The Power of Zero - By Valerie Plame Wilson

[bananas]

http://www.globalzero.org/en/power-zero-1

The Power of Zero

Monday, August 2, 2010

By Valerie Plame Wilson - Friday, July 30, 2010

The smoke was still drifting off the World Trade Center when the CIA discovered that Osama bin Laden had secretly met just a few days before the attack with a top Pakistani nuclear scientist, seeking help in building a nuclear bomb. Immediately, nuclear terrorism jumped to the top of the list of urgent threats to the civilized world. My clandestine work as a CIA operations officer became laser-focused on counterproliferation as we mobilized to prevent a nuclear 9/11. We knew that the horror of a nuclear bomb detonated in a major city would dwarf any catastrophe previously suffered by our country—the death toll would be in the hundreds of thousands and the economic and social devastation sudden and catastrophic.

Nine years later, who is winning this contest of wills between the civilized world and terrorist groups trying to buy, build, or steal a nuclear bomb? I would like to believe the bad guys are losing, but, in fact, time favors them as long as nuclear-bomb-grade materials and weapons exist in the world. A valiant team effort by the CIA and our many partners around the globe has prevented an attack thus far. But my experience as part of that effort tells me that the only way to end this danger is to lock down all nuclear materials and eliminate nuclear weapons in all countries.

I am now dedicated to achieving this urgent goal as a leader of the Global Zero movement to rid the world of nuclear weapons. To help deliver a wake-up call to the public and policymakers, I recently participated in a chilling documentary that’s in theaters now, Countdown to Zero, produced by Lawrence Bender and Participant Media—the team that made An Inconvenient Truth. This extraordinary film explains why living in a world with nuclear weapons and materials is simply not a viable option. Our only hope of survival is to drain the swamp as soon as we possibly can. The alternative is for nuclear weapons to spread around the world and, sooner or later, for terrorists to incinerate the heart of a major city.

<snip>

Countdown to Zero looks at other nuclear threats in addition to terrorism, and there are many. The spread of the bomb to more nations is especially worrisome. If Iran acquires a nuclear-weapons capability, its rivals in the region will likely follow suit in short order, and the chances of nuclear catastrophe resulting from an accident, miscalculation, or madness will rise exponentially. As the movie shows, even the well-disciplined and professional U.S. military has made very serious mistakes with nuclear weapons. The nuclear superpowers—who remain on launch-ready alert to this day—have come close to accidental nuclear war on numerous occasions. U.S. and Soviet bombers and submarines with nuclear weapons on board have crashed or sunk.

After spending years in the nuclear underworld, working to block the proliferation of nuclear weapons and material to other nations or to terrorist groups, I believe we are losing ground and that bold action is needed. The only way to avert a disaster is to put all nuclear-bomb-grade materials and nuclear weapons in all countries under ironclad control as soon as possible (as President Obama advocated during his Nuclear Security Summit earlier this year), and then to eliminate the stockpiles completely. This cannot be done overnight or unilaterally. It will require years of hard work. The United States and Russia—which together possess 95 percent of the world’s nuclear weapons—must reduce their Cold War stockpiles. Then, along with other major powers, including China, they must lead an international effort to reduce arsenals worldwide and make the elimination of nuclear weapons a global imperative, allowing no exceptions, whether Iran or Israel.

<snip>

[Rosa Luxemburg]

1. it can only take one

not just the big bombs but the minis. I hope that our intelligence is still working well to sniff them out.

[Jim__]

2. The only thing I disagree with in her article is that this is not a fight between "good guys" ...

and "bad guys". It's man against man. Whoever goes first we all lose.

I absolutely agree that we have to eliminate all nuclear weapons.

[mmonk]

3. Yes, I know and have heard her speak of this movie and effort.

Noble effort but always seems to get sidetracked when politicians seek to restart proliferation and scrap arms treaties.

[leveymg]

4. Note that the only "rogue" she mentions is Iran - why isn't Israel also identified as a source of

regional competition for nuclear weapons and other forms of military escalation and tension?

By the way, as Ms. Plame fully understands, other regional players also effectively have a nuclear capability in the form of the Pakistani program they funded. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf emirates are already proxy nuclear powers, and have no reason to develop their own, even when Iran eventually builds its own bomb.

The catastrophic destabilization of the strategic balance of power in that region she assumes is not inherent or inevitable.

In a world where the US and Russia will continue to hold an overwhelming percentage of all nuclear stockpiles (neither will completely disarm, ever), the emergence of one or two other nuclear powers does not necessarily change anyone's calculus or increase the chances of terrorist (non-state actors) use of nuclear weapons.

[FreepFryer]

5. The goal isn't to achieve zero nukes worldwide (that's impossible)...

...it's to create an atmosphere conducive to reduction of the # and emphasis placed on nuclear weapons in the arsenals of the world's great powers. You could never conclusively prove that a nuclear nation wasn't 'holding back' a few weapons for a rainy day.

The real practical goal of the Global Zero movement (for all countries, not just the U.S.) is to reduce the threat of nuclear proliferation (of weapons or materials) to the minimum by creating an environment that is decidedly anti-proliferation while still maintaining a reasonable national defense/deterrence capability against nations who may be hiding weapons themselves.

Even the 'Gang of Four', who wrote the original call for Global Zero, understand that it's about a movement towards zero, not the achievement of literal zero.

Very glad to see Valerie Plame continuing to make a contribution to Nuclear Non-proliferation. Her service to the nation and the world was interrupted by Rove/Novakula to our great detriment.

[closeupready]

6. Fully 100% support this!

K&R