The schizophrenic Gallup poll

[marmar]

New York – Last week Gallup had a record 10-point GOP lead in its generic party matchup; this week, the two parties are tied. Is the race for control of Congress really that fluid?

Republicans and Democrats are both expecting this election year to be a bad one for Democrats, and hundreds of polls between now and Nov. 2 will attempt to predict just how bad. So far, the picture has been rather unstable, especially regarding the generic poll question of which party voters like best. Capping off a roller-coaster summer, Gallup last week reported a shocking 10-point GOP advantage, the party's biggest lead over Democrats since 1942; but this week, the same Gallup poll finds the parties are tied. Commentators respond to the volatility and consider the implications for the November elections:

1. Polls, especially generic ones, are unreliable

The lesson here is "live by the Gallup, die by the Gallup," says Howard Kurtz in The Washington Post. Gallup has been particularly erratic this summer, but all tracking polls are "volatile," and generic-party ones are the "most problematic." Elections aren't between parties; they're between candidates, "and incumbents usually win." Right, it's better to "just flip coins when it comes to generics," says William Jacobson at Legal Insurrection, "and focus on race-by-race analysis." ............(more)

The complete piece is at: http://news.yahoo.com/s/theweek/20100910/cm_theweek/206948