German military report: Peak oil could lead to collapse of democracy

[babsbunny]

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2010/0901/german-report-peak-oil-collapse-democracy/

By Daniel Tencer
Wednesday, September 1st, 2010 -- 7:48 pm

Peak oil has happened or will happen some time around this year, and its consequences could threaten the continued survival of democratic governments, says a secret Germany military report that was leaked online.

According to Der Spiegel, the report from a think-tank inside the German military warns that shrinking global oil supplies will threaten the world's economic foundations and possibly lead to mass-scale upheaval within the next 15 to 30 years.

International trade would suffer as the cost of transporting goods across oceans would soar, resulting in "shortages in the supply of vital goods," the report states, as translated by Der Spiegel.

The result would be the collapse of the industrial supply chain. "In the medium term the global economic system and every market-oriented national economy would collapse," the report states.

[dimbear]

1. Oil hunger was one of the main drivers for WWII,

and one of the main means by which it was ended. Allied bombers devastated the Rumanian oil fields that Hitler had seized, leading to the stalling of German motorized devices of all sorts.

[Confusious]

7. Oil wasn't main, it was minor

Fascism itself was the main driving force for the war.There was plenty of oil then, the United States could even provide for it's own needs at the time. Germany and japan both wanted empires, and saw war as the way to do it, so by extension, they needed oil.

Now come the real oil wars.

[RainDog]

11. control of oil supplies was essential for winning the war

the German's were blocked from oil supplies in the middle east.

Fear was the driving force of fascism. Then and now.

We can deal with our energy issues - but it requires changes in our current laws, changes in how quickly we think something should move from here to there...

It seems that people are afraid to accept the need to make some changes - but that's where our govt's money should be invested - creating jobs in the U.S. to address the energy issue, just as the TVA brought electricity back in the day.

[Confusious]

12. Yes and no

Control of oil was essential, but it wasn't a main cause of the war. Ex. steel to build weapons, but it wasn't needed to start the war.

Germany got most of it's oil from Romania, and a smaller percentage from coal to oil conversion. They also created and used a lot of synthetics.

Nobody really got much oil from the middle east, oil wasn't found in saudi arabia until after ww2.

[RainDog]

17. I didn't say it was a cause - I said it was a reason for victory

two very diff. things

[Confusious]

21. Well, you're in the wrong thread

The topic was the reasons for the start of world war 2.

[RainDog]

24. LOL. okay. someone posted erroneous information about oil and WWII

and I noted the actual impact.

but, this is DU, after all, so insults are to be expected for absolutely no reason at all.

[Confusious]

26. Sorry, I should have been more clear

I noticed in my post I said "main driving force" I can see how that would have been misunderstood to mean something other then "main driving force for the start of the war"

Sorry if i sounded like a dick.

[Richard Steele]

20. I'm sorry, but that analysis is incorrect in almost every possible way. nm

[Confusious]

22. Really how so?

Dropping a bomb and running really doesn't make a case.

Hitler set out all the reasons for European war in mien kampf. Lebensraum.

The Japanese wanted resources. Oil was among those, but their islands are resource poor, so steel, managense and other rare metals were among those too.

Mostly it was just fascism, and the desire for empire.

There were other reasons also, quite a few in fact, but the topic is oil and wether it was a reason for the war.

[tuckessee]

23. It certainly was for Japan. n/t

[Canuckistanian]

2. Yup. We've come to the end of CHEAP oil

As I've always said, peak oil doesn't mean we've run out of oil. It means that only PROFITABLE or MILITARY activities will continue to use oil. Oil products will be priced FAR beyond the reach of ordinary consumers.

For the rest of us, it's public transportation or get an electric car powered by our own solar and wind generators.

This scenario won't happen next year. But I predict we'll see it's effects in 10 years or so. More likely earlier.

[ShamelessHussy]

3. This is THE reason why we are seeing all this craziness from our 'LEADERS' since 1990

our whole economy is based on controlling/securing access to the worlds oil, by forcing the world to buy their oil resources with our dollar, we don't need any other backing for our paper currency, and allows us to simply print money, without having to worry about the value of our currency deflating.

with demand soon to outstrip supply of this vital resource competition will be FIERCE to access it, and is why we have moved our forces into the middle east, period.

forget all that B$ about bringing freedom and democracy, or protecting the homeland from the cave people.

it's way past time to wake up, and get real.

[nadinbrzezinski]

4. Welcome to the party

DoD has said this a while ago.

Peah oil already happened by the way.

This ride will be painful.

[DCBob]

5. This is scary stuff because it seems very plausible and yet world leaders are ignoring it..

By the time the world comes to the realization there is a crisis, it will be late to do anything about it.

[ShamelessHussy]

6. the leaders aren't ignoring it, they are just trying to keep it hidden from the people

for as long as they can.

[northernlights]

8. +1000

they just don't want us to notice any time soon.

[Poll_Blind]

13. I, too, am compelled to give you +1000 for that comment.

So very true. So much of what's going on now, the reality of it- not just oil, but the financial situation of/in this country and some other terribly serious problems are studiously avoided as topics for mainstream discussion except, perhaps, in passing.

When it is too late, every one of the talking heads on the television will be speaking about it as though everyone also knew it was coming.

PB

[FedUpWithIt All]

30. + + + + + +

There is no way they would share that information freely. Too little has been done to prepare for this.

[Kringle]

9. the electric car is coming .nt

[depakid]

10. Americans are already well on their way to that...

[Kalun D]

14. "Peak Oil" is a SCAM

Read some Greg Palast, he's researched it quite well with one of the larger independent news teams out there.

Peak oil was originally started by Shell oil through an industry insider Hubbert. It was funded by Shell and done to raise prices, that's all it's ever done.

The most telling fact about "peak oil" is they keep moving the date of the peak ahead.

another for instance is Iraq. We went into Iraq not to get the oil but to stop Saddam from dumping on the market. They went in to control Iraq's oil not steal it. Iraq, the 2nd largest reserves in the world is still virtually untapped.

[ShamelessHussy]

16. if it's a scam, why did his model prove accurate when applied to U.S. production?

because it is based on sound, and basic science.

oil is a finite resource, and it's production will follow a bell curve, from start, to peak, to finish.

unless you think earth is producing oil faster than we consume it, it should be easy to grasp the model.

FYI: controlling something that doesn't belong to you is effectively stealing it, especially when you murder people to do it.

[nadinbrzezinski]

18. Peak is a scam, like Global Weather change

some folks will deny solid science all the way since it is damn scary...

:hi:

[Kalun D]

32. Not Saying

that Peak does not exist, just that it's further off than they are admitting.

supply drives cost, if you can somehow manipulate supply or even the perception of supply you can manipulate cost. Why would you not expect that the richest companies on the planet wouldn't try a little manipulation?

read Palast and see what you think, the foremost investigative reporter on the planet.

another one you might look at is diamonds, they aren't incredibly rare, they are just controlled. See the Frontline expose of DeBeers. It's a similar scam, control perception, control price.

[nadinbrzezinski]

33. it is here

Palast is good but he is way off on this.

[Kalun D]

31. Comparisons

The USA is a small part of the world, and we just don't happen to have as many reserves due to geological conditions. Comparing US to world doesn't necessarily apply unless you can prove oil reserves are evenly distributed and they are not. Also we are sitting on a large reserve in Alaska

Sure oil is finite, but peak is a lot further away than they are admitting, and technology keeps increasing potential.

not arguing that controlling Iraq wasn't stealing, of course it was. They just didn't invade because they wanted it now, they invaded to take it off the market to drive prices up. Just look at what happened right after we invaded, if we were going to use it now prices would have dropped, not skyrocketed.

don't take my word, read Palast. The one book of his I know about that talks about peak oil is Armed Madhouse.

[ShamelessHussy]

34. Let's see your research - LINKS

though i probably wouldn't read it considering what you just wrote above... it reveals you don't have a clue about what Dr. Hubbert's research entailed, not to mention the ongoing research since his time.

Here are some good online resources to bone up on this important topic...
http://www.energybulletin.net
http://www.peakoil.net

more...
http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/links.html

[Kalun D]

35. Palast "peak oil" info Is Not Online

You'll have to read his book, if you can't afford purchase I suggest the library

are you denying that Iraq is the 2nd largest reserve and it's not being tapped? Why is that if we are so short of oil?

I've been studying peak oil for years. Go back and look at where the price of oil was pre-Hubbert and what happened to that price once his "studies" became public.

Yes there is peak oil, the threat is an exaggerated scam.

[ShamelessHussy]

36. as someone who uses peer review as the gold standard when judging scientific work, Palast looses

by default on this one.

not sure why your are putting iraq words into my mouth, as i never mentioned it.

in regards to Hubbert, the cliff notes are...

- in the 1956 he predicted peak US production would occur early 70s
- he was scoffed at then (as now) until US oil production peaked in 1970
- first man to effectively apply principles of geology, physics and mathematics (in combination)
to the projection of future oil production

more...
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert

the fact that our very way of life is totally dependent on this finite resource, which has already peaked in many nations, that has many serious students of this resource saying that the world will peak soon, that are based on a proven, peer reviewed model of production behavior analysis, makes it almost impossible to exaggerate the threat to our civilization, let alone a scam.

good night, sir

[Kalun D]

38. Predictions

When did Hubbert first predict world peak and what was that prediction? Has that date already come and gone? Where is Hubbert from and who's behind him? Where was the price of oil before and after Hubbert's prediction?

I mention Iraq because you can't explain why the 2nd largest world reserves remain virtually untapped. How can we be at/near peak if so much oil remains unused?

What makes you think the richest companies on earth aren't going to buy up the scientists to get them to say whatever they want them to say? Especially if this means they will get even richer.

The attacked Iraq to control the oil, killing 100's of 1000's in the process. What makes you think they won't lie cheat and steal to manipulate the perception of peak oil if it's in their economic interests? If you are the richest of the rich how is it impossible to exaggerate a threat? You don't think companies like Monsanto, BP and Exxon "own" all the scientists they want?

[Kalun D]

39. Palast Is Not A Scientist

he's a journalist, one of the best investigative journalists on the planet. He has a full time staff of around 100 professionals. His specialty is exposing the corporations for the sham/fraud/farce that they are.

It's no secret the richest of the corporations do the most scamming, that's how they got that way.

Seriously, do you think corporate scientists are honest?

[femrap]

15. buh-bye

globalism. Start thinking LOCAL.

[Renew Deal]

19. This reminds me of the posts we saw from Wayne Madsen years ago.

Someone used to post his stuff all the time and it sounded like this.

[AlienGirl]

25. "Past Peak: A Story of the Near Future"

...The gas shortage was followed closely by a shortage of jobs, as businesses could not afford to pay for electricity and gas to ship products and still afford to pay workers. Of the three, only the workers were expendable. Job lines began appearing anywhere that looked like it might have work. It seemed odd at first to see middle-aged men and women in costly business suits standing in line for jobs cooking fast food or washing dishes, but we got used to it; and as the weeks wore on, the suits began to look bedraggled, a little frayed and wrinkled, a little more like they belonged.. Some of the prospective applicants had the more important pieces of their resumes written in big letters on signs that they could wave to get the attention of the management in the building. I noted these signs on my daily walk: one line twenty prospective workers deep at a Burger King contained three signs proclaiming “MA,” “MFA,” and “MSW.” Further down the line was an older, white-ponytailed man whose sign said “Ph.D Astronomy.”

More here.

Tucker

[MrScorpio]

27. Mad Max World, here we come!

Two men enter... One man leaves!

[Lorien]

28. But instead of leading the world in green energy technology and encouraging

conservation, it's "drill baby drill, spill baby spill, and kill baby kill!" all the keep the usual suspects uber rich and in control.

[Radical Activist]

29. Only if climate change doesn't get us first.

And I think it will.

Obviously, the Iraq war was done in expectation of peak oil.

[StreetKnowledge]

37. To all the chicken littles: Look up Green River Basin

And you know what? The USA is in pretty good shape when it comes to fossil fuels.

The Green River Basin holds an 1,466,000,000,000 barrels of oil. That's enough, on its own at current consumption rates, to fuel the United States until the year 2204. (Yes, really.) And there are a number of other oil shale deposits. And you can make oil from coal, a technique originally done by Nazi Germany but developed on a commercial scale in South Africa in the early 1980s. And one can also switch to stuff like cellulosic ethanol for fuels.

There is lots of oil in the world, and alternatives exist even then. We should be working on alternatives, but let's drop this chicken little stuff. It serves nobody's purposes.