DKos: Gallup Poll Shock! (Not what you think)

[deminks]

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/9/7/899909/-Gallup-poll-shock!?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+dailykos%2Findex+%28Daily+Kos%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

Okay, I'll admit that my headline was over-the-top. But still, given the overwhelming coverage of the GOP's 10-point lead two weeks ago, shouldn't the fact that Gallup now shows the generic ballot tied at 46% be a Really Seriously Huge Story? After all, if the GOP's 10-point lead was the the biggest Republican lead ever, wouldn't that make this tie the GOP's biggest collapse ever?

(end snip)

and before the Joe Wilsons out there start shouting "You Lie!" here is a link to the previous galluping poll

http://www.gallup.com/poll/142718/gop-unprecedented-lead-generic-ballot.aspx

[gophates]

1. We could be 5 points up or more next week

People are waking up.

[saltpoint]

2. I'm hoping a lot of undecided Arizona voters take a look at

Jan Brewer's opening remarks segment of her recent debate and realize how vacously inappropriate she is as a public servant, never mind their governor.

Gallup is not known for its wildly liberal bent.

The numbers in that poll are encouraging.

[aquart]

4. Does nobody think Brewer is on pharmaceuticals?

She didn't appear to be drugged?

[saltpoint]

8. Seriously. You could almost SEE the brain fog,

rolling over her mind, such as it is.

It wouldn't have surprised me if she suddenly screamed out "Beheadings! The Brown People are beheading us in the desert! Run for your lives!"

[Tarheel_Dem]

3. That 10 pt. poll has been discussed far & wide, ad nauseum. The next...

couple of days should be interesting, to say the least.

[BzaDem]

6. Perhaps. But the 10 point poll was followed by a 9 point poll, 12 point poll, and 13 point poll

among likely voters by different polling organizations (NBC, Rasmussen, and ABC). CNN also had it at 7 among registered voters, which implies at least an 11 point lead among likely voters. All of these margins for Republicans are unprecedented in the history of polling.

Originally, the 10 point lead was an outlier. Now, the 0 point lead is an outlier. Though I'll take it compared to the other polls any day.

[BzaDem]

5. What's really scary is that a tie among registered voters implies at least a 4 point lead among LVs

(likely voters), and it could mean double that.

Remember, in 1994, when Republicans took 54 seats from the same starting point we have now, they were TIED in the poll among LIKELY voters. Here, even this good result implies we are in much worse shape than 1994. It is only a "good" result because 4 other polls have put the Republican lead among likely voters in double digits (which is completely unprecedented in polling history for Republican performance, and would imply something like an 80 seat switch or more).

[spanone]

7. what does this tells us about our liberal media? what is their story today?

that the democrats don't have a fucking prayer come november ......fuck meeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

[bluestateguy]

9. So the Republicans pissed away a 10 pt. lead in a week?

Gee.

[Tarheel_Dem]

10. I wouldn't be surprised if the Koch brothers didn't have a few polling outlets...

on the payroll. They're spreading money like butt'ah.

[Kablooie]

11. Geez. How many of these polls are actually designed to be neutral?

[gratuitous]

13. Polling is kind of an art

Since every poll depends on sampling (nobody polls 100% of everyone), the devil is in the details. For example, Rasmussen likes to use old percentages when it comes to dividing up their sample. Republicans used to comprise somewhere in the mid-30 percent of all voters, but now they're more like high 20s-30%. So, if you poll a sample with 35% Republicans, you're going to get a Republican-weighted poll that doesn't really represent reality. This is why a lot of compilations of polls discount or don't include Rasmussen. Why does Rasmussen continue to get coverage for its polls? Look back a couple of sentences.

The "art" of polling comes in when you start weighting in "likely" voters versus "registered" voters, age sampling (younger voters tend to vote in lower percentages than older voters), and other factors. Most polling outfits (read: not Rasmussen) strive for accuracy above all, because the more accurate their polls are, the more their polls will be commissioned. So, if by "neutral" you mean "accurate," just about all of them want to be neutral.

[Kablooie]

14. Interesting. Thanks for the explanation.

[Lochloosa]

16. Funny, some people consider Thomas Kinkade's work as "Art"

:evilgrin:

[OffWithTheirHeads]

18. Yeah but those seem to be the same folks who think Rush is an author.

My various occupations have allowed me the opportunity to enter many, many homes. Inevitably, the homes I entered who lacked at least one bookshelf usually had at least one book on prominent public display, usually by Rush. If they also happened to be affluent enough to afford a double wide, a print by Kinkaid was also present. God knows who buys the "originals".

[Drale]

12. Polls

can be made to say anything the poller wants it to, thats why I think its unethical to use polls on the nightly news because the "average" american is going to beleave anything the poll says but not understand the math behind it.

[Bitwit1234]

15. Polls are not very reliable.

First the companies are corporate republican. Second they results are only from those people they decide to call. Since they think republicans are more likely to vote they usually have a 40-60 ratio call favoring republicans. Most of the time. Gallup said that at one time. They said the reason they call more republicans is because they vote and Democrats don't.

[MaeScott]

17. I would not have known this news...

....I surely missed hearing this in the msm. I don't trust polls either.

[Curmudgeoness]

19. Regarding polls, I always want to have the exact question asked

instead of some assumption of what people meant. If you ask me "do you believe in abortion?", I would have to say no. If you ask me "do you believe that abortion should be legal", I would say yes. But the MSM will report from the first question that I "want abortion illegal", even though that was not at all what was asked, or what I said.