"Top Kill": Why does everyone say they only have ONE shot at it?

[Poll_Blind]

Just wondering. It's not like a time window for a space launch. What am I missing?

BTW, whatever JJ Abrams paid to have that baby Cloverfield monster swim by in the live shot was worth it.

PB

[SemiCharmedQuark]

1. Well, my understanding is that the odds are not great that this will work

and there is a possibility that it will make things worse.

[brooklynite]

2. I don't think they mean one -time- window...

...I think they mean they can't try it a second time if it doesn't work the first time. I gather they need to properly calibrate the pressure of the mud/concrete they're proposing to inject into the pipe.

[Statistical]

3. Two reasons.

1) This could damage the BOP and make future attempts impossible

2) The BOP and well may already be too damaged for this to ever be sucessful no matter if they try 2, 20, 2000, 200,000 times.
Like trying to send a Volvo to the moon with a bottle rocket. Doesn't matter if you keep trying to decades it is never going to work.

[HughMoran]

13. yep

I'm with you

[Duer 157099]

4. Probably because the concrete will plug up the pipes

that they're going to use to send the mud and then concrete down there.

[Jokinomx]

5. I am not a expert however,

I heard that one risk is that the BOP could break open and allow even more oil to gush out... it all depends on whether the force of the oil coming up is not to high to just blow out the heavy mud with the oil... and of course if the heavy mud doesn't blow out but actually pushes the oil downwards..then they will seal with cement....

I hope it works... that is all I know.

Peace...

[Poll_Blind]

6. Thanks to you all, that helped me understand what they were talking about.

Thanks again!

PB

[CoffeeCat]

7. I'm listening to what everyone else is....

...and it sounds like the blow-out preventer (BOP) could possibly
explode--due to the pressure and force of this operation.

If that happens, then the hole from which the oil is currently flowing, could
be blown open EVEN WIDER.

Then, we have a bigger, gaping chasm from which oil is gushing. I can't even
imagine what that would look like, or the extent of the devastation. You'd
have gigantic areas of oil coming out.

I'm no expert, but it sounds like this is just not going to work. It works on land, but
under water is a different story and with the oil flow and pressure fighting against it--I
just don't see how it works.

What also angers me, is that the downside is so high. We're talking horrendous, paradigm-shifting
consequences if we blow an even bigger hole that dramatically widens the oil-leak. They're
recklessly playing with our planet and with our lives and our future.

[Poll_Blind]

8. I don't think the gaping chasm thing is going to happen. The hole is...

...x inches wide and permits a flow of (whatever). The actual oil is something like 5,000 feet (or more) below the surface of the ocean. If they eff-up this then more oil COULD come out (I think it's a safe bet it will) but it'd still be coming through that single drill hole. Not like that isn't fucked up enough, of course.

PB

[CoffeeCat]

9. but if it blows up...

...wouldn't that single drill hole be blown even wider?

I'm just asking and you seem to understand the process better than I. I
didn't take any engineering courses in college!

[Statistical]

10. Not likely.

The BOP is on top of the drill shaft. If the BOP bursts it will increase the flow due to the fact that currently the BOP is partially closed and flow is restricted by crumpled riser pipe.

However the drill shaft won't get wider just because the BOP is leaking. Remember the drill shaft is through 5 miles of sold rock. There is nothing you could do on the surface to make the drill shaft wider.

[Poll_Blind]

11. Yes, some of it would but since the bore hole is VERY deep into the earth...

...it wouldn't really affect the potential flow through it. Of course if they eff something up the very end of the bore hole could become LESS congested.

Imagine you have a plastic straw two feet long and you hook it up to your garden hose. So water's coming out the end of the straw and that's the only place it would come out. If you cut off 3 inches or six inches off the end of that straw, water's going to come out at basically the same rate that it was when the straw was 2 feet. So since we're talking about a bore-hole that's probably close to a mile through the ground which has a fixed diameter. If there's some even catastrophic problem on the bottom of the ocean, about 99.99% of that borehole is going to remain untouched.

Right now they're trying to push mud under HIGH pressure into that bore hole so that eventually the weight of the mud is as heavy or heavier than the oil which is pushing upward. Once that happens (if it does) part of that mud process involves including at least 2 cement plugs to make sure that mud plug stays in place.

I actually know terribly little, overall.

PB

[CoffeeCat]

12. You know enough!

Thanks...that helps me to better understand what is happening.