The only thing that will stop the Gulf Gusher is a relief well injection in 60+ days.

[Statistical]

I hope I am wrong and the top kill or junk shot, or top hat stops the spill but I doubt it.

BP knows this, the US govt knows this, and anybody in the industry knows this. It is the cold hard reality that people want to wish away. It is much easier to pretend BP is intentionally fucking up rather than accept the reality that there IS NO QUICK FIX.

The only proven method to stop flow of oil once BOP is compromised is a relief well. The 4 largest platform spills all required relief wells.

Montara Oil Field - Australia 2009
Length of time till cap: 3 months
Method that finally capped well: relief well
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montara_oil_spill

Spewed for 3 months. Took 5 attempts via relief wells before well has sealed. Australia tried numerous other surface attempt (top kill, dome, surface siphon, etc). Ultimately capped via relief well.


Ixtoc I Oil Platform - Mexico (Gulf) 1979
Length of time till cap: 9 months
Method that finally capped well: relief well
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ixtoc_I_oil_spill

Spewed for 9 months. Took 3 attempts via relief wells before well was sealed. Mexico initially wasted about 2 months with various "domes" to contain the leak. Nothing on ocean floor was successful in providing more than a slightly reduction in oil flow. Ultimately capped via relief well.

Nowruz Oil Platform - Iran 1983
Length of time till cap: 6 months & 26 months.
Method that finally capped well: relief well
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nowruz_%28oil_field%29

Two separate oil gushers. First from when an Iranian super tanker collided with Iranian oil platform. Took 6 months to cap and that was in very shallow water. Yeah we really need dozens of Iranian tankers "cleaning up the Gulf", like we need a bullet to the head. Second gusher was result of Iraqi air-strike sinking another platform in the same oil field. The second leak took over 2 years to cap. Both were ultimately capped via relief well.

The reality is that once oil is freely flowing there is not much that can be done of the ocean floor to contain the situation.

The domes, and siphons, and top hats, and top kills, and junk shots are simply Hail Mary passes. It is unlikely any of them will cap the well. The best we can hope for is some method significantly reduces flow while relief wells are drilled.

First relief well is still over 2 months from completion.

Unless anyone thinks the Iranians, Australians, and Mexicans "allowed" their major spills to last longer than necessary it illustrates how long fixing the situation simply takes.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

1. Optimistic.

[SidDithers]

2. Agreed...

But some DU'ers will still expect their outrage to make the drilling go faster.

Sid

[Statistical]

3. Maybe if we had outraged powered drills the relief wells would already be done.

On a serious note maybe oil companies should have a partially drill relief well complete before drilling into oil pocket?

[readmoreoften]

10. Some DUers wish their outrage was taken seriously before this explosion even happened.

Of course BP can't solve this until a relief well is possible. But this explosion happened due to outrageous behavior, an outrageous speed-up, and an outrageous failure to take safety into consideration--not to mention the lives of their workers. Why? Big profits.

Don't expect people not to be outraged.

[SidDithers]

17. Agreed...

and all that outrage should be directed at those issues. Preventing future drilling is a cause we can all get behind.

But the "BP / Obama / the Navy needs to cap this well and they need to cap it yesterday!!" type posts naive in the extreme.

Sid

[BeFree]

23. So

The government and the oil companies are total fuckups. Incompetent and useless once the crisis happens, and we can never expect any progress. The navy is useless, and we should all just get used to it.

Fuck that, Sid.

[DURHAM D]

4. Agree.

I also think they should go ahead and start 3-5 more relief wells.

[LuvNewcastle]

5. I agree.

They know they can't do anything about the gusher until the other well is dug. They're just pretending that they are doing something in order to placate the public. We all know about the stages of grief. Most of America is still in denial. What will America do when she reaches acceptance?

[DURHAM D]

7. Stop paying their bills. nt

[MineralMan]

6. You're most likely correct.

[thereismore]

8. And Ixtoc was only 50m (160ft) deep. I think you are right. Relief well

the only solution. But given the high pressure in the pocket, who knows if one will be enough - maybe that one will be blown out too. We are so fucked.

[mimitabby]

9. thanks for an illuminating post.

[NNN0LHI]

11. Isn't it usually more like relief well(s) to actually get the job done?

As in several?

I think there are currently two being drilled into this one?

How many did it take in the others?

Then I have read that when they get to the casing BP put down the original hole that sucker is so hard it takes about a week or two just to get through that?

Don

[Statistical]

12. Yeah it often takes multiple attempts.

The only that I know the stats on is the Australian rig which required 5 relief wells.

Haven't found any sources on how many attempts the Mexican & Iranian gushers required. Given the longer timeframe I am guessing "more".

I think BP said something about starting third relief well next week? Don't quote me though.

[kenfrequed]

13. uhm

And... it hasn't occurred to you that the reason this, according to your limited examples, is "the only way to stop it" Might be because... I dunno the oil producers in question were more concerned with maintaining access to the oil over stopping the flow?

[Statistical]

16. A relief well seals the main well.

It isn't used to keep access to the oil.

The simplified explanation is you drill on a slant hitting the main well. You drill right through the concrete and steel casing. Then use pumps in relief rig to push mud into well until it forces oil back miles down the well into pocket. Once that is accomplished cement is pours into the main well and allowed to harden. The main well becomes a solid block of cement. It is never used for anything else.

As far as limited examples as far as I know those are the only spills in which could not be remotely closed.
If BOP can't be closed (which there have been weeks of attempts on this rig) no major spill has ever been sealed without use of relief well.

I really do hope one of these Hail Mary passes connects and they close the well via "alternative" means but if I had to place a bet I would use history as a guide and bet on everything but relief well ultimately failing. I hope I am wrong.

[kenfrequed]

21. Actually that is disengenuous

A relief well can very well be used later to access the resources as the 'plug' of thick material will form above the point where the wells join.

[Statistical]

22. Name a single relief well that has ever been used for production?

You won't find one. They aren't designed for that. To increase drilling speed a relief well uses a much smaller bore. This makes it a poor substitute for production well. Smaller bore means less flow rate & shorter lifespan.


Of course once the leak is capped there is no need to use relief well for production. They didn't in Ixtoc I. The new production well is still there today. They drilled it about 30 miles away.

While it COULD be used for production there is no guarantee it will be and certainly no evidence/history to support that is why relief wells are used.

Relief wells are used because essentially they work just like a main well. We know that with miles of drilling mud in place the pressure of mud will be greater than pressure of oil and it will slow downward towards the oil pocket.

[ljm2002]

14. That's what it's looking like, all right...

...and if the top kill risks making this blowout worse, it might be better not to do it.

Major, tragic FUBAR.

I wonder if the BP guy who decided to ignore those pieces of broken plastic seal is sleeping well these days. I wonder if the BP guy who decided they didn't need to do that last test is sleeping well these days. I wonder if it's the same guy.

He should be fitted for an orange jump suit.

[madrchsod]

15. oil will be hitting europe by then.

it is for certain the entire gulf coast will be coated in oil.

[femrap]

18. I wonder if it will

take longer given the fact that Deepwater Horizon is the deepest of all wells to date.

I can't even look at the birds and animals that are suffering from this...it's fucking heartbreaking.

And the US is in Iraq so to get a steady supply of oil. Isn't it just Karmatic that now we have oil running wild in our waters?

[charlesg]

19. Does anyone know how they steer the drill down 15,000 ft in the mud?

The drill has to intersect the well, which has a very small diameter.
Do they just keep poking around until they hit something?

[laughingliberal]

20. Stopping the gusher is only one part of the problem

Cleaning up the oil that's already escaped is the other. And I don't give a damn where we get the tankers to help in the cleanup so long as we get them and BP pays the bill.

[Statistical]

24. Kick for evening crew.