Gush Rate Accelerated? - This Looks Really Bad

[HCE SuiGeneris]

From the main CNN page http://www.cnn.com/ go to # LIVE: 'Top kill' underwater view Live Video underneath Teh Poodle's picture on the left hand side. The Live Video shows a VERY severe gush rate.

:scared:

[Poll_Blind]

1. Holy shit, I had a stream going in the background and just switched to it....

...after reading your post. Holy shit!

I looked at the timestamp and objects moving around the vents and this does NOT appear to be sped-up footage.

PB

[HCE SuiGeneris]

2. I know.

The clock is running at normal speed, but the outflow... OMFG

[Poll_Blind]

3. It really does look at least 10x stronger than previous footage. Just a ballpark. When...

...did this start? How many minutes ago?

PB

[CountAllVotes]

4. another link here fyi

http://www.energyboom.com/policy/watch-live-oil-spill-webcam-will-operation-top-kill-stop-oil

[DCBob]

5. That might be expected if they are shooting high pressure mud both down and up into the BOP..

most of that suff expelling might just be the mud... not sure though. I'm just trying to be optimistic here.

[Junkdrawer]

6. They're trying to push the gushing oil back down the pipe...

by pumping in high pressure mud WHILE the top holes and riser leak are still there.

This was expected...

[HCE SuiGeneris]

10. Ok - Sounds good.

So, when should it start to slow with the heavy mud? Not trying to be facetious. I really, really want this to work...

[backscatter712]

43. It could take a day or two.

The objective is to slam enough mud in at high enough pressure to overwhelm the oil flow, and this is while there's uncontrollable leaks above the BOP in the mangled riser pipe.

So, yes, for the time being, we're going to see lots of fluid shooting out of the leaks. As far as I can tell, the fluid coming out right now is mud, not oil, which is a good sign.

Ideally, after doing this for a couple days, the end result will be several hundred feet of well under the BOP filled with mud, exerting thousands and thousands of pounds of force due to gravity upon the oil, holding it down. Then, the final pumping of concrete to seal the well permanently should be fairly easy.

[Poll_Blind]

11. Then is it safe to say the actual "Top Kill" (or whatever it's called) actually only...

...began a few minutes ago? I was watching this when the information came that BP had started the process, oh, around 2pm Eastern. I assumed that we'd see that accelerated rate then, or at least around then.

That is some SERIOUS pressure.

PB

[Junkdrawer]

17. I'm guessing they will keep increasing the pressure until either:

1.) The mud starts pushing the oil down the pipe

2.) Something breaks wide open

So lots of little holes with very high pressure mud is the plan.

However, if you see a huge gaping hole...

[Phoonzang]

7. Think about a hose....

The water normally comes out at a leisurely pace, but when you but a kink in the hose and start narrowing the passage it squirts out more violently. This could be what we're seeing. It could be working.

[doc03]

33. Exactly n/t

[BootinUp]

8. Increased velocity would be normal

but not increased volume. Are you sure its not just a more turbulent (higher velocity) flow?

[bvar22]

47. Increased volume is also normal.

They are pumping large quantities of "heavy mud" under high pressure into the well.
The hope is that at some point, they can overcome the pressure from the oil reservoir, and force it far enough down hole that the weight of the Heavy Mud will reach equilibrium with the formation pressure.
Until this point is reached, there WILL naturally be an increase, perhaps even a large increase in the volume of the discharge. Hopefully, the discharge will change to 100% Heavy Mud at some point.

[BootinUp]

49. The heavy mud has higher viscosity

than the oil, this will result in increased pressure, if the pressure at the BOP head exceeds the well pressure, the mud forces the oil down. It is not a given that the flow will increase, to know that you would have to know how the viscosity compares to the oil at the shear rates before and after.

At least thats my theory and I know a little about non-newtonian fluids, measuring flow rates etc.

[bvar22]

51. Drilling fluids are incompressable.

The viscosity doesn't affect anything but to overall system pressure at the pump end.
This is a matter of volume. What doesn't go "downhole" MUST escape through the BOP.
If everything went "downhole", it would only take about 5 mins to completely kill the well.

bvar22
Directional Driller in the Gulf of Mexico for more years than I like to remember.
drilled two "relief wells" in South Louisiana in the 70s and 80s.

[BootinUp]

52. I defer to your expertise, but of course we don't know

how much is going down nor how fast they are pumping it.

[amborin]

54. fascinating!

[Blue Diadem]

9. BP has a statement at the bottom of their live feed page. I hope that change is what they

are talking about because that's just crazy. I can't even stand to watch that.

Here's the statement on the bottom of their feed: Throughout the extended top kill procedure – which may take up to two days to complete - very significant changes in the appearance of the flows at the seabed may be expected. These will not provide a reliable indicator of the overall progress, or success or failure, of the top kill operation as a whole. BP will report on the progress of the operation as appropriate and on its outcome when complete.
http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/homepage/STAGING/local_assets/bp_homepage/html/rov_stream.html

[DCBob]

13. Yes, I think we wont know anything until they stop shooting mud into the BOP pipe.

I think what we may be seeing now is a mix of oil and the heady mud.

[CountAllVotes]

15. it seems a big slower

?

[HCE SuiGeneris]

16. Thanks for that.

Somewhat encouraging.

[meow mix]

12. i think the mud is coming out to fast to seal anything...

or at least that is my fear

[Poll_Blind]

14. I'm amazed those pipes are holding. That stuff is hosing out like some supercharged...

...underwater volcanic vent or something.

PB

[DCBob]

18. I think the idea is to send mud both up and down at the same time..

The upward mud creates pressure and a partial block in the pipe giving the down flow more pressure downward otherwise much of down flow would just be forced out the top. Basic hydraulics I think.

[Junkdrawer]

19. They're trying to push the gushing oil back down the pipe to the reservoir

WHILE the existing hole are there.

Lots of mud...lots of pressure.

[Ruby the Liberal]

20. Holy crap! Do remember though that BP did say it could look worse before it

finishes. *IF* it is even working.

I will hold out hope for that for now, but wow.

[NYC_SKP]

21. This was expected.

They're taking something spewing under pressure.

And they're adding a NEW source of spewage material under even greater pressure.

Naturally, from a physical sciences point of view, the result will be more material, more spewage.

Until such time as the kill mud begins to overcome the outflow of the well and begins to set, that is.

If successful, after several hours, we should observe less and less, and then possibly no spewage.

:hi:

[DCBob]

22. Here's an excellent graphic of what they are trying to do...

They are pushing mud both up and down into the BOP so not surprising we would see increase flow out the top at least temporarily during the operation.

[Poll_Blind]

23. GREAT infographic- thanks! n/t

PB

[Kali]

45. thanks for that!

no web cams for me, slow dial up

[walldude]

24. At this point they aren't going to stop this.

They had no plan, no ideas, no contingencies, they blew off safety inspections, they caved in on safety regulations, and now it has come back to bite them in the ass. What the Administration should be doing now is calling this a National Security issue and put then Patriot Act to some good use, start preparing to seize BP assets and make damn sure that every penny it costs to clean this mess up, and then restore the oceans, beaches, and marshlands back to some semblance of their original states.

[Poll_Blind]

26. If there ever was a case of a manmade disaster becoming a nat'l sec. issue...

...THIS IS IT.

PB

[DCBob]

25. I think its a good sign the BOP hasn't exploded.. yet

I think many were fearing that with such high pressure injection into a damaged unit.

[Poll_Blind]

27. I still don't really have a good idea how the heck they're going to seal up the leaks at the TOP...

...of the BOP. Like trying to fill a bucket with too many holes with water.

Edit: Nevermind, they're eventually going to pipe in a humongous amount of CEMENT as well, correct?

PB

[Junkdrawer]

28. Remember that the well didn't leak until they took out the mud...

and replaced it with seawater. So if they can fill the whole drill hole with mud again, the weight of the mud might hold the oil back.

[BootinUp]

29. There may be a junk shot to plug the top

if the mud alone does not impede the oil flow.

[DCBob]

32. Yes, they will fill the drill hole, pipe and probably cover the entire BOP with tons of cement.

Hopefully to never be heard from again.

[Statistical]

34. Yup.

Once there is enough pressure from mud in BOP it "should" slowly begin to push the oil down the well. The further the mud pushes the oil down the well the more pressure it puts on the oil. Column of mud has weight and a mile worth of mud has a LOT of weight. At that point they will need to keep adding mud to replace the mud lost at the top of the BOP.

Once that happens the situation is in equilibrium. The pressure of oil is held back by an equal amount of pressure created by a mile long column of mud.


Then you start adding cement instead of mud. Pushing the drilling mud even deeper into shaft and filling shaft with hundreds of meters of solid cement. Harden the cement and you have a 100m long "plug".

Remember the entire time mud will be flowing out of the top of the BOP. It will be at least 24 hours before they will even know if they can generate sufficient mud pressure to begin to force the oil down the well.

[bvar22]

48. Sounds like you've worked on those damned old rigs.

I did.
For more years than I like to admit.

[Statistical]

57. No just as an analyst I tend to want to know "why?" and "how?"

So when I hear about top kill I immediately think why are they doing this and how does it work? :)

Then call it an occupational hazard but I feel compelled to get the answers to those questions.

I have a friend from highschool who now lives in LA and works on rigs as an engineer. Most of what I have learned is second hand through him.

[backscatter712]

41. Basically, they're slamming enough mud in there to force it down the well.

With a large enough flow, and assuming the BOP holds, some of the mud shoots out the leaks, some of the mud goes down the other way - forcing down the oil, and creating a big vertical column of heavy viscous mud that will weigh down on top of the oil and hold it down. Then the concrete's pumped in to plug the well permanently, once the mud's holding the oil down.

It's too early to tell whether this is working or not.

[earthside]

30. I think the pipe is disintegrating.

The latest pictures I've seen show holes/leaks at the kink in the riser pipe getting bigger. In fact, in the past fifteen minutes or so, it looks like a fourth rupture might be opening up.

[Junkdrawer]

31. Now THAT would be a problem. Which may be why they increased the mud pressure...

It's a race against time and damage now...

[Statistical]

35. Well the riser rupturing isn't that big of an issue.

Remember the riser is up stream of the BOP which is where they intend to force the flow of oil back.

Imagine you have a garden hose. Cut a whole in garden hose and turn on water. Now measure the flow out of hose. Next cut three more holes in hose. Turn on water. Compare total flow. It will be roughly the same. Multiple leaks but same total volume released.

Now if the BOP blows.... well that would be really bad.

[Junkdrawer]

36. Isn't the CNN view from the top of the BOP?

Wouldn't losing the top of the BOP be a problem?

[Statistical]

37. I would imagine so.

My guess (and just a guess) is what we are looking at is the bottom of the riser pipe that connects to the BOP.
When rig sank the riser pipe bent at the top of BOP and that is the source of one of the two leaks.

The riser pipe is "downstream" from the BOP and the attempt to stop flow. If it ruptured or new holes formed it wouldn't be as bad as say a rapture on the actual BOP.

[Junkdrawer]

38. A ruptured BOP IS game over. Losing the riser MAY be game over or....

it may mean "pump as fast as we got, this is our last shot!"

I don't have the numbers.

[backscatter712]

44. That's my impression. The BOP isn't busted, the riser pipe is.

The riser pipe was sitting right on top of the BOP, but when the Deepwater sank, that riser pipe kinked and bent right above the BOP, and that's where one of the leaks is (the other one is a little ways away from the BOP, still in the riser pipe.

My bet is that the engineers figured on the riser pipe ripping open when they planned this out, and decided to power through it. As long as the BOP itself holds, it's game on. If the top-kill works, there will be thousands of tons of mud down in the well under the BOP, and the weight of all that mud will hold the oil down, and stop the gusher entirely.

I hope it works.

[lamp_shade]

39. Is it me or does it look like it has slowed down a bit?

[likesmountains 52]

40. I was wondering the same thing.

[undeterred]

42. I hope we're not watching the Finale of

The Gulf of Mexico.

[Skink]

46. didn't Bruce willis make a movie about this?

[Stevepol]

50. I think the accelerated flow was because of the upcoming attempt to force-feed mud.

I heard one explanation where the guy said that BP had to first blow off certain parts of the shut-off valve so they could pump the mud into the pipe. I think when they blew off the valves or seals or whatever is when the increased flow was seen. But then very soon they began forcing the drilling mud into the pipe. Taht's why the color changed to half brown and half black. The brown was the mud being thrown back up by the pressure from the leak. They kept pouring in the mud, however, and maybe there has been modest success because some of the later reports indicate that the flow has decreased or perhaps at least temporarily stopped. It's possible that the mud will work. The mud reacts to pressure by swelling and hardening, thus shutting off the flow, I believe is what the guy said. IN order for that to happen they have to fill the pipe to a certain level w/ the mud.

But they won't know if the flow is entirely stopped for a day or more. If and when the flow stops, they hope to use cement or concrete, something like that to permanently seal off the well.

[BootinUp]

53. Something is happening just now

the video is now obscured by a mud cloud.

[paparush]

55. Didn't BP announce, before this procedure, that flow rate will change during the procedure?

Didn't they make a public announcement to that affect?

[chill_wind]

56. Interesting and informative questions and comments.

I learn a lot from fellow DUers every new day.