WOW! Kos to sue Research 2000 for fraudulent polling results!

[berni_mccoy]

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/6/29/880185/-More-on-Research-2000

I have just published a report by three statistics wizards showing, quite convincingly, that the weekly Research 2000 State of the Nation poll we ran the past year and a half was likely bunk.

Since the moment Mark Grebner, Michael Weissman, and Jonathan Weissman approached me, I took their concerns seriously and cooperated fully with their investigation. I also offered to run the results on Daily Kos provided that they 1) fully documented each claim in detail, 2) got that documentation peer reviewed by disinterested third parties, and 3) gave Research 2000 an opportunity to respond. By the end of last week, they had accomplished the first two items on that list. I held publication of the report until today, because I didn't want to partake in a cliche Friday Bad News Dump. This is serious business, and I wasn't going to bury it over a weekend.

We contracted with Research 2000 to conduct polling and to provide us with the results of their surveys. Based on the report of the statisticians, it's clear that we did not get what we paid for. We were defrauded by Research 2000, and while we don't know if some or all of the data was fabricated or manipulated beyond recognition, we know we can't trust it. Meanwhile, Research 2000 has refused to offer any explanation. Early in this process, I asked for and they offered to provide us with their raw data for independent analysis -- which could potentially exculpate them. That was two weeks ago, and despite repeated promises to provide us that data, Research 2000 ultimately refused to do so. At one point, they claimed they couldn't deliver them because their computers were down and they had to work out of a Kinkos office. Research 2000 was delivered a copy of the report early Monday morning, and though they quickly responded and promised a full response, once again the authors of the report heard nothing more.
...

Much more at the link. Now THAT is some naked honesty and bare transparency.

[Gman]

1. Was it incompetence at Research 2000 or worse?

Is R2K an arm of Rasmussen and a secret RW polling outfit?

[berni_mccoy]

2. Based on their reluctance to hand over the raw data....

I'd say it was not negligence, but intent. But that is just my opinion.

[backscatter712]

5. Good old fashioned fraud.

The statistical analysis that triggered this showed patterns that indicated that the numbers were not from random sources, but from people trying to imitate randomness, which means that R2k had people just making the numbers up instead of doing actual polls.

[no limit]

3. Sounds like Research 2000 is some company based out of a kids basement.

[sufrommich]

4. Wow, I'd say Reseach 2000's credibility just went

bye-bye.

[berni_mccoy]

6. Yep.

[blogslut]

7. kicking

:kick:

[Scurrilous]

8. K & R

:thumbsup:

[pintobean]

9. K&R

[NJmaverick]

10. K & R!

[KharmaTrain]

11. We May Learn More Than The Pollsters Would Like...

I was/am a regular reader of the polls on DKos and 538...and this definitely was a surprise considering how much trust Kos had put in Research 2000.

This was a bold move...and maybe one that could open the door to the dark underside of the polling biz...how they can extrapolate and skew numbers and why they do it. It'll be interesting if the "methodology" and the results really do jive. We may learn that the entire polling game is rigged (as if we didn't need much to prove that about Rasmussen) and may even answer some critical questions as to why a candidate appears to be doing well in polling or in "exit" polling and then loses the general by a large margin.