ultimately, whether gay marriage stays legal will be up to Justice Kennedy

[scheming daemons]

I'm confident that Sotomayor, Kagan, Breyer, and Ginsberg will uphold yesterday's decision.

I'm also confident that Thomas, Scalia, Roberts, and Alito will vote to overturn.

What will Justice Kennedy do?

Are we confident that this Reagan appointee will vote to uphold the ruling?

The fate of gay marriage rests, unfortunately, with this one man.

[Dappleganger]

1. Rachel Maddow seems to think

that the judge purposefully wrote his opinion just for Kennedy.

[WillParkinson]

3. I hope Ms. Maddow is correct...

And I hope that Justice is not blind.

[joeybee12]

15. I am disgusted by most of kennedy's decisions, but I willa dmit he's not a raging homophobe

like the other 4...there is hope.

[saltpoint]

2. This ought to be a 9 - 0 slam dunk but of course

your analysis is much closer to the reality.

I hope Kennedy listens to his better angels.

Agree with you completely on Sotomayor and Kagan.

For just such circumstances, which candidate we vote for for president matters. Not just for SCOTUS but for any level judicial appointment.

[CTyankee]

5. Hey, Saltpoint! Question for you...

what do you think will be the basis for the conservative Court members to oppose this judge's opinion?

I'm trying to figure out how they're going to justify their opposition, given the breadth of this opinion...

[saltpoint]

6. Hey there, CTyankee. Good morning -- and it's an

even better one after Judge Walker's decision yesterday.

Good question. The sure-fire 'NO' votes on the SCOTUS will be hard-pressed to find legal benefit to arguing against equal protection under the law, but of course it's not likely to stop them from using old-time favorite spices of posturing and bigotry to fix the soup.

Critical mass is just about there on the inherent right of humans to marry whom they wish, no matter how loud the fundies and nutbags squawk.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

4. It also rests in this man, but not for the reasons most people seem to think:

http://www.smh.com.au/ffximage/2007/11/12/obama_wideweb__470x418,0.jpg

Why? Because we have 3 Supreme Court Justices over 74 years old and this case probably won't reach SCOTUS for another 2-3 years.

[zipplewrath]

7. So which do you expect to be gone?

Thomas, Alito, Scalia, or Roberts? Because if it isn't one of them, it's back to Kennedy, unless you think HE'LL leave.

[saltpoint]

12. As for Alito, Scalia, and Roberts, I'd be happy to

drive every one of their sorry asses to the bus station and buy them a one-way ticket out of town.

I wouldn't miss 'em one little bit.

[backscatter712]

13. Scalia and Kennedy are both 74.

Scalia will most likely cling to his seat in SCOTUS as long as possible, but Kennedy could conceivably retire.

[zipplewrath]

14. So it's still up to Kennedy

I'm afraid it's back to the original point. Kennedy is effectively the person who will decide. It will be interesting to see how Obama's picks chose to vote.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

18. Scalia's 74 and not really, uhm, "fit"

Thomas ain't young either. Either way, it's not back to Kennedy even if it ain't one of them, because if Obama's not in office, it'll be a vote on the wrong side.

[racaulk]

8. What Kennedy will do I cannot say, but Walker did seem to write his ruling to appeal to him.

We'll see what happens, and I'm hoping for the best.

But until this case's ultimate appeal reaches the SCOTUS, I sure wouldn't mind Scalia or Thomas stepping down in the meantime. :hi:


On edit, I originally stated that Walker is a Reagan appointee. He was nominated to the bench by President G. H. Walker Bush. Wow, how did I mess THAT up? My apologies.

[LynneSin]

10. And the lawyer that helped overturn this was the lawyer who supported Bush...

in Bush v. Gore.

[LynneSin]

9. Kennedy has been the swing vote on choice - usually on our team

If he sees gay marriages in the same light as choice - a private issue that the government should not be regulating, then we're safe.

But then again he did vote for Bush. Ironically Ted Olson, the lawyer on the rights of gays, argued that case too and won (he was Bush's lawyer)

:cry:

[RainDog]

11. The judge quoted Kennedy extensively

I doubt Kennedy will rule against his own writings on the subject.

[backscatter712]

16. Kennedy also ruled the right way on Romer v. Evans...

which was the SCOTUS case that overturned Colorado's Amendment 2 because it was discriminatory against the GLBT community.

I'd say the chances that Kennedy will uphold Walker's ruling are fairly high.

[ThomWV]

17. Kennedy is not a right-wing demon. I trust him to make the right decision

in favor of the rights of citizens, all citizens.

[Sapphocrat]

19. Don't be so sure you know what Scalia will do.

Read re his dissent in Lawrence:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x8885679