So, what happened to the economic recovery we were supposed to get?

[Subdivisions]

All the numbers for the past couple of weeks have been dismal. I thought the economy was supposed to be in recovery.

What happened?

[Turbineguy]

1. Months of conservative propaganda

promoting depression (or the more palatable "double dip") is having effect.

[Xenotime]

3. Agreed. The RW is also having a negative pull on the media.

[Hannah Bell]

34. publicity drives economic statistics? who knew?

so it's bad press that dropped home sales 27%?

bad press that made more people apply for unemployment?

amazing.

[scarletwoman]

43. See, we just need to clap harder. Close our eyes real tight and clap real hard.

And BELIEVE.

[Turbineguy]

51. There's a reason economics got named

the dismal science. Human behavior is influenced by propaganda. Human behavior drives the economy. The statistics don't happen by themselves. Why buy a house now if you think you can buy it much cheaper in a few months?

[scarletwoman]

53. Why buy a house if you know you can't afford it?

There is a real world out there operating outside of the fog of propaganda. There are plenty of people reacting to the empirical circumstances of their lives in rational ways.

[Hannah Bell]

65. um, if people hadn't lost a lot of their housing equity, & weren't unemployed, & hadn't taken wage

cuts -- they'd be less susceptible to propaganda.

these are real phenomena.

[Autumn]

60. Little bit of that faith and trust?

Oh and pixie dust. Must not forget that.

[Xenotime]

2. We are heading in the right direction..just not as fast as people want.

It could have been much much worse. Imagine no car companies and no way to buy homes. That's what was prevented but enacting the stimulus.

We should be grateful for what has been given to us.. To ask for more is foolish.

[Subdivisions]

9. Well....

Rise in jobless claims darkens the economic landscape
http://www.kansascity.com/2010/08/19/2162037/rise-in-jobless-claims-darkens.html#ixzz0xdD6r2xV

U.S. Existing Home Sales Plunge by Record - Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-24/sales-of-u-s-existing-homes-drop-more-than-estimated-to-3-83-million-rate.html

Sales of new homes fall 12.4% in July‎
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2010/08/sales-.html

[zipplewrath]

22. Were the banks foolish?

They got 100% on the dollar for their toxic assets.

It could have been worse, it could have been so much better. Which are we suppose to expect, the least they can do or all that they should do?

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

41. Depends where you place the time-line

We are actually going in the wrong direction unless you chose December 2008 as your starting point and draw a straight line to today.

The economy is much weaker than it was 6 months ago by any measure.

[WilliamPitt]

4. You really don't know?

Read the papers.

[Subdivisions]

13. Yea, I'll do that right away, Pitt. ...

:eyes:

[WilliamPitt]

25. Ask a stupid question

Get a stupid answer.

[Subdivisions]

26. To respond to you like I'd like to would result in me being TSed. And you ain't worth it. But,

since you're so smart, what with all your reading of papers, please slowly answer the stupid question in my OP, if you can.

What happened?


PS: The next time you run across the word "rhetorical" while reading The Globe, get a dictionary and look it up. And go ahead and look up "sarcasm" while you're at it.

[emilyg]

28. There are no stupid questions - just

stupid answers.

[scarletwoman]

29. It wasn't a stupid question. It's a question that needs to be asked, because the REAL answers

are important.

The OP's question needs to asked by everyone, because we desperately need to examine all the policies that went into creating this recession in the first place.

[Javaman]

63. I expect more of you.

trying for second ban?

[Jax]

66. You are all about stupid posts

and violence.

[Winterblues]

5. Republicans happened..

You want to really stall an economy elect more Republicans..

[davekriss]

6. As per Krugman, stimulus was too small

Krugman argued when the stimulus program was being debated that it was way too small to fill the gap created by collapsed demand. His fear is it was too small, and the will for a second stimulus would not be there when the financial and political class realized that. Krugman was right.

[northernlights]

35. +1,000,000,000

1. The stimulus should have been aimed solely at *job creation*. You cannot "cut taxes" your way to prosperity. The wealthy aren't can only hire so many maids, chefs, gardners, chauffers, and lackeys. Everything after that goes into gambling in the wall street casino.

2. There should have been a follow-up stimulus, bigger and directed at the programs in the first stimulus that *worked*

3. The stimulus should have been directly aimed at *job creation* in a *massive* WPA-type program directed at bringing our crumbling infrastructure into the 21st century, alternative energy and energy conservation

4. There should not have been a $14T -- or any -- bankster bailout. The "too big to fail" banksters should have been taken over by the government, broken into smaller pieces and sold back into private business.

5. None of the housing programs was effective. The "rebate" stole demand from the future. The re-financing to "affordable" was pointless in a crumbling jobs market.

This administration should have seen much, much sooner that things were far worse than they believed. They should have taken dramatic action back when unemployment went to 10% instead of the 8.5% peak they had foolishly anticipated and predicted.

Now it is too late.

[scarletwoman]

36. Excellent post! I'd love to see it as an OP -- titled "This is why there's no real recovery." nt

[Greyhound]

38. Nice summation.

Of course, had 'our' leadership pushed for any of this, they would have hurt themselves and their employers, so that was "off the table", too.

It seems unlikely that another opportunity like that will come again in our lifetimes.

[newspeak]

39. Right on!!!!

Too bad he didn't heed the advise of other economists--too me, Summers is just plain sucky!!!

[Steely_Dan]

59. WOW....Exactly Right

I couldn't have written any better. Thanks...nice job.

-P

[kentuck]

57. The stimulus has run out of steam.

Just imagine how bad it would have been without it.

[NickB79]

58. We don't have to imagine how bad it could have been. We're gonna see it in the next 6-12 mo.

The stimulus only succeeded in delaying the pain, not preventing it.

[kentuck]

62. I think you may be right..

The stimulus was like a shot of morphine. It killed the pain momentarily but the cancer is still there.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

7. One factor is Obama admin accepting invalid RW theories about the economy

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/24/2-53/

[grantcart]

8. World wide economic declines of record post war proportions.

Several countries economic systems have collapsed completely, see Finland and Greece for an example.

This has caused the same kind of liquidity freeze in capital loans that the US experienced in 08-09.

Huge decline in world wide consumer spending has affecting the higher end US exports.


The real question is "Given the worldwide economic situation how is the US faring versus the rest of the world?"


The answer is under Bush the US suffered a much greater hit than other countries and under Obama the US has shown a stronger rebound than other countries.

[Subdivisions]

10. Very good post, gc. Thanks. n/t

[jtuck004]

12. Do you have the same charts for China, Russia, India and Brazil?

[grantcart]

18. Here is the link to the article, but no.

http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3421



It is unlikely that any country will show a greater decline and a better recovery from that decline but even if there are a few countries that do the larger point remains, this is part of a much larger global recession, which answers the OP.

[jtuck004]

27. What improvement we have had is largely based on

the diminutive stimulus, and that being gone, we are on a clear downtrend - especially noteworthy since that article was written in Mar of 2010. What people don't see is the lack of recovery we had in other recessions, and the depths to which this recession (depression for some) is sinking to. With the size of our country and capitalization we should be at 4-5 times greater employment and recovery than we are.

From the article

"But before indulging in self-congratulation, policymakers should note that the level of industrial production is still 6% below its previous peak (figure 1). (At the trough it was 13% below its previous peak.) It follows that considerable excess capacity remains in a number of important economies. Exiting now from policies of stimulus in those countries would therefore be premature."

Yet that is exactly what we did.

China has now equaled us in manufacturing output, in an economy half our size, and they will likely outperform us next year. We are still buying more from them than they are from us, a trend that shows no signs of change.

Our growth is likely to be reported at near 1% shortly, unemployment is quite likely to rise into the double digits around the end of this year. With 30 million people unemployed and underemployed, unless we can create 291,000 jobs a month starting this month, and each month for the next 10 years, (20 million net new jobs plus the 125,000 we need just to break even each month) we will have double digit or near that till at least 2020. And if those don't pay what they used to, expect big drops in public employment such as teachers, fire, police, as well as many pubic and private pensions failing to meet their obligations.

Some people have worked the last job they will ever have.

Some recovery. People need to pull their heads out of the sand.

[closeupready]

30. Finland is doing very well. I think you may have meant a different country.

no?

[newspeak]

40. I think that countries who have stronger finance regulations

aren't in the same bind as "free for all" US predatory capitalism.

[newspeak]

42. I think he meant Iceland

didn't some of those countries in trouble buy into our mortgage BS?

[closeupready]

45. I think you're correct.

they did a severe economic nosedive last year.

[Bonhomme Richard]

11. Lying, greedy son's of bitches happened. n/t

[BurtWorm]

14. Democowards in Congress (and elsewhere) were too chicken to do what was necessary to fix the problem

which was to fill working people's pockets with money needed to pump it back into the economy. They did everything half-assedly. We're living in an age of moral midgets.

[asdjrocky]

15. The banks got it.

Then the insurance companies. Now the oil and energy companies will get their turn.

Sit down, shut up and wait, maybe you'll get an exciting job in fast food.

[Subdivisions]

16. Hey, Rock. Hope all is going well my friend...

:hi:

Thanks for commenting. :)

[asdjrocky]

23. Getting better, at least on a personal level, everyday!

Good to see you :hi:!

[scarletwoman]

20. Yup. nt

[Jax]

67. Yep, Rocky gets it.

Good luck to you class act!

[scarletwoman]

17. The growth of the parasitical Financial Sector happened, and nothing was done to check that growth.

As long as the parasites continue to fatten themselves on the cumulative wealth of the planet, the rest of us will continue to be drained of life and substance.

No recovery is possible because the fundamental system of parasitical capitalism hasn't been corrected in any meaningful way -- it hasn't been corrected at ALL.

sw

[Turbineguy]

56. You are correct about that

And Wall Street would like to thank all those who blame the Pentagon for draining the economy.

[KansDem]

19. "As you know, you go through life with the economic recovery you have...

...not the economic recovery you might want or wish to have at a later time."

Rumsfeld paraphrased (somewhat)...

But of course, he also said this about the WMDs:
"We know where they are. They're in the area around Tikrit and Baghdad and east, west, south and north somewhat."
:crazy:

[notesdev]

21. You got lied to

Aren't you used to it yet?

[mike r]

24. The banksters are recovering very well

very, very well.

[femrap]

31. .

:nuke:

[cherokeeprogressive]

32. Do you feel that warm sensation running down your pant leg? It's rain.

Honest, it's not piss, it's rain. Just ask the right DU'er and you'll understand. Remember, no one is pissing on your leg; it's merely raining.

Recovery... makes me laugh.

[Autumn]

61. Piss is warm, rain is cool

that's how I tell the difference.

[NNN0LHI]

33. Unemployment rate in Japan is 5.3% and S. Korea it is 4.1% and my neighbors are buying imported cars

Think that might have something to do with it?

Don

[newspeak]

44. well, I remember Japan when they were in a deep recession

and the companies attempted to keep as many employees employed as possible, even if that employee had to just sweep the floors. Apparently, at the time, they cared more about their people and working with the government to come out of the recession instead of making it worse.

[Desertrose]

37. It's still trickling....just not in OUR direction evidently.

I am sure there are certain ones that the trickle of "recovery" is a veritable raging river in flood stage....

[potassiumnitrate]

46. Nothing except your uninformed perception

The economy IS recovering. Right now, as I type this. It has been recovering for the past year and a half now. It will continue to recover for the next 5 to 10 years. The economy is not something that changes day by day. It's on a COMPLETELY different time scale than everybody else who expect INSTANT RESULTS.

It's been not even 2 years into Obama's presidency. Can you people give the man some fucking TIME, or do you really expect over 30 years of Republican bullshit to be undone in a matter of weeks?

[TheKentuckian]

47. Yeah, the free trade, supply side economic ideology is working.

Just be patient as you move from, house, to apartment, to room, to car, to tent to underpass.

Give it a decade or two and you'll be able to rent a room again.

I don't know why people are bitching in a few years you might be able to get Medicaid to take care of that pneumonia you got from freezing in your tent.

[taught_me_patience]

48. It's hard to undo 30 years of middle class destruction

in a year and a half. We are in for a long slow slog... ala Japan.

[scarletwoman]

49. It's especially hard to undo 30 years of middle class destruction when no-one

is actually doing anything that would undo it.

[opihimoimoi]

50. The Party of NO got in the way...never ever vote for them GOPers

[Barack2theFuture]

52. nowhere near enough stimulus

too much pandering to the rightwingnuts

reaganista supply-siders in control of treasury and economic policy

no guts to rein in out-of-control capitalists


We B FUKD

[pitohui]

54. i don't know where you live where the economy was supposed to be in recovery

and i'm sorry that 8 years of bush weren't wiped out by 8 minutes of obama

[JoePhilly]

55. Vote GOP ... that will fix it.

:sarcasm:

[ipaint]

64. Pissing on every single worker by creating an unnecessary deficet (cut entitlements)

commission populated by the top anti social security nazi's in the US and allowing them to run their scummy mouths off about social security cuts isn't helping things any.

[WI_DEM]

68. Obama and Dems did stop the recession as we have had 3 quarters of growth

but it is winding down and the bottom line is we need more stimulus. However, GOP and blue dogs don't want it.