94L forecast to strengthen - BP shuts down operations in the Gulf

[malaise]

Forecast for 94L
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the Gulf of Mexico this week. The storm's main problem will be dry air, and I don't expect 94L to undergo rapid development. Most of the models bring 94L ashore over Louisiana by Thursday, though the GFDL model predicts 94L could stall off the coast and not make landfall until Friday. If 94L does make landfall Thursday, it is unlikely to be a hurricane, due to all the dry air aloft in the Gulf. However, the GFDL model is predicting that the 1-day delay in landfall to Friday will allow 94L enough time to grow fully tropical and intensify into a Category 1 hurricane. I think this solution is unlikely. Storms that get their start underneath a cold, dry, upper-level low very rarely attain hurricane strength in three days. A 40 - 50 mph tropical or subtropical storm at landfall Thursday or Friday is a much more reasonable forecast.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

[dipsydoodle]

1. Unfortunate timing

as it may affect drilling the relief shafts/wells whatever ready for the bottom kill.

[jdlh8894]

2. Let's all get SCARED!

From the OP "Storms that get their start underneath a cold, dry, upper-level low very rarely attain hurricane strength in three days. A 40 - 50 mph tropical or subtropical storm at landfall Thursday or Friday is a much more reasonable forecast."

People,get a grip! Sure, Katrina was bad. However,every little Storm,TD,and or waterspout does not a disaster make!

On edit- Where does it say in the OP that BP has shut down.

[Wednesdays]

3. Get a grip? Where is anyone saying to get scared?

:shrug:

The OP seems to agree with you--that at worst it will be a category 1 hurricane, and even that is unlikely.

[Statistical]

5. who said anything about scared except you.

[Scurrilous]

4. Thanks.

:thumbsup: