Why the Probability that You Are Living in a Matrix is Quite High

[IChing]

The Matrix got many otherwise not-so-philosophical minds ruminating on the nature of reality. But the scenario depicted in the movie is ridiculous: human brains being kept in tanks by intelligent machines just to produce power.

There is, however, a related scenario that is more plausible and a serious line of reasoning that leads from the possibility of this scenario to a striking conclusion about the world we live in. I call this the simulation argument. Perhaps its most startling lesson is that there is a significant probability that you are living in computer simulation. I mean this literally: if the simulation hypothesis is true, you exist in a virtual reality simulated in a computer built by some advanced civilisation. Your brain, too, is merely a part of that simulation. What grounds could we have for taking this hypothesis seriously? Before getting to the gist of the simulation argument, let us consider some of its preliminaries. One of these is the assumption of “substrate independence”. This is the idea that conscious minds could in principle be implemented not only on carbon-based biological neurons (such as those inside your head) but also on some other computational substrate such as silicon-based processors.
>>>>>snip.....

Now we get to the core of the simulation argument. This does not purport to demonstrate that you are in a simulation. Instead, it shows that we should accept as true at least one of the following three propositions:

(1) The chances that a species at our current level of development can avoid going extinct before becoming technologically mature is negligibly small

(2) Almost no technologically mature civilisations are interested in running computer simulations of minds like ours

(3) You are almost certainly in a simulation.


LinK http://www.simulation-argument.com/matrix.html


Nick Bostrom is a British Academy postdoctoral fellow in the philosophy faculty at Oxford University. His simulation argument is published in The Philosophical Quarterly. A preprint of the original paper is available at www.simulation-argument.com.
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OK DAMNIT I WANT THAT STEAK TO TASTE GOOD
SO........................GIVE ME THE PILL WHERE WE DON'T HAVE TO THINK.

[Forkboy]

1. It's more likely we're living in the Dukes of Hazzard.

Fascinating piece though..thanks for sharing.

[Big Pappa]

2. And Bush is Roscoe!

n/t.

[IChing]

5. I liked the movie alot, my son turned me on to it

when it came out.

The matrix that some Americans are still living in
feeds their brain but when they wake up
they realized that they are just
being fed the steak that comes from
a mad cow disease.

Interesting link anyway that I gave.

[Selatius]

3. I accept Proposition One as true

There's no telling how many civilizations have been wiped out in war and conquest.

There's no telling how many civilizations, after having the discovered the power to destroy entire worlds, destroyed themselves or destroyed others or even both.

[IChing]

6. I thought that this essay opened up

dissuasion with some and discussion with others.

The manipulation of the masses is so apparent
with a fascist corporate controlled media.

That makes them not examine their lives or the truth.

[Forkboy]

7. That's a part of the formula in Drake's Equation.

The Drake Equation was developed by Frank Drake in 1961 as a way to focus on the factors which determine how many intelligent, communicating civilizations there are in our galaxy. The Drake Equation is:
N = N* fp ne fl fi fc fL

The equation can really be looked at as a number of questions:

N* represents the number of stars in the Milky Way Galaxy

Question: How many stars are in the Milky Way Galaxy?
Answer: Current estimates are 100 billion.

fp is the fraction of stars that have planets around them

Question: What percentage of stars have planetary systems?
Answer: Current estimates range from 20% to 50%.

ne is the number of planets per star that are capable of sustaining life

Question: For each star that does have a planetary system, how many planets are capable of sustaining life?
Answer: Current estimates range from 1 to 5.

fl is the fraction of planets in ne where life evolves

Question: On what percentage of the planets that are capable of sustaining life does life actually evolve?
Answer: Current estimates range from 100% (where life can evolve it will) down to close to 0%.

fi is the fraction of fl where intelligent life evolves

Question: On the planets where life does evolve, what percentage evolves intelligent life?
Answer: Estimates range from 100% (intelligence is such a survival advantage that it will certainly evolve) down to near 0%.

fc is the fraction of fi that communicate

Question: What percentage of intelligent races have the means and the desire to communicate?
Answer: 10% to 20%

fL is fraction of the planet's life during which the communicating civilizations live

Question: For each civilization that does communicate, for what fraction of the planet's life does the civilization survive?
Answer: This is the toughest of the questions. If we take Earth as an example, the expected lifetime of our Sun and the Earth is roughly 10 billion years. So far we've been communicating with radio waves for less than 100 years. How long will our civilization survive? Will we destroy ourselves in a few years like some predict or will we overcome our problems and survive for millennia? If we were destroyed tomorrow the answer to this question would be 1/100,000,000th. If we survive for 10,000 years the answer will be 1/1,000,000th.

When all of these variables are multiplied together when come up with:

N, the number of communicating civilizations in the galaxy.

[IChing]

8. OK, lets take that a step further

Doris Lessing.......the Nobel prize winning author
and her writings outside of her normal feminist philosophy

When she did a Sci-Fi trilogy.

Still, I think that the awakening of the populace will
be disappointing or painful.

Why isn't an academy award winning film
on global warming on ABC, NBC.......etc.

it is free to show..........

Ah........the other Matrix......never-mind.

[ashling]

4. This is only a test life

if this were a real life,
you would have been given further instructions.

[TheMadMonk]

9. We pondered this question many years ago in college.

The consensus was that yes we are in a simulation. A bloody bad one written in interpreted COBOL running on a Vic-20.

[dysfunctional press]

10. i remember my first joint....

:eyes:

[NoPasaran]

11. Help! Help! I'm trapped in a Keanu Reeves vehicle!

:scared:

[mainegreen]

12. The problem with arguments like these is that they always are based on unverifiable assumptions.

Interesting thought experiments, but in the end you walk away from them with your thinking skills sharpened, but no answers.