Foreboding Signs Forming In The Tropics - Houston Chron

[WillyT]

Foreboding signs forming in the tropics
Feds predict at least 8 hurricanes this season
By ERIC BERGER
HOUSTON CHRONICLE
May 28, 2010, 12:14AM

<snip>

Scientists have tracked ocean temperatures in the hurricane-prone waters of the Atlantic since the end of World War II, but never have they seen a run-up to hurricane season as sobering as this one.

The tropics are even warmer than the toasty waters that spurred the 2005 hurricane season into such dizzying activity, with 28 named storms including Katrina, Rita and Wilma.

Seasonal forecasters — a cautious lot, as the science of predicting storms remains an imperfect art — are nevertheless wary as the hurricane season begins Tuesday.

“The coming season looks very active based upon the latest data we've seen,” said Phil Klotzbach, who along with Colorado State University scientist Bill Gray publishes a widely regarded seasonal forecast. “The tropics are super warm right now.”

That doesn't necessarily mean a repeat of the hyperactive 2005 season. There remain many unknowns, such as the level of wind shear in August, September and October.

The latest Colorado State forecast predicts 15 named storms this year, about 50 percent more than an average year, and eight hurricanes. That's consistent with the forecasts issued by numerous private and academic groups.

However, on Thursday the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the federal agency that manages the National Hurricane Center, upped the ante by predicting 14 to 23 named storms and eight to 14 hurricanes this season.

“The main uncertainty in this outlook is how much above normal the season will be,” said Gerry Bell, NOAA's lead seasonal forecaster.

The midpoint of NOAA's prediction is 18.5 storms, a far higher number than it has ever forecast in its decade of publishing predictions.

Several climatic factors have caused forecasters concern, but warm seas are the primary driver of their predictions. Warm water fuels hurricanes.

<snip>

More: http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/chronicle/7025950.html

:scared:

[kestrel91316]

1. They said LAST year was gonna be at least average, and IIRC we

didn't see a single named hurricane, or at least none that made landfall.

[WillyT]

2. Just Passing Along The Info...

:shrug:

[NeedleCast]

8. Predictions have been over-estimated since 2005

I think it was sort of a backlash against undre-predicting. Hurricanes are fickle beasts.

There is no question though, that the spill is going to heat up gulf waters higher and faster than usual. This may or may not impact hurricane season, as many early season hurricanes tend steer clear of the gulf while later season hurricanes often transit or even form in the gulf or carribean.

Sucks to say this, but a solid, slow moving Cat-3 would be an excellent dispersant for gulf oil, I think.

[neverforget]

9. The reason why last years hurricane season wasn't bad was because of El Nino

in the Pacific which creates lots of wind shear over the Main Development Region (MDR) in the Atlantic. Hurricanes need low wind shear (as one factor) in order to develop.

[kestrel91316]

13. But they always know when El Nino is coming........did they just fail to factor it in??

[neverforget]

14. Sometimes El Nino can get really strong or weak quickly which makes

forecasting difficult. Conditions for El Nino last year didn't appear until July.
http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/1927662/el_nio_will_be_returning_for_2009_2010.html?cat=58

If you want to keep up on Hurricane season or anything weather related, I recommend Dr Jeff Masters at
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html. He has lots of great information.

[smirkymonkey]

3. I wonder if we are going to see any major hurricanes further up

along the Eastern Seaboard, from what I understand we are long overdue.

[amborin]

4. plus, read a post saying dark oily surface of GOM will attract more heat & poss intensify hurricanes

[Urban Prairie]

5. Even if BP were to successfully kill the gusher today

Obviously there still is, of course, a massive amount of crude oil and dispersant chemicals on and deep within the GOM. President Obama made no mention of the threat of hurricane activity later this coming summer and fall, nor did any member of the MSM question him about that possibility. As I have posted in another thread, I feel very strongly that FEMA should be drawing up AT LEAST preliminary plans right now to safely coordinate and organize a massive evacuation of any Gulf coast state that may be threatened by any category of hurricane(s) or tropical storm(s) that might potentially enter the GOM.

If FEMA instead were to wait for tropical storms or suspicious low pressure areas to form in the Atlantic, before beginning to formulate any type of massive (and I do mean massive) evacuation and/or alert the residents of each state where the storm(s) landfall might occur or could be affected. Even a week advance notice may be woefully insufficient to evacuate possibly tens of millions, depending on the strength, direction, and speed of any hurricane, IMO.

[spinbaby]

6. Hey, maybe the hurricanes will clean up the oil spill

:hide:

[old mark]

7. Someone on CNNsaid that seriously this morning - storms will

"disperse" the oil.....like that is a good thing?


mark

[Feron]

11. Yes and no.

Hurricanes can help break down the oil by dispersing it. It will also clean off existing oil on beaches and rocks.

Unfortunately it will also bring oil to previously unaffected areas and further into the wetlands.

[RagAss]

10. Take it from this Floridian....they say this every fucking year !

I wish they would just expose these fuckers for the fucking shaman that they are and stop giving them even a snot's worth of credibility !!!!!

[Feron]

12. Very true. The June 1st wishcasting extraganza.

Forecasters almost always predict more storms than actually occur. The only notable exception is of course the 2005 season.

[depakid]

15. Record sea temperature anomalies generally aren't things that knowledgeable people scoff at...

[IDemo]

16. Bill Gray on Global Warming: "we'll look back and see what a hoax this was."

http://www.denverpost.com/harsanyi/ci_3899807

Gray is perhaps the world's foremost hurricane expert. His Tropical Storm Forecast sets the standard. Yet, his criticism of the global warming "hoax" makes him an outcast.

"They've been brainwashing us for 20 years," Gray says. "Starting with the nuclear winter and now with the global warming. This scare will also run its course. In 15-20 years, we'll look back and see what a hoax this was."