Sorry, but Nate Silver is wrong on LA-02

[Hawaii Hiker]

Seriously, 51% chance Democrats will win in a district that is as blue as any in the country...Come on, this one is more like 99.999%....

"Models aren't everything (including ours) and it is important to run a sanity check on the output. For example, Silver's model predicts a 51% chance that the Democrats will pick up LA-02. This is a majority black district in New Orleans with a PVI of D+25. It is one of the most reliably Democratic districts in the country, not having elected a Republican to Congress from 1891 to 2007, a span of over 100 years. In 2008, a Republican, Ahn "Joseph" Cao won--because the incumbent, "Dollar Bill" Jefferson, was under 16 counts of indictment for bribery and related crimes. He, as you may remember, was the owner of the freezer in which the FBI found $90,000 in cold hard cash. Despite this, Jefferson lost only by 2.7%. The Democratic candidate this year, is a black man, Cedric Richmond, who represents part of the CD in the Louisiana House. He got 73% of the vote in 2007. To say that Vietnamese Republican is an even match for a popular black state legislator in an overwhelmingly black Democratic district defies all reason".

www.electoral-vote.com

[miscsoc]

1. I don't know, but I agree with LBJ

always campaign like you're ten points behind

[LiberalFighter]

2. Nate needs to get his house in order.

[uberblonde]

3. Not necessarily.

He may be anticipating that turnout in black neighborhoods will be low.