Nate Silver - After Delaware, G.O.P. Senate Takeover Appears Much Less Likely

[Swede]

Republicans, who are modest favorites to take over the House from Democrats, still have a chance to do the same in the United States Senate. But their odds have dropped significantly: from a 26 percent chance last week to 15 percent today, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecasting model.

The main reason for the decline is the outcome of Tuesday’s Republican primary in Delaware, in which the insurgent candidate, Christine O’Donnell, defeated Michael N. Castle. Two recent polls, including one completed after the primary, show her trailing her Democratic opponent, Chris Coons, by margins of 11 percent and 16 percent.

Although Ms. O’Donnell and Mr. Coons remain relatively unknown to some Delaware voters, and a comeback by Ms. O’Donnell is not impossible, the forecasting model gives it only a 6 percent likelihood of happening — and has established Mr. Coons, therefore, as a 94 percent favorite. Had Republican voters selected Mr. Castle instead, the numbers would be exactly the opposite: Mr. Castle would be the 94 percent favorite to win the seat, leaving Mr. Coons with just a 6 percent chance of an upset.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/16/after-delaware-g-o-p-senate-takeover-appears-much-less-likely/#more-1049

[BrklynLiberal]

1. I hope that demented sociopath keeps blabbering away for her entire campaign.

"Rats with fully functioning human brains...."

She is starting to make the barracuda look like the smart, sane one...

If any of these tbaggers ARE elected we will have to have keepers, not Sgts at Arms attending to Congress.

[onehandle]

2. Of Senate. Ask Nate about the House. nt