Conventional wisdom poll: how many Senate seats will Democrats win or lose?

[Radical Activist]

I saw another thread linking to an article which mentioned the conventional wisdom that Democrats will lose Senate seats and may lose the majority. Where does this conventional wisdom come from? Whose wisdom? Let's see what the conventional wisdom is outside the beltway on Democratic Underground.

How many Senate seats do you think Democrats will win or lose in the mid-term election?

[MadBadger]

1. In the End they lose FL, IN, AR, DE, ND. Possibly Harry Reid's seat, but we win OH

[Radical Activist]

2. I think we'll take KY.

I'm not watching the other states but I think FL and AR will be close and are winnable, especially if Halter wins the AR run-off.

[yella_dawg]

3. Other - Things are weird right now.

No precedent for this kind of global crisis. Prognostication is a colossal waste of time.

[Radical Activist]

4. Most of DU is a waste of time.

I'm not sure what crisis you're referring to. Global warming? That's still far more serious than the oil leak.

[yella_dawg]

6. Let's make a list.

Global warming.
Imminent fresh water shortage globally.
EU financial collapse.
Slow motion collapse of global commercial real estate.
Imminent prime mortgage crisis due to recent wave of adjustable resets.
Dollar instability.
The oil spill, of course.
North Korea
Thailand
Kirghistan
Shooting war on the Mexican border. (I live in Texas. Trust me, the situation is much worse than main stream media admits.)
God knows what just happened with Israel.

Add yours.

[Radical Activist]

8. And yet, a person can still take time enjoy life and idly speculate about the election.

The media campaigns for the reality it wants by saying something is "conventional wisdom" and publishing polls. It's necessary to define conventional wisdom among ourselves and discuss reality as it is rather than accepting the false reality fed to us by the corporate press.

[yella_dawg]

10. Excuse my choice of words.

I didn't intend a putdown, I simply meant that the situation is so unstable that I don't believe that prognostication can be accurate at this point.


Sorry.

[Radical Activist]

27. I see.

I would agree that polls taken today aren't a good predictor of what will happen in November.

[Radical Activist]

5. Democrats will pick up seats currently held by Republicans in MO, KY, and OH. Maybe NH and FL too.

Gains will offset any losses.

[MadBadger]

9. How on Earth will Meek win in FL? Unless you're counting Crist as almost a win at this point

[Radical Activist]

11. Some have let polls decide the race for them.

That's a shame since polls typically under-represent black voters, who also tend to break late in the election. We're a long way from election day so it's foolish to take polls too seriously. It's the ultimate example of people letting the corporate press and their cooked-up, bullshit polls determine the outcome of an election. Meek only needs 35%-40% to win. He has plenty of time to build support and introduce himself to voters. He only needs the Democratic base vote while Rubio and Crist split Republicans and Independents.

If Democrats lose this seat we'll only have ourselves to blame for letting fear and cowardice steal an easy victory.

[27inCali]

13. I'm with you -Fuck the Corporate Media

It's there for the taking, if only we actually take it.

[MadBadger]

17. Not sure how you can blame the media, but ok.

[Radical Activist]

19. Media publishes polls showing Meek in third

without telling some very obvious reasons why we should expect Meek's numbers to go up. Democrats take it seriously and move to Crist. It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

[27inCali]

30. I'm saying the media runs bogus, biased polls

to kill voter turn out.

If you think your guy is going to lose by ten points, you might not come out and vote. If you know it's close, you get pumped and get out there and vote.

the media narrative that it will be a Republican Tsunami is a load of bullshit with a grain of truth to it in an attempt to kill the morale of potential Dem voters,.

[DCBob]

16. Crist will win and caucus with the Dems....

That a +1 gain for the good guys!

[Radical Activist]

7. Republican incumbents may have upset losses in NC, IA, LA, and AZ.

The media pundits take their own polls too seriously. Polls will change much between now and November, especially when Obama is on the campaign trail.

[27inCali]

12. lemme see

Dorgan's seat is probably a gonner. But it looks like Rand Paul might just hand us Bunnings old seat and a whole bunch of pissed off moblized Mexican-Americans are probably going to knock out either Hayworth or McCain. Crist is most likely to win, pretty likely to caucaus with Dems or at least side with Dems for some crucial votes. Halter's got a chance to win if he can knock off Lincoln, looks like that's pretty possible. I think Reid can save his seat. Sestack looks like he knows what he's doing and I think Boxer will hold on. All those races are close and anyone's game, so it really doesn't play into the fake MSM narrative does it.

the House is going to be a lot harder but I think folks will be surprised how many House districts have shifted Left due to the explosion of suburbs in previously pretty rural areas, a good example is CA 11 where I predict McNerny will hold on to his seat which is deeply relevent because he presents a lot of the city of Stockton which is experiencing major, major economic pain and seems like it should be ground zero for blind anti-incumbent rage. If the Rs can't capitalize there, they aren't going to flip 40 seats.

it's all about the job reports for the next few months, if we are averaging 300,000 jobs or so created every month for the next couple months, Rs are shit out of luck no matter how much the MSM carries water for them.

[tiptoe]

14. Depends on the ELECTION FRAUD -- see:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=8445501&mesg_id=8457898

[nevergiveup]

15. It is going to be crazy this fall

I do not think anyone has a clue how the oil spill in the Gulf is going to play especially if it continues into the late summer/fall. Even with the mini scandal on Kirk I do think we probably end up losing Illinois and Arkansas is likely gone forever from Democrats even if Halter wins but he certainly has a better shot than Lincoln. I think Paul will win easily in Kentucky. The one really big upset I predict is Iowa. I think Grassley is going down.

[Radical Activist]

18. Illinois is not voting for a Republican Senator.

You have to have much bigger scandals than Alexis' little bank issue to lose as a Democrat in Illinois. It's mostly a media-driven controversy that has little meaning to voters. Alexi is a good campaigner and he's better known to downstate swing voters than his suburban opponent.

[Radical Activist]

20. I wonder how many voters in this poll are Republicans and how many

are just negative defeatists. I wonder which camp hurts the progressive movement more.

[moriah]

21. I honestly believe that at least Arkansas is going to go Republican.

I plan to do everything I can to stop it, but the tactics will be different depending on who wins the primary runoff.

We know the opponent is Boozman. He's ran nearly unchallenged for Congress in my district the last few elections (I live in NWA, his district -- in 2008 he was unchallenged except by a Green Party member, so I voted for the Green Party.) He's got name recognition and "public trust" (hah!) because he's served for awhile. Blanche isn't well-liked, but she is well-known and has won multiple elections. Halter is going to mobilize the Democrats more, but the moderates/slight conservatives who have been crucial in keeping Blanche in office will likely vote for Boozman in comparison to a more liberal candidate. Sadly, Arkansas is not a very liberal state. The key to a Halter victory will be mobilizing Democrats state-wide, especially in districts that have not consistently voted for Boozman for many years... the Delta and other areas.

Midterm elections are won by turnout. Since I live in Boozman's congressional district I'll be doing my best to mobilize Democrats to come out and vote here, but I have a feeling he'll win this area of the state. I live in Benton County, which is pretty damn red. While I'll be doing my best to do word of mouth here in Benton County, I'm going to focus my attempts to get Democrats to go vote to Washington County, where there are a lot of college students... that county is much bluer than here, and is only 30 minutes south of me. Maybe if we can get enough liberals there to come out to the polls then it will offset the conservatives who are more traditionally inclined to vote in midterm elections.

What scares me is complacency. Sadly our party has a tendency to sit on our asses (no pun intended) when things are going well for us, instead of continuing to fight. It's going to take significant effort to get all of the people who voted for Obama in the general election to vote in a midterm. If we can do that, we can either hold our own in the Senate or perhaps gain a seat or two. If we can't... we're going to lose seats, the question is how many.

[Radical Activist]

23. "Midterm elections are won by turnout."

If that's the case then it sounds like the candidate who can motivate enthusiastic support from Democrats is more likely to win this year, especially if Boozman has appeal among moderates. I hope Halter wins the primary.

Lincoln being replaced with a Republican isn't much of a loss, frankly. She's almost never there on the most difficult votes and she helps water down what does pass. She doesn't help reach the goal of passing a progressive agenda.

[moriah]

25. "Lincoln being replaced with a Republican isn't much of a loss."

I strongly disagree, being Boozman's constituent at the moment. He is strongly anti-abortion, anti women's rights, and the only letter I've ever written to him that he responded favorably to was one asking for funding for the National Center for Missing Adults, the group created and funded by Kristen's Law -- named after Kristen Modafferi, a college student who had only recently became an adult and is still missing after disappearing on UCLA's campus. I pointed out cases of missing adults in his district and asked him to help them. But his responses to letters regarding abortion and women's rights were enough to make me want to tear up the letters in frustration.

Blanche may be a moderate, but she is at least going to defend my right to choose. Boozman would definitely be a worse person to have in the Senate -- all of Blanche's negatives plus some.

[Radical Activist]

26. I don't see the right to choose being threatened by the US Senate.

There's too strong of a pro-choice majority, and legally there isn't much they can do with Obama in office without amending the constitution. On the other hand, the ability to pass climate change legislation is threatened by Lincoln, as well as the right to organize a union, a strong health care bill, and so on. I agree with your strong reasons for believing that Boozman would be a worse Senator than Lincoln, but having Lincoln in the Senate is a barrier to several key issues on which she could be the deciding vote. She's a roadblock to progress. It's extremely unlikely that Boozman will be the deciding vote on choice. It's very likely that Lincoln will, once again, be the deciding vote against multiple important issues.

[Midwestern Democrat]

22. Right now, I would guess we lose seven:

Five are gone for sure: North Dakota, Delaware, Arkansas, Indiana, Nevada

The four most vulnerable races after this are:
Illinois
Colorado
Pennsylvania
California

I think we hold PA and CA, but I wouldn't be surprised to lose IL and CO.

[Radical Activist]

24. IL isn't putting a Republican in the Senate.

A Democrat has to seriously screw things up for himself to lose a statewide election in IL. The worst polls were all taken right after his family bank was seized. That problem will fade when there are no major new developments that implicate Alexi. The Republican base is unenthusiastic about Kirk. Alexi is a good campaigner with lots of campaign money. The undecideds will break for the Democrat, as they always do in IL.

Way too many assumptions are being made on current polls. They have nothing to do with where the electorate will be in November. You can't assume Democrats won't pick up current GOP seats like KY, MO, and NC.

[Radical Activist]

28. Tuesday bump.

[racaulk]

29. We're still five months out, so it's next to impossible to say for sure.

So much can happen, both good and bad, between now and then.

If election day were tomorrow, here's how I think it would shake out:

Republicans have a good chance of picking up:
Arkansas
North Dakota
Nevada (!!!)
Delaware
Indiana

Democrats have a good chance of picking up:
Missouri
Ohio

I would have placed Pennsylvania in the blue-to-red category, but I think Specter's recent loss in his primary will help keep that seat safer for the Dems as Sestak is a stronger GE candidate, IMHO. Also, if Crist wins in Florida as an Independent, I still expect him to join the Republican caucus, effectively keeping that seat red.

There could be other seats at play, but I think the seats above are the ones that are most likely to change parties. So that would leave us at a -3 situation. Our majority will not be as large, but I have a very hard time seeing a scenario where Republicans will regain control of the Senate in January.

:hi:


Edited to add: If Rand Paul keeps saying stupid things and hanging himself, I think we may have a shot in Kentucky. It's still too early for me to say that with any certainty, though.

[Radical Activist]

31. Nevada is the one seat I'd be happy to lose.

We need a new Senate leader.

I'll believe in Crist caucusing with Democrats when I see it. And I hope he won't have the opportunity.