If they can't ever plug the well, how long will oil gush into the Gulf?

[usregimechange]

:shrug:

[Mojambo]

1. Someone said something about September

But I would imagine it's pretty tough to estimate.

[Individualist]

2. Brian Williams on NBC Nightly News said the rest of our lives.

It's a huge well.

[usregimechange]

Time for a collective panic attack followed by pitch forks and torches

[WeDidIt]

3. August, if absolutely everything with the relief well goes perfect.

That's why I've been saying September, and that assumes success with the relief well.

[JuniperLea]

4. Oh, they can plug it alright...

They would never be able to use it again, so they aren't even considering this action... that's the problem.

How long? Until we all die would be my guess.

[Bluebear]

5. 'Until we all die would be my guess.'

:(

[JuniperLea]

10. I hate to be the harbinger of doom...

But without our oceans, we have no air... we are a closed ecosystem, this once-blue marble we live on is all we have. Fuck it up, and we're doomed.

If this doesn't kill us, it certainly puts us a lot closer to the brink.

Those of us living in the once-beautiful gulf coast states have already seen their own ending. No fishing, no tourism, no income... they will die from the wallet out if not from the oil and chemicals.

[JBoy]

8. That's not correct. The current well will never be used for production.

Whether "Top Hat" is successful, or they have to wait for August and the relief well to be drilled, the result will be the same - the current well will be capped.

They would drill into the reservoir elsewhere to resume extraction. BTW, they have always needed many wells into the same reservoir to get the production level high enough.

[JuniperLea]

14. It is so... I guess you weren't listening... eom

[WeDidIt]

9. That's an ignorant statement

That is the biggest pile of bullshit statement I've ever seen on DU.

There's no fucking way they can ever use that well again. The relief well will produce, that one is done and can NEVER produce.

In fact, it's cost BP 10 times what drilling a new well costs just to cover the spill to date, and they are nowhere near what it will ultimately cost.

[JuniperLea]

15. I guess you weren't listening... eom

[JuniperLea]

18. And how long did they say it would take to drill the relief well?

And how much production will they lose? And how much of their effort to date was spent on getting some of that oil into tankers.

You're really unnecessarily over the top here, Bucko...

[WeDidIt]

22. No, you are over the top

No amount of production from a single well will pay for the damage done to the environment.

To suggest otherwise demonstrates a decided mathematical deficiency.

[JuniperLea]

24. Do you honestly think they are going to pay for the whole thing?

Do you honestly put that level of faith into a company that has done nothing short of raping the Gulf Coast? Does giving a ton of money to investors smack of a company that intends on paying for this massive disaster? Really? Do you honestly think that BP has the wherewithal to stop this? If so, why the delay?

[WeDidIt]

28. You still can't do math

They have ALREADY PAID MORE than it costs to drill a new well. The relief well, which must be drilled even if they cap the current well with the top kill maneuver, WILL PRODUCE.

Trying to claim they are doing everything they can to keep a well that cannot and will never again be capable of producing crude oil for sale gushing oil into the gulf is ridiculous.

[JuniperLea]

32. Whatever, dude... mark my words...

Their negligence was known to them... it wasn't thrust upon them... they knew what they were doing and what they were not doing... they new the risks, gambled, and lost. The financial loss was always possible, and many are now saying it was likely. So you are going to continue in this meme even though BP knew the math, new the risks, and fucked up anyway. They were risking more than it would cost to drill a new well. The smart thing to do is to drill the relief well concurrently with the main well. It's done all the time.

This morning the experts are saying this well may never be capped, and the gusher never stopped until the well runs dry... that this new procedure is risky and could likely make things worse.

Yeah, they were doing the fucking math, right?

[Fool Count]

25. The relief well, which will indeed produce, won't have to be drilled

all the way through to the oil deposit, it only needs to go slightly below the sea floor, costing much less in time and money.
The rest of the way down it will still be the original well. Only the head of it will be capped. Just because BP is forced to
spend a lot of money on clean-up, doesn't mean that they abandon any future efficiency considerations. The clean-up
cost is already a given and cannot be helped, other expenses can and will be optimized by BP.

[whyverne]

12. I thought I was one of the most cynical people around.

But I give the crown to you. You actually believe that they could stop the leak but aren't doing it because they want to use it again? Wow.

[JuniperLea]

13. Where were you when they spelled it out?

When they talked about this early on... when they talked about started the adjacent well... do you actually think the methods they've tried thus far were viable solutions?

[HughMoran]

21. You're not kidding, are you

[JuniperLea]

23. We've seen nothing but smoke and mirrors...

And a horse and pony show. They have done nothing meaningful so far... unless you consider "saving" some of the oil meaningful.

Do you believe BP has the wherewithal to stop this? If so, why the delay?

[HughMoran]

27. It takes 3 months to drill a relief well

That's the only known high percentage for success method of stopping this gusher.

This is an engineering nightmare - blowouts like this are rarely sealed using the techniques BP has tried, but they're trying anyway so as to at least be doing something while the relief well is being drilled.

[BelgianMadCow]

33. I imagine the relief well construction time depends on circumstances to a considerable degree

Nadine brought up a case where it took many months more. I'm pretty sure they are doing this at or beyond the speed limit though.

Doesn't change the fact that every 4 days and Exxon Valdez spill is released...so probably another 15 of them before the relief well is in place.

[Feron]

29. Incorrect.

This well is going to be closed.

BP has already said that they plan to drill another well in the future to tap this reservoir again.

[moondust]

31. That's why it makes sense

for BP to plug this thing as soon as they can rather than try to somehow capture the gushing oil. Not to mention that the cleanup costs they are promising to pay are growing by the second.

[JuniperLea]

34. Incorrect...

This well may never be capped... it may never stop spewing until it's dry.

The procedure they started today has a very small chance of working, but a much higher chance of making the situation worse.

[Jamastiene]

6. Until the Earth finishes bleeding to death.

Not joking. Some people can go ahead and call it hyperbole if they want, but when the consequences of this nightmare finish doing their damage, they won't be laughing then.

[usregimechange]

17. I would assume it would not kill the entire planet, maybe almost all life in the ocean

lets hope they can plug it.

[JuniperLea]

19. If the ocean dies, we die... eom

[jayfish]

26. 60-80% of Atmospheric Oxygen Comes From The Oceans. -NT-

FSH

[KILL THE WISE ONE]

7. until the pressure in the well is equal to or lower then the pressure above the well

and no one knows when that will be

[JBoy]

11. Good news is global warming is adding water to the oceans

which will raise the pressure above the well. So it will stop sooner if we keep burning fossil fuels.

:sarcasm:

[Feron]

30. Always look on the bright side of life. nt

[Brother Buzz]

16. Mother Nature has spent over 30,000 years trying to scab over the seep off Santa Barbara

[Swamp Rat]

20. Long enough to kill us