It will take 7 years for the oil deposit to empty if uncapped

[charlesg]

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2010/0529/BP-top-kill-falters-Macondo-well-keeps-spewing-oil-into-the-Gulf

BP 'top kill' falters: Macondo well keeps spewing oil into the Gulf
It will take 7 years for the oil deposit below the Deepwater Horizon well to empty if left alone. On Saturday, BP acknowledged it may abandon its best chance so far to cork the well: the 'top kill'.
By Patrik Jonsson, Staff writer / May 29, 2010

A third attempt to jam a junk shot of shredded tires and golf balls into the broken-down blowout preventer on top of BP's Macondo well in the Gulf of Mexico has failed, darkening prospects for BP's high-stakes "top kill" maneuver that began Wednesday. In a dramatic turn from early optimism, BP chief operating officer Doug Suttles told reporters in Grand Isle, La., on Saturday that so far the attempt to stem the flow using heavy drilling mud and junk shots has not worked.

The company is now reevaluating whether it will keep trying the top kill or move onto the next backup plan, placing a reconfigured cofferdam over the runaway riser on top of the well. A similar plan failed earlier this month. "We'll get this under control," Coast Guard Commander Thad Allen said on Thursday, announcing some headway in the effort to push down, and stall, the geyser.

At 18,000 feet into the bedrock lies the Macondo oil deposit, which, thanks to the Deepwater Horizon accident, is now spewing its crude cargo at between 14,000 and 19,000 barrels of oil a day into the Gulf of Mexico. It is Day 40 of the disaster. Estimated by BP to hold 50 million barrels, the seam of oil has emptied as much as 740,000 barrels (one barrel is 42 gallons), or about 1.5 percent of the total. Because of the immense pressures of the earth's innards, geologists say, the deposit will completely unload into the Gulf unless the Deepwater Horizon well is capped.

With those numbers literally pressing up from the earth's core, BP and government scientists are running out of immediate options to kill the runaway well. Another back-up plan in the works is to place a second blowout preventer on top of the one that failed after a "kick" of gas exploded on the Deepwater Horizon on April 20, killing 11 and causing the nation's worst-ever oil spill disaster. The most certain way to stop the leak is the drilling of a relief well that would take pressure off the main wellhead and allow BP to cap it with cement. That work is underway, but could take another 60 days or more to complete. Using the higher estimates, by then up to another 1.2 million barrels of oil could have leaked out, putting the total at nearly 2 million barrels. The Exxon Valdez spilled 257,000 barrels. At the current rate, emptying the entire Macondo deposit would take just over 7 years...

[NNN0LHI]

1. We need to stop drilling and permanently cap any other wells currently being drilled

That order needs to be given soon.

Don

[aquart]

2. Question: When the hurricanes come, how far inland will that oil blow?

How much inland damage will it do? Can BP be sued for it? I want them sued by anyone who can hire a lawyer. I want them destroyed. I want them so badly damaged that they can't even regroup under another name.

[NNN0LHI]

4. Don't forget Halliburton

They have some deep pockets too.

Don

[slackmaster]

11. A major hurricane would blow the oil all the way to Saskatchewan

:argh:

[aquart]

13. I would like to believe you're kidding.

Isn't the oil too heavy to carry that far?

[AngryOldDem]

15. It would most likely be atomized, which is just as bad (IMO) as having it rain an oil slick.

I have visions of New Orleans coated in oil, with oil rain falling as far north as Tennessee (or farther) depending on the strength of the storm.

Time is running out on this particular piece of the equation. The tropics are already becoming active, and this is predicted to be a bad hurricane season anyway.

[Lochloosa]

12. This map will give you some idea. It's bad.

[rzemanfl]

3. K & R. I can't think of a comment that isn't profane. n/t

[flamingdem]

5. Just think of the BILLIONS more BP will have made by then! nt

[DURHAM D]

6. I would like to see the source of the"7 years".

I don't buy a figure certain.

[Are_grits_groceries]

7. Math:

1B barrels in the reservoir. (That is actually a low estimate.)

50,000 barrels a day (who knows)

365 days a year x 50,000 = 18.25M barrels a year

1B divided by 18.25 M = 55 years

yay!

[Oregone]

8. As more escapes, the pressure should drop, right?

Which means less escaping in the same amount of time....but this will not lead to an infinite gush

When the pressure drops below the water pressure, the oil will no longer gush (even if there is oil left)

So...well...I don't think that calculation you proposed is necessarily accurate. I think its a lot more complex to figure out how long and how much will come out over many years, which will change year by year

[Are_grits_groceries]

9. I'm sure it's much more complex.

I was doing very rough calculations.

They estimate there are 3-4B barrels down there. Use that 55 years as very high end estimate. 1 year is awful enough.

[Oregone]

10. It doesn't matter how much is down there

What matters is what the pressure of the oil is vs the pressure of the water at that depth, and how much the leak impacts the oil pressure per day.


When you open a bottle of soda, you get a release, but most of the pop will stay right in that bottle once the pressure is released. Sorta the same.


Anyway, yes, one week is bad enough

[BeFree]

14. 2,000psi in water at that depth

Even if the pressure equalizes, since oil floats on water, the water will fill the reservoir, pushing all the oil out.

[Trillo]

16. That's an interesting stat.

If it were to continue that long, and presuming it all floated to the surface due to no more added dispersant, how much of the earth's surface would it cover?

[Kablooie]

17. Whew! That's good to hear. I thought it would take 20 years.