Finally, there's a solid, empirically grounded comparison of the size of the Glen Beck rally and the

[Donnachaidh]

http://www.thedemocraticstrategist.org/strategist/2010/09/finally_theres_a_solid_empiric.php

Finally, there's a solid, empirically grounded comparison of the size of the Glen Beck rally and the Obama inauguration - Are you ready? The Beck Rally was only 11% of the size of the inauguration.

A couple of days ago I noted that CBS was the only news company that went to the trouble of hiring a professional aerial photo analysis company to estimate the size of the Beckapallosa last weekend and that the estimate CBS received was that only 87,000 people (plus or minus 9,000) had actually attended.

Even ignoring the estimates of the Beck rally's own organizers and participants, (which were based upon a combination of divine revelation and a handy, unlimited supply of zeros) 87,000 did seem a awfully low number just based on eyeballing the main long distance crowd photos in the press and comparing them with previous demonstrations. But, on the other hand, the photo company's methodology was the absolutely accepted standard for doing this kind of estimation and several different specialists used the aerial photos to provide independent estimates which were then consolidated into the final figure. I speculated that the explanation might lie in how densely packed the crowd was, which could not be judged in long distance photos, but without additional background information from the photo analysis company the discussion was at a dead end.

Well, the company has now released more information about the estimating procedure - including 400 aerial photos - and it appears that the 87,000 number is indeed very solidly grounded. You can read the details here but the bottom line is that the analysis followed the accepted procedures for this kind of analysis and the company has made their raw data public. From a scientific standpoint, their work is on solid ground.

But the really fascinating fact in the new information is this: this same company was used to estimate the number of people who attended the Obama inauguration. Their estimate at the time -- 800,000 -- was attacked by many Obama-boosters as far too low but was embraced by the right as the scientific gold standard.


More at the link ---

[notadmblnd]

1. 800,000 is a lot of people to get out on a bitter January day

while 87,000 on a beautiful late summer day- not so much.

[livetohike]

2. Lots of green space between the Beckites

this estimate seems right on.

[geckosfeet]

3. CBS hired a professional service to estimate the crowd size - 87k +/-9k. Story at link

Glenn Beck "Restoring Honor" Rally Crowd Estimate Explained

The estimate generated criticism from conservative bloggers as well as from Beck himself, who suggested the rally attracted at least 500,000 people

To calculate attendance at the Beck rally, AirPhotosLive.com used what is called a surveillance aerostat balloon to take pictures from both above the event and closer to the ground. In the video above, which was provided by the company, you can see some of the images used to come up with a figure.

Doig estimated that there were 80,000 people at the "Restoring Honor" rally, while AirPhotosLive.com estimated that there were 87,000 people, a statistically insignificant different since the margin of error was 9,000. CBS News elected to use the higher estimate.

Westergard, who said he has received hundreds of hate mails and angry phone calls over the estimate of the Beck rally, also pointed to this link showing roughly 400 photos the company took at the rally, arranged spatially. Many of these photos were used in generating the two estimates.

Science, math and facts. A triumvirate of confusion and disdain for teaparty beckerheds.

[AlinPA]

4. What did Fox "news" say for Beck's? 3.6 million? 10 million?

[Vickers]

5. "a handy, unlimited supply of zeros"

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

I think even I was closer in my initial estimate than the repukes...I based my estimate (80,000) on a comparison to a Springsteen concert I saw at the Frankfurt Waldstadion in 1985.

:P

[randr]

6. If faux snooze has an unlimited supply of zeros

would that include the hosts?

[ThomWV]

7. When I compared it to an ariel photo from the MLK rally I came up with 86k

[felinetta]

8. Honestly, does anyone believe anything out of Beck's mouth? It's all lies, lies, lies.