We're in a One-and-a-Half Dip Recession

[laughingliberal]

We're not in a double-dip recession yet. We're in a one and a half dip recession.

Consumer confidence is down. Retail sales are down. Home sales are down. Permits for single-family starts are down. The average work week is down. The only things not down are inventories -- unsold stuff is piling up in warehouses and inventories of unsold homes are rising -- and defaults on loans.

The 1.5 dip recession should be causing alarm bells to ring all over official Washington. It should cause deficit hawks to stop squawking about future debt, blue-dog Democrats to stop acting like Republicans, and mainstream Democrats to get some backbone.

The 1.5 dip recession should cause the president to demand a large-scale national jobs program including a new WPA that gets millions of Americans back to work even if government has to pay their wages directly. Included would be zero-interest loans to strapped states and locales, so they didn't have to cut vital services and raise taxes. They could repay when the economy picked up and revenues came in. The national jobs program would also include a one-year payroll tax holiday on the first $20,000 of income. <snip>

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-reich/were-in-a-one-and-a-half_b_654960.html

It is time to heed the words of Reich. It may be too late but waiting any longer is going to be a disaster.

[ixion]

1. actually, I think we're on the top of the slope, facing

a very steep, very deep, 'dip'.

Watch that first step...it's a doosey!

[xchrom]

2. Recommend

[NJmaverick]

3. You know that is an incorrect but often self fulfilling statement

the economy is growing, however a concerted effort to shake consumer confidence with false claims of recession or depression could prove to be successful.

[bvar22]

8. If we just clap hard enough, it'll go away.

After all, thats the sensible, pragmatic thing to do!

[NJmaverick]

15. Are you denying the human emotion component of the economy?

Which would be highly illogical

[bvar22]

18. I prefer a reality based approach to solving problems,

Step One: Admit the problem.


...but thanks for the Chuckle.

Jobless Claims Increase
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x4474295

[NJmaverick]

19. If you prefer reality, then you can appreciate that actively and vocally campaigning

against the recovery can affect it in a negative manner. Laughter can't change that fact.

[saracat]

26. So are you saying I should "pretend" to have a job and "pretend" to have money in order for the

economy to "appear" better than it is in order to build consumer confidence?

[laughingliberal]

30. That does seem to be the message, doesn't it?

:rofl:

[bvar22]

32. Mind BOGLING...

Isn't it?
:rofl:

[laughingliberal]

33. ...

:)

[leftstreet]

10. No jobs, stagnant wages, no healthcare - those things 'shake consumer confidence'

[NJmaverick]

16. There are jobs, just not enough of them, wages have been rising but not fast enough

and millions are getting healthcare. However there are quite a few reasons to believe the economy could and would improve

[sendero]

31. Blah blah blah...

... you are so fucking funny. Let me clue you in as to why some of us continue to sound the warning bells.

BELIEVING THE MEDIA CHEERLEADERS COULD BE HAZARDOUS TO YOUR FUTURE.

We are merely providing some reality-based balance to the nonsense idea that there is a recovery underway. There is no such thing. And happy talk will not change that.

We are warning our fellow Dems to be on their guard, the crisis is not over and if you CAN spend money now please do but if you are not financially secure please do not rely on happy talk to guide you.

[paulk]

38. wages are rising?

everything I read says the opposite, both in the near and long term.

[Hannah Bell]

41. inflation-adjusted wages have been *falling*.

[amborin]

4. US manufacturing data is very worrisome.....

[Greyhound]

5. Each quarter about 2 million more of the 'toxic' mortgages resets, adding

the the still growing inventory of surplus houses. And as a result, billions more of 'our' dollars are poured into the black hole of propping up the 'lenders'. Commercial real estate defaults continue to accelerate and are on schedule to really hit in Q4. And the Scheme to pacify the masses with happy talk, can't possibly overcome the fact that not enough jobs are being created to even keep up with population growth, so there is a constant upward pressure on unemployment.

As pessimistic as he has been, Reich has tried to put a brave face on a looming disaster that everyone (that matters) knows is inevitable.

[dtexdem]

6. Oh it's more than that: I've seen many dips on TV bloviating about it.

As well as those who want to end the deficit by giving tax cuts to the rich.

;-)

[nashville_brook]

7. "Washington" isn't alarmed b/c they've written us off. those jobs aren't coming back,

and they're fine with it.

[Subdivisions]

9. Summers was on Daily Rundown this morning. When asked if we were in a double-dip

recession, Summers replied by stating that he has "seen no major economic forecasters claiming that we're in a double-dip recession, no."

Can you tell me what is wrong with that picture?

[laughingliberal]

13. Doesn't read much, I'm assuming. Lol. nt

[Subdivisions]

14. Yes. But my point was, should HE HIMSELF be able to answer the

question without putting the answer off on mysteriously ill-informed economics forcasters?

At least one doomish forcaster I know of is Krugman. Now, I can't testify that Krugman has warned of a "double-dip" recession (DDR). But he has indeed said we are in a "depression", which, just in case Mr. Summers is unaware, is degrees worse than a DDR.

Hey! Maybe that's his spin! They're not predicting DDR because they know we're already in a depression.

[laughingliberal]

20. +1000 nt

[Sebastian Doyle]

11. Reich nails it, as usual.

This administration needs to dump the DLC and embrace the FDR.

[cordelia]

12. K & R

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

17. All that has to happen is for consumers to spend more...oh, wait..the consumers are unemployed.

This isn't going to end well.

[lib2DaBone]

21. We have been worshiping so long at the alter of Reaganomics..

30+ years of failed, corrupt, supply-side, free-trade, job-killing economic policy.

I'm not sure if anyone in Washington is even capable of doing anything different....

[laughingliberal]

25. So long I believe many don't even know that's where their beliefs originated. nt

[saracat]

27. For some history began in 2008. Kinda like AD after BC, you know?

Those who don't learn from history...... Reich knows his history. He lived it.

[GSLevel9]

22. I work for the most stable employer in the world... lol

but away from the Fed, the rest of the country thinks it's all one BIG recession. To have a double dip recession... you actually have to have a recovery.

lol.

[girl gone mad]

34. Welcome to DU.

:hi:

[DCBob]

23. Since when did they change the definition of a recession? I thought there had to be negative GDP??

We have not had negative GDP for over a year..



We were in one before and there may be another recession coming but clearly we are not in one now.

[Spheric]

24. Since they started "making up" the GDP. /nt

[laughingliberal]

28. A careful reading of what Reich said should clear this up for you.

See, a double dip recession is when you start to see a recovery and some stupid action (like cutting spending) or inaction (like failing to adequately prime the pump) causes the economy to 'dip' back into recession. Hence, 'double dip.' Now, Reich is saying this isn't the 'double dip' yet (not officially back in recession) but it is 1.5. He contends the major indicators are such that if we don't do some serious stimulus real soon, we will be back in recession and then it will be the double dip.

Reading is fundamental. :)

[DCBob]

35. Glad to hear we are not "officially back in recession".. because the title seemed to imply we were..

Thanks for "clearing" that up.

[laughingliberal]

39. I found the article clear and the title.

Then again, I've been attuned to the possibility of double dip since they failed to adequately fund the stimulus package back when. So, when I read 1.5 dip, I realized he meant we're on the verge of the 'double dip.'

[DCBob]

42. The title actually makes no sense at all.. What's a 1.5 dip? half a dip?

Literally that would mean we are half way back down to the lowest level we were in the first recession. Which isnt true based on GDP. We not even in negative territory so we aren't in any kind of recession 1.5 or otherwise.

[laughingliberal]

43. I take it to mean we are well on our way to another downturn without real action soon.

We can argue semantics all day long but when Ben Bernanke who has been preaching deficit reduction for a damned year suddenly starts telling Congress not to cut spending right now, there is major concern going on.

[Blue_In_AK]

29. K&R

[Motown_Johnny]

36. Nope, just because the recovery has slowed does not mean the economic growth has reversed

You need 2 quarters in a row where the economy shrinks to constitute a recession. That isn't going to happen.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession
^snip^
In a 1975 New York Times article, economic statistician Julius Shiskin suggested several rules of thumb for defining a recession, one of which was "two down quarters of GDP".


First and second quarters tend to do worse than third and forth quarters due to consumer spending. Third quarter contains summer vacations and back to school spending. Forth quarter has Christmas.


The truth is that first and second quarters of 2010 were better than the third and forth quarters of 2009 and that is a good sign.



The sky isn't falling.

[Bryn]

37. K&R

Darn it! Too late for me to rec'd so I have to rec'd it in my post. :hi:

[TexasObserver]

40. No, we aren't. That's more propaganda from the right.

Reality: Market bottomed in March 2009, barely above 6500. It's almost 4000 points higher today as I type this. The peak since Obama took office was a few months back, and was around 11000.

We are 60% above the bottom DOW since Obama took office and 95% of the top DOW since Obama took office. It's hardly a double dip or one and half dip recession. The recovery has been essentially flat for over six months, with minor excursions into the bottom and top ranges. Why? Because the president started listening to those who want to sabotage the recovery - those who suddenly are concerned about the deficit, after having ignored it throughout the Bush administration.

We need to add more stimulus and more spending, not less.

[laughingliberal]

44. Robert Reich from the right...

:rofl:

Reich's point was exactly what you said-we need more stimulus and job creation. Did you read the article? FFS, Bernanke is even telling Congress not to cut spending right now. There is a real threat of a 2nd dip if we don't act. This is why the RW deficit hawks are trying to cut spending now-to tank the economy and better their chances in November.