Signs of a Democratic Rebound? - RCP

[WillyT]

Signs of a Democratic Rebound?
By Sean Trende - September 13, 2010

<snip>

It's always dangerous to see a handful of polls and start talking about a trend. At the same time, most trends start with a few polls that look like they might be outliers, but move in the same direction at the same time. And so it's worth noting that over the weekend, there were a few polls moving in the same direction showing good news for Democrats. On the other hand, there were still plenty of polls showing bad news for Democrats, so we must be cautious interpreting these data; we really just see "green shoots" for Democrats amid what had previously been uniformly bad polling news.

The Good News For Democrats

Connecticut Senate - Many race watchers had pegged the Connecticut Senate race as an "upset special." After all, Attorney General Richard Blumenthal had committed what looked a self-inflicted wound when it was discovered that he had exaggerated his military service. Republican Linda McMahon was far from an ideal candidate, but she was the consummate political outsider in an outsider year, and she had infinite funds to spend on New York media. Rasmussen Reports showed a steadily tightening race, and Democrats became increasingly concerned.

So it had to come as a bit of a relief to Democrats when Rasmussen Reports showed Blumenthal back over 50 percent, and expanding his lead from 7 points to 9 points. He leads 53 percent to 44 percent. This could be statistical noise, but it also could be a signal that Blumenthal has bottomed out, and that McMahon has peaked after solidifying the 44 percent of voters that cast ballots for George W. Bush in 2004. Blumenthal leads by 9.5 points in the RCP Average.

South Dakota At Large -Herseth Sandlin was one of those members that observers were increasingly writing off for dead. She was consistently in the low forties in polling and her opponent, Kristi Noem, was above 50 percent. That's a kiss of death for an incumbent. But Rasmussen Report's latest polling shows those numbers reversing now, with Herseth Sandlin at 47 percent and Noem at 45 percent. This comes as Herseth Sandlin starts her ad buy, and as Noem has come under fire for her numerous speeding tickets (the last occupant of the seat resigned after a manslaughter conviction for killing someone while driving). There is a special importance here, because this has been a major Democratic talking point: that once Republicans' records come under scrutiny, Democrats will rebound.

Nevada 3rd District - ...

<snip>

Much More: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/09/13/signs_of_a_democratic_rebound_107126.html

:shrug:

[spanone]

1. k&r

[Ramulux]

2. I have been saying this for about a week

Anyone who pays attention to the polls has noticed that there has been a flood of good polling news for the democrats recently. In almost every major poll I have seen we have the democrat either doing as good or better than expected, and in some cases its a big jump.

We have Murray up over Rossi by 9
Sink killing Scott in Florida
The enthusiasm gap closing
The Delaware republican primary turning into the greatest thing to ever happen to the democrats
The DCCC releasing a bunch of polls showing some endangered incumbents in much better shape than expected.
Bennett keeping it close in Colorado
Conway keeping it close in Kentucky
Lamontaigne surging on Ayotte in New Hampshire
Boxer establishing a decent lead that Fiorina probably wont be able to overcome.
Reid keeping the lead in a few different polls.
Obama's increased approval numbers

There is a lot more, I just cant remember all of them. But seriously, I cant believe more people haven't noticed this yet, its sometime comical how obvious the media is in their willingness to jump on bad polling and then literally sit there and not say anything while the dems have a week and a half straight of good polling.

[lonestarnot]

3. Are you kidding me? The nutters never were on top.

[Swamp Rat]

4. I feel certain that the Democrats are going to KICK THEIR ASSES this November!

Props to Skittles. :)

[opihimoimoi]

6. I concur... :o)

we should be Happy like those dudes in Europe

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8qLp2r7lkk&feature=more_related

[Swamp Rat]

8. Eine großes Bier, bitte!!

In München steht ein Hofbräuhaus:
Eins, zwei, g'suffa!
Da läuft so manches Fäßchen aus:
Eins, zwei, g'suffa!
Da hat so manche braver Mann:
Eins, zwei, g'suffa!
Gezeigt was er so vertragen kann
Schon früh am Morgen fing er an
Und spät am Abend kam er heraus
So schön ist's im Hofbräuhaus!!!

:toast: :beer:

[opihimoimoi]

9. LOL...I take it ya enjoyed...no specken de Duetch

[Swamp Rat]

10. It's an old German drinking song I learned while living in Austria

I was in an exchange program in Innsbruck, Austria when I was an undergrad, and made frequent trips to the Hofbräuhaus am Platzl in München (Munich, Germany). :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer:

:beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer:

[opihimoimoi]

11. Yo Swampy...you have total recall powers? amazing.

Innsbruck....passed by in 58 on my way to Lichenstien...Roma, Madrid, Lisboa...etc...a long time ago

I remember the Lake with Swans in them...never had a beer tho

You a lucky dude..

Wonderful photo

:hug: :beer: :toast:


Come, we go sing, laugh, drink, smile

[nadinbrzezinski]

5. From evidence, purely anecdotal at this point,

we are in for a Dewey defeats Trumman scenario.

Yes polls are not that trusty anymore... and it is not just the push polling. But also the methodology.

If I am right, this year will be studied in the future. I just hope Dems get the damn message though.

[Skittles]

7. certainly the nuttiness of repukes becomes clearer by the day