Atlantic Hotter Than Before Katrina Makes Gray Boost Hurricane Forecasts

[marmar]

Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- William Gray, who pioneered seasonal hurricane forecasting at Colorado State University 26 years ago, rings a bell each Aug. 20 and tells colleagues, “I have been appointed by Chicken Little to inform you that the heart of the hurricane season has begun.”

This year, Gray and meteorologists at the U.S. National Hurricane Center say there’s more reason for concern that the sky will fall than any time since 2005, when Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans. At least 15 more “named” storms with winds of 39 miles per hour or more will develop before the 2010 season ends, Colorado State researchers predict.

With two months of the hurricane season gone, the statistics of the past 15 years show now is the time when it worsens. Forecasters blame rising temperatures in the Atlantic that feed storm development, and diminishing wind shear and dust from the Sahara, obstacles to storm formation.

“This is going to leave the doors wide open for activity coming off Africa to spin up into cyclones,” said Jim Rouiller, a senior energy meteorologist at Planalytics Inc. in Berwyn, Pennsylvania. “The storms we will be talking about in the next few weeks will be the real deal. These will be big- sized hurricanes.”

The Statistics

Three storms have formed so far this season, a start that appears slow but is ahead of the statistical average. The second named storm, which doesn’t normally occur until Aug. 1, came in July, and the first hurricane, statistically due on or after Aug. 10, appeared in June. If all the storms forecast by Colorado State materialize, 2010 will be tied with 1969, the fifth-busiest season on record. .........(more)

The complete piece is at: http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aMz0DGZDKS40&pos=9

[Edweird]

1. We'll see. Nothing has been developing. This year looks like a dud so far.