Completely theoretical question about gusher

[Duer 157099]

If the gusher were left to just gush to completion, how long would it take, and what effect would it have on the seabed floor? Seems to me there would have to be some sort of displacement such as a collapse.

[Junkdrawer]

1. I asked that several weeks ago...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=389&topic_id=8347660

[Duer 157099]

9. Thanks for that link

Although I still don't know the answer to the second part of my question.

[Angry Dragon]

2. I read somewhere on DU this past week

someone said 7 years

[charlesg]

3. It's seven years:

BP 'top kill' falters: Macondo well keeps spewing oil into the Gulf
It will take 7 years for the oil deposit below the Deepwater Horizon well to empty if left alone. On Saturday, BP acknowledged it may abandon its best chance so far to cork the well: the 'top kill'.
By Patrik Jonsson, Staff writer / May 29, 2010
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2010/0529/BP-top-kill-falters-Macondo-well-keeps-spewing-oil-into-the-Gulf

[Warren Stupidity]

4. Huh?

You mean that you think that the oil is supporting the 'seabed floor' and that sucking all the oil out will cause said floor to collapse?

No.

BP estimates 50M barrels in the seam they drilled. So at 20,000 barrels a day that would be 2,500 days - which works out to 6.8 years. At 5,000 barrels/day it would take about 27 years.

[Duer 157099]

8. Well I'm not sure what I think

All I know is that the oil is occupying space of some sort and that when the oil flows upward, something has to take the place of the oil that just left. I just don't know what that "something" is.

[Warren Stupidity]

12. You have a scale problem.

While Earth is not a big planet as planets go, it is much bigger than your current conception.

[Duer 157099]

13. I can admit to that; but how does that answer the question?

No matter the size of the big picture, the small picture is that in one specific location a mile under the ocean, there is a displacement going on. What replaces the oil? Solid or liquid?

[Warren Stupidity]

16. It is a relative small amount of stuff

and it is 17,000 feet below the seabed. There is a whole lot of intervening stuff and a whole lot of intervening supporting structure. Think of it as a layer of rock way below the surface that is going to be a bit 'dryer' than it used to be, not some huge subterranean pool into which the gulf is going to collapse.

[lob1]

5. I'm really not sure about this, but it seems to me I heard they replace the oil,

and least on land wells, with water. I suppose they'd do the same in the ocean. It's supposed to prevent collapse.

[Warren Stupidity]

6. It is a relatively small hole that goes 17,000 feet down.

Nothing is going to collapse.

[TheWraith]

7. That would take quite a long time.

At a rate of 15,000 barrels a day... maybe a year. Or two. Or three... We really don't know how much it would spew before it stopped or slowed down. But you can bet your ass it would be enough to effectively destroy the ecosystem along the gulf coast.

[Junkdrawer]

10. How about at 150,000+ barrels a day? They're cutting the riser off now....

If they fail at the LMRP and secondary BOP....

[Warren Stupidity]

14. Yes that occurred to me too - they are now increasing the flow rate.

So when plan 9 fails --- the torrent is going to be x times greater than it was before. I'm not sure if it matters a whole lot if 50M barrels gets dumped in 3 years, 7 years or 27 years, well it probably does, but it is just a massive catastrophe no matter what.

[TheWraith]

15. At 150,000 barrels a day, a better measurement...

...might be how long it would take to cover the entire Gulf of Mexico. About 100 days.

[dipsydoodle]

11. No cause to collapse

its only a 7" or so tube. The high pressure at that depth would simply close it.

[secondwind]

17. I'VE HEARD IT WOULD TAKE 24 YEARS TO DEPLETE THE GUSHER ENTIRELY. 24 YEARS!!

[datasuspect]

18. it depends how big any hole inside the earth is

who can tell?