Why the Democrats will keep the House?

[kentuck]

The Tea Party is on the rampage.

So far, they have defeated about eight establishment Republicans. Nobody but the remaining establishment Repubs think they have finished their purge. The Tea Party have a larger list to work on.

It will be close but the Democrats will keep the House and Senate because the Tea Party will not change course. They will not instantly turn on a dime and support those Congressmen and Senators that they believe are part of the problem, not the solution. They will simply vote None of the Above on some Republicans that were not primaried. This will benefit the Democrats.

The Republicans will be the ones to face the wrath of the Tea Partiers, most of them Republicans already, with the elections in November. That is how I see it.

[Unvanguard]

Unfortunately, this tendency is not showing up in the polling.

Which means that it will probably not show up in the voting booth.

[kentuck]

3. Which poll you got?

??

Last poll I saw show the Parties about even.

[Unvanguard]

8. The generic ballot poll goes back and forth between Republican lead and tie.

And the polling aggregators I pay attention to--Nate Silver most notably--favor a Republican takeover.

It's not as bad as it could be. The Democrats have a decent shot at keeping the House. But they are not at this point the favorites.

[kentuck]

11. Few expect the Democrats to win more races than the Repubs...

But they have to win about 40 seats more than Dems to take the House. If they "only" win 35 seats, they are still the minority.

[Unvanguard]

12. The problem is that the Democrats have a large majority now.

And every House member is up for re-election: it's not like the Senate, where exposure is limited. So what matters in terms of the number of seats the Democrats lose is how popular they are relative to their standing in 2006 and 2008, not absolutely. That's why there's a good chance they'll lose the House: even a somewhat small Republican advantage might be enough.

[kentuck]

14. Also, is the Tea Party more focused on the Repub members or ..?

his Democratic opponent? Right now, it appears their anger is directed toward the Republican Party. That is why the Repubs should be sweating this election. This will be what keep them out of the majority, in my opinion.

[Unvanguard]

16. They are focusing their anger on Republicans because it is primary season still.

Once November comes along, they will vote for Republicans.

[kentuck]

17. That's what the establishment Repubs are betting on...

That is where they are miscalculating. The Tea Party wants to change the Republican Party.

[Cal33]

23. Come Nov. 2nd, when it's a choice between Repubs. and Dems.,

it seems logical that more Tea Partiers would think twice and choose Repubs. Don't you think?

[Unvanguard]

1. Duplicate. n/t

[bushisanidiot]

2. The republicon tea baggers are too stupid to realize that the "RINOS" were the only

shot they (R's) had to hold the seats they were holding. If the tea party/hard right takes control of the republicon establishment, pushing all the "RINOS" out, you will not see another republican governor, senator, congressperson from CA, IL, NY, MA, WA, OR, MI, IA, WI, ME, FL, PA, NM, CO, RI, NH, etc.. NONE of the left leaning states will have a hard right government leading them. Tea baggers are in DREAM LAND and the only one's to profit from their delusion are DEMOCRATS!!

So I say, keep 'em on camera.. and keep putting those microphones in front of them. Let them recruit all the crazies they want. It only works in our favor.

[ThomWV]

4. Agreed

[Upton]

5. Both Silver and Sabato

currently show the Democrats losing the House..and keeping the Senate, though with a reduced majority.

Until I have a reason not to, I'm going to believe them..

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/aia2010091601/

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/16/after-delaware-g-o-p-senate-takeover-appears-much-less-likely/

[kentuck]

7. They are the experts.

But look who the Tea Party has defeated thus far. Castle, Murkowski, Bennett, Greyson in KY, Crist in FL, Specter in PA, etc. The main philosophy of the Tea Party is to change government. They are radical Republicans. They are not going to vote for the Republican candidate just because they have an "R" by their name. Experts have been known to be wrong.

[LynneSin]

6. Well we'll probably get a +1 for the democrats here in Delaware

John Carney should be able to win back the house seat once owned by Republican Mike Castle. Glen Urquhart is another teabagger although he actually is a bit more viable than O'Donnell. He's run campaigns before AND lived off of his own earnings and not the earnings from being a perennial campaigner.

[KharmaTrain]

9. The Teabagger Ruse...

Yep, they sure are on the rampage...and as you say, against the GOOP. All of the baggers on the November ballot won in closed primaries...no Democrats or Independents and moderates need to apply either. The question isn't where are the Democrats as much as where are the rushpublican moderates? Have they been totally purged or numbed?

The Democrats haven't had many contentious primaries this year and thus the "enthusiasm gap". Now that we're getting down to brass tacks, we'll see if the threat of the baggers and Boner and McPruneface running or should I say ruining the government will be enough to get sane people to the polls.

[ClarkUSA]

10. If Democrats lose the House, millions of Americans will lose any chance of further UI extensions...

... which should be enough to make any real Democrat get out and volunteer now.

[Ozymanithrax]

13. We Democrats have our own Establishment and a group...

dedicated to removing the Dinos and purifying the party. No one talks about them because they don't wear Teabags in their head and misspell signs. It is possible that they will not support "Establishment Dems" and cancel out any teaparty problems. Also, many of the Establishment Republicans have already moved to do the Full Monty Teaparty, such as McCain. A lot of them are saying whatever it takes to keep the crazies voting.

I think we will lose 24 seats, enough to sting but no to kill.

[kentuck]

15. I agree.

Good example with McCain.

[Imajika]

18. At this point, no...

The tea party is knocking some of their moderates out via the primaries, but there is no indication the tea party voters will not vote for the entire Republican slate come November. They WILL vote, they will virtually always vote for an R over a D, and they are enthusiastic enough to bring other people to the polls.

It is hard to see, at this moment, how the Democrats wont lose at least 40 House seats come November. Right now I would say it is more like 55 or so.

We really must use the next 6 weeks to rally our base, remind friends and family to get ready to vote, etc. Labor Day has passed and the polls are still looking pretty dreadful.

[kentuck]

19. Conventional wisdom agrees with you...

But I still believe the Tea Party intends to change the Republican Party. That is their goal.

[Imajika]

20. Well yes, that is what they are doing...

But they are still going to vote Republican, and they are the most enthusiastic voters.

The Tea Party is changing the Republican party through the primaries, just exactly like many of us here say we should do to the Democratic Party.

Their policy ideas may be insane, but they are effective at pushing the GOP to the right.

Make no mistake though, these people will virtually ALL vote Republican straight up and down the line come November. The Tea Party is at minimum reshaping the Republican Party, but Tea Partiers are still Republicans and they can't wait to vote.

[kentuck]

21. I agree they are virtually all Republicans...

But where we disagree, and why I think the Democrats will keep the House, is that many of them will not vote in the general election for the Republican. I think they are more focused on changing the Republican Party than they are on defeating Democrats. At least, enough of them to make a difference in several races.

I agree that they are doing what many here only talk about, in challenging Repubs in the primaries.

[Imajika]

22. Why would they not vote for a Republican in the general?

The Tea Party IS Republicans. It is the fired up activist, conservative base. Their first mission has been to use the primaries to push the party to the right, their next mission is to vote for every Republican they can in the general.

You don't hardly see any Tea Party candidates running 3rd party. They have been smart that way, and learned from NY23. Instead of trying to go 3rd party, the right wing activists are simply taking over the dying carcass of the Republican Party. They are using the shell of the GOP for it's organization. It is actually quite a smart thing to do on their part.

I really think your going to be in for a horribly rude shock if you think these tea party people showing up in huge numbers in the primaries are not going to turn out and vote (R) in the general.

At this moment, we stand to lose at leave 40 seats in the House. It could be worse. There is, however, still time to turn it around.

[kentuck]

24. True...

But I don't think their anger stops with the eight they have displaced already. I think there are a few more they would like to get rid of. They won't vote for the Democrat but they won't vote for the Repub either, in some races. They want to reform the Repub Party. Just my opinion.

[Imajika]

27. These guys will crawl over broken glass to get to the polls...

There is no way they get there and don't pull the (R) lever.

That is, in 99% of all cases, their only real option. The Tea Party is just taking over the Republican organization so there is no 3rd party for them to vote for.

In order to punish what they consider a RINO, they aren't going to just not vote. Not this year, not in this election. There may be less or more enthusiasm in some districts, but the Teabaggers will definitely be voting in every race they can.

The enthusiasm the Tea Party movement has created on their side is pretty powerful. Enough to knock of more than a handful of Establishment Senate candidates. That is a pretty big deal and a dangerous omen for the Fall elections.

[DainBramaged]

25. K&R and a comment

too bad s few 'true believers' around here don't want this to even sniff the greatest page.

[spanone]

26. because the media says they will lose it.