By James Glanz Published: May 16, 2007
Newly declassified U.S. data show that as additional American troops began streaming into Iraq in March and April, the number of attacks on civilians and security forces there stayed relatively steady or at most declined slightly, in the clearest indication yet that the troop increase could take months to have a widespread effect on security.
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The attack data were compiled by the Pentagon but were made public in a report released Tuesday by the Government Accountability Office.
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But the draft report did not contain the attack statistics.<…>
Salih also said that insurgents had to some extent fled Baghdad, where the increase is concentrated, to outlying areas like the northern cities of Mosul and Kirkuk, the Kurdish north and the ethnically mixed province of Diyala, north and west of Baghdad, where major attacks have taken place in recent weeks.
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Over all, the attack statistics, which the accountability office has been compiling since the early days of the conflict, paint a sobering picture of where Iraq is headed. The number of daily attacks remained low through 2003 and the early months of 2004, but then began a relentless climb even as the United States promoted what it saw as important political milestones in Iraq.
Those milestones included the transfer of the country to a sovereign Iraqi government, several elections and eventually the creation and ratification of the Iraqi Constitution. Despite those developments, the statistics show, the number of attacks averaged 71 a day in January 2006, and rose to a record high of 176 a day in October 2006.
By February, the number had eased to 164 a day. The troop increase, which is not expected to be fully in place until this summer, began in earnest that month, with several U.S.-led sweeps through Baghdad and plans for permanent new outposts in restive neighborhoods put into effect.
As U.S. troops continued to arrive, the statistics show, the early effect on countrywide attacks was at best marginal, although there does appear to have been a slight decrease. The daily attack figures for March and April, released Tuesday for the first time, were 157 and 149, respectively.
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