn't do that, would you?

[tkmorris]

8. Did they really? Got it wrong every time?

I really don't know whose forecasts you've been listening to but they have most decidedly NOT "gotten it wrong every time". You care to back that statement up with some actual facts?

The El Nino has passed. Do you know what that is? La Nina conditions are likely to obtain later in the season, as they often do directly after an El Nino. Know what that is? Do you know what the water temperatures are like in the Atlantic basic currently, or how those temps compare to last year? Do you know what the SAL is? How it affects tropical system formation? Do you have any idea what the Bermuda High is, and how it is forecast or where it is forecast to set up this season?

It is quite fashionable to trash hurricane forecasters for not accurately predicting the future, but it is largely unfair. Predicting the severity of a given season in advance is remarkably difficult to do, and many won't do so because it borders on pointless. Preparations for the upcoming season won't be altered in way, so what would be the point? No one will remember if you get it right (you are proof of that) but they will excoriate you if you get it wrong. Nonetheless, some persist in putting their expertise on the line and they do an excellent job of getting it right more often than they do not. They deserve more respect than you are giving them.

[Better Today]

9. I'm not putting that much time into showing you that long term forcasting is

pretty useless at this point, even with hurricanes. However if you care to find appropriately dated and archived predictions and then can find reports of those predictions coming true regarding hurricanes for more than 6 years in a consecutive set of 10 years, I'd be pleased to reconsider my stance.

I notice you don't admit that your "today forecast" was completely off base, nor do you answer whether or not you would commit today to carry an umbrella with the full belief that it will rain, or even be cloudy, a month from now based on long-term forecasting.

[liberal N proud]

2. It could rain oil

Consider that much of the midwest receives summer and early fall moisture from the gulf and that hurricanes pick up moisture out of the gulf and move into the midwest and east, the oil laden rains could wreak havoc.

[corpseratemedia]

6. I was wondering about that..systems in the gulf picking up dispersants and oil particles

and then that goes into our lakes that we use for drinking water..etc.

not that pollutants aren't already in our water systems but a vast storm system from the gulf dropping stuff for days in one area...ugh

[Individualist]

3. It will spread far and wide with or without hurricanes

As noted in the article, a hurricane would accelerate that spread.

[DLnyc]

7. Speaking of which, there is a gale blowing now a bit northeast of the Bahamas

This morning they were predicting it would move north or northwest, but now they seem to be not saying which way they think it will go.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/241054.shtml?


If goes west instead of northwest, we are screwn.

Here's hoping it goes north or northwest.

[DLnyc]

10. good news. Now forecast to move north by northwest

**********
THE SERN CENTER IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
AS THE NWRN CENTER SLOWLY PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE NNW.
**********
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/241054.shtml?

Despite some comments above, these types of predictions (a few days out of major storms) are 95%, or better, accurate, from what I've seen.

(But does look like might develop to a pretty severe storm:
*****
AT THIS TIME THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
*****
)