Gallup: Generic ballot question swings back to Tied at 46%

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

September 7, 2010
Parties Tied at 46% in Generic Ballot

Latest weekly update shows more competitive contest
by Frank Newport

PRINCETON, NJ -- Republicans and Democrats are tied at 46% among registered voters in Gallup's weekly tracking of congressional voting preferences, marking a shift after five consecutive weeks in which the Republicans held the advantage.

These results are based on aggregated data from more than 1,650 registered voters surveyed Aug. 30-Sept. 5 as part of Gallup Daily tracking. The results reflect more competitive voting intentions than has been the case recently. Republicans' leads over Democrats among registered voters in three of the previous four weeks were the highest Gallup has measured for this midterm election campaign, and higher than any GOP advantage Gallup has measured in a midterm election year since 1942.

Last week marked the return of President Barack Obama from his 10-day vacation, and included his national address to announce the official end of combat operations in Iraq. The president's three-day job approval rating rose to 47% for Aug. 29-31 -- a level it had reached only once since mid-July. Last week also brought media commentary in the aftermath of conservative talk-show host Glenn Beck's massive rally in Washington, D.C. It is not clear if these or other factors affected Americans' voting preferences as measured by the generic ballot.

Whether the 2010 race has shifted more permanently to a more competitive positioning will be apparent in the coming weeks. Nevertheless, even the current tie in the generic ballot among registered voters points to a better year for Republicans than for Democrats, given the GOP's usual advantage in voter turnout in midterm elections.



http://www.gallup.com/poll/142892/Parties-Tied-Generic-Ballot.aspx

________

When we are tied with Republicans in the national generic ballot question we lose pretty big (largely due to greater concentration in urban Dem districts), but tied is a lot better than 10%, and an impressive one week variation.

[bluestateguy]

1. So that ought to shut the media up for what, 5 minutes?

nt

[Pirate Smile]

3. They'll ignore it and focus on "the sky is falling" numbers from the ABC or NBC poll.

[regnaD kciN]

4. Nah...

A few more national news stories on "Republican tidal wave poised to sweep Democrats from power," and those poll results will be all-but-forgotten. :grr:

[spanone]

7. the current media has no interest in facts.

[bushisanidiot]

2. Well that should piss off the tea baggers and their MSM cronies

who so breathlessly report on doom and gloom for dems in Nov.

How's that whole "restoring honor" thing going for you, Beck-ites?

[onehandle]

5. Hopefully the 1.5 month long trend towards the man of orange is over.

We'll see.

[monmouth]

6. We must be closing the "enthusiasm gap." Bwahahahaha..n/t

[old mark]

8. Well, as of this afternoon, MSNBC is still talking about 15% differences

favoring the GOP!

Don't bother us with facts.

mark

[alstephenson]

9. Wow! That will be all over the MSM!

Oh, that's right, the MSM is too busy reporting on President Obama's new rug...

[mistertrickster]

10. Interesting. Obama talks like a liberal for the first time since the election, and poll numbers

start to swing our way.

Americans like a president who stands up for them?

Who knew . . .

[PBS Poll-435]

11. YOU'RE RUINING THE NARRATIVE!1!

The teevee says that Agent Orange is already measuring the drapes in the Speaker's office.

[bherrera]

12. it will be the economic news which makes the swing

The economy news during the forthcoming month will be what has the most impact. People have a big trend to vote according to their perception of the economy. The bad economy is the fault of President Bush, but the people are not aware of what a total disaster he created.

[unblock]

13. more evidence that the predictive value of the "generic ballot" question is pretty much nil.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

14. ---

[applegrove]

15. And the GOP has been in a perpetual campaign for 10 years. Obama has just

started to campaign. So much for the perpetual campaign Karl Rove. LOL!

[Codeine]

16. There is nothing more meaningless than generic ballot polls.

Well, circumcision threads are, I suppose.

[bemildred]

17. Polls are horseshit. This poll in particular is horseshit. nt