Will the Dems hang on to the Senate in 2010?

[IndianaJoe]

I was looking at things. If the Dems lose 10 or more Senate seats this November, they will lose control of the Senate. Here's how it seems to be stacking up:

Arkansas: Blanche Lincoln is way behind (20+ points) to John Boozeman. (Probable Dem Loss)
Colorado: Michael Bennet is slightly behind Tea Partier Ken Buck (Potential Dem Loss)
Delaware: Chris Coons is 8 points behind Mike Castle (Probable Dem Loss)
Illinois: Giannoulis slightly trails Kirk (Potential Dem Loss)
Indiana: Brad Ellsworth trails Dan Coats by more than 20 points (Probable Dem Loss)
Nevada: Harry Reid has a slight lead over Tea Partier Sharron Angle(Potential Dem Loss)
North Dakota: Tracy Potter trails John Hoeven by 50 points (Probable Dem Loss)
Pennsylvania: Joe Sestak trails Pat Toomey by 6 points (Potential Dem Loss)
Wisconsin: Russ Feingold is supposedly deadlocked with Ron Johnson (Potential Dem Loss)
Washington: Patty Murray supposedly trails Dino Rossi by 2 points (Potential Dem Loss)

California: Barbara Boxer has a 3 point lead over Carly Fiorina
New York: Kristen Gillibrand has a comfortable lead.

Methinks we hang on to the Senate but just barely. We won't be able to get much done there for at least 2 years.

[Vincardog]

1. You list 8 (Probable Dem Loss) and not one (Probable GOP Loss) even so you know they have to lose 10

to turn the Senate over.

No the Democratic party does NOT lose the Senate.

I do not believe we (The Democratic party) will even lose the 8 you list

[BzaDem]

3. That's because there is no probable GOP loss.

Paul is ahead of Conway by around 7 points in KY. Burr is ahead by about 8 points in NC. Ayotte is ahead by 8 points in NH. Vitter is ahead by 14 points in LA. Portman is ahead by about 7 points in OH. Blunt is ahead by about 7 points in MO.

[FBaggins]

7. FL is the closest... And I'm not sure it counts...

Since it would go to Crist.

[BzaDem]

14. Yes, if you count Crist as a Democrat that is at least a potential win.

I still think Rubio will win, because Crist and Meek will now be splitting the Democratic vote, but there have been some polls putting Crist ahead (as opposed to most of the other cases, where all or basically all polls have put the Republican ahead).

Meek of course has no chance of winning.

[Bluzmann57]

2. Ain't getting much done now

So what's the difference?
Actually, the difference is that Repubs will get things done, just not what the working class stiffs like me want. The things they will get done are tax cuts for the wealthy (redux), the total destruction of Organized Labor, more slave like labor, more wars, and so on. So get out and work for Dems even if they seem distasteful.
And I do not believe that a Dem will lose in Illinois. I also do not believe that Reid will lose in Nevada.

[BzaDem]

4. It all comes down to Boxer in CA, Murray in WA, and Feingold in WI.

We need to win 2 of those 3. My guess is we will likely lose the 8 you mention (with Reid as the barely possible exception).

[onehandle]

5. Senate, yes. House, not a chance. Speaker Boehner, get used to it. nt

[Upton]

6. Murray's in trouble here in Washington state too..

last couple polls have her trailing, though they were SUSA and Rasmussen. Whatever, right now, it looks like a tossup..

[IndianaJoe]

12. Murray surprised me. She's in trouble too. Updated.

[msongs]

8. when democrats act like republicans, republicans win. nt

[FBaggins]

9. Yes. We will retain the senate. IF...

... We concentrate on seats 7+ rather than 1-5.

[a kennedy]

10. and where does Wisconsin sit in your stacking up???

just wondering..... :shrug: one of his opponents is outspending him 3 to 1 :cry:

[IndianaJoe]

11. Didn't Realize Feingold was in such trouble - but he is. Updated.

[FBaggins]

13. You also missed Nelson/Lieberman

No... they aren't up for reelection. But if we lose nine seats one of them could flip. Both of them doing so (after eight losses) seems unlikely.

Heck... Lieberman might not even formally join them, but might push some sort of negotiated power sharing (as a decade ago) - likely with himself in a key role.

[BzaDem]

15. I thought so too. But Lieberman just donated the highest amount to Harry Reid.

I don't think Nelson will flip at all. He voted for the healthcare bill, which gives him a 0% chance of winning in any Republican primary. While he also probably has a low chance of winning as a Democrat after that vote, it is MUCH greater than the chance of winning a Republican primary.

[Rex]

16. We will gain some seats here and there.

Much to the frustration of certain people.