by Peter Stojan
Now it may be hard to swallow for some that market manipulations go on, but they do at all levels. Penny stock promoters cook up their schemes, and power players have their schemes. In traders jargon, it’s called painting the tape. Indeed, the Washington Post has revealed that the government has formed something that is casually known as the Plunge Protection Team. PPT is supposed to jump in and buy stocks when things are unruly. Ronald Reagan formed the PPT when he signed Executive Order 12631. It’s just another way of painting the tape (Using your tax money, or newly printed Federal Reserve dollars, of course). Goldman is a member of the secretive PPT.
But some just don't believe these kinds of manipulations go on. I have had some email discussions in recent days with some pretty sophisticated economists who don’t believe Goldman has manipulated the gasoline market. Their argument goes: "I will continue to be an economist and look at the supply and demand issues."
My reply has been, Goldman Sachs understands supply and demand – and they also understand trading. When you sell-off $6 billion in gasoline futures contracts, you are going to have an impact – as the New York Times story correctly pointed out. That is an awful lot of supply. Further, this type of aggressive selling will result in selling by others who will receive margin calls they can’t meet. And by trend followers, who will suddenly dump gasoline and other commodities. This is, indeed, exactly what is happening. Goldman Sachs didn’t get to be Goldman by not understanding this stuff. Supply and demand can explain this manipulation completely.
They ask, "Why would Goldman Sachs trade this way and lose money?" The answer here is that Goldman doesn’t lose money. This is a managed commodity index. Goldman manages the index, but the actual money put up comes from institutions, hedge funds and other unlucky saps that trusted Goldman to manage the commodity index as a hedge against inflation – not to bail out of $6 billion in contracts over a few weeks. The result: Unlucky saps – Major losses. Goldman – Zero losses and their man running the Treasury. Which side of this trade would you want to be on?>>>>>snip
Peter Stojan has traded commodities full time for over twenty years.
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Is Goldman Sachs manipulating the gasoline price?
There has been some speculation that the Saudis have been driving down the price of oil to help Republicans in the upcoming elections. I personally haven't seen any evidence that the Saudis are doing this, but it sure looks as though Goldman Sachs is doing some strange trading in the gasoline futures market. Can the Saudis be far behind?
Check out this timeline:
President George W. Bush nominated Henry M. Paulson, Jr. to be the 74th Secretary of the Treasury on June 19, 2006. The United States Senate unanimously confirmed Paulson to the position on June 28, 2006 and he was sworn into office on July 10, 2006.
Before coming to Treasury, Paulson was Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Goldman Sachs.
So what does Goldman do just weeks after Paulson is sworn in as Treasury Secretary?
It announces a subtle move that drives down gasoline prices, short-term.
Nice move, coming just months before the election.
This weekend (They always hide the good stuff in the low circulation Saturday edition.), Heather Timmons at the New York Times spilled the beans on the maneuver:
Politics and worries about oil supplies may have caused gasoline prices to go up at the pump earlier this year, but one big investment bank quietly helped their rapid drop in recent weeks, according to some economists, traders and analysts.
Goldman Sachs, which runs the largest commodity index, the G.S.C.I., said in early August that it was reducing the index’s weighting in gasoline futures significantly. The announcement did not make big headlines, but it has reverberated through the markets in the weeks since and some other investors who had been betting that gasoline would rise followed suit on their weightings.
“They started unwinding their positions, and those other longs also rushed to the door at the same time,” said Lawrence J. Goldstein, president of the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation.
The August announcement by Goldman Sachs caught some traders by surprise.The firm said in early June that it planned to roll its positions in the harbor contract into another futures contract, the reformulated gasoline blendstock, which is replacing the harbor contract at the end of the year because of changes to laws about gasoline additives.>>>>snip
http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.htm... http://www.kellerkomments.com/2006/10/gaso...