2010 House and Senate Forecast Model: RV/LV Polls, Undecided Voters and Election FraudRichard Charnin (TruthIsAll) source: http://richardcharnin.com/2010ElectionForecastModels.htm bit.ly/9B1ntsSept. 18, 2010The 2010 Senate and House forecast models will be updated on a regular basis as new polling data becomes available. The models consider the difference between likely voter (LV) and registered voter (RV) polls. Since 2004, LV polls have accurately projected the recorded vote while RV polls (adjusted for undecided voters) closely matched the unadjusted and preliminary exit polls. Final RV polls gave the Democrats a 2-4% higher vote share than the LV polls.
Based on a mix of RV and LV polls, the
Senate Forecast Simulation Model indicates that the Democratic majority will shrink to 53-45.
The LV poll projections indicate a 50-48 Democratic Senate.
There is a 12% probability that the GOP will gain control (at least 50 seats).Based on the latest 13 Generic RV polls in which the GOP leads by 47.3-41.9%, the
Generic Poll Forecasting Model projects a 233-202 GOP House majority. The latest 7 LV polls (47.4-37.7%) project a 239-196 majority.
Registered and Likely VotersIn 2004, there were 22 million voters who did not vote in 2000. Nearly 60% of newly registered voters were Democrats for Kerry. In the 2006 midterms, a Democratic tsunami gave them control of both houses. In 2008, there were approximately 15 million new voters of whom 70% voted for Obama. All pre-election polls interview registered voters. Likely Voter (LV) polls are a subset of the full Registered Voter (RV) sample. LV polls exclude most "new" registered voters – first-timers and others who did not vote in the prior election.
Most pollsters use the Likely Voter Cutoff Model (
LVCM), a series of questions regarding past voting history, residential transience, intent to vote, etc. Since students, transients, low-income voters, immigrant new voters, etc. are much more likely to give "No" answers than established, wealthier, non-transient voters, Republicans are more likely to exceed the cutoff than Democrats. A respondent who indicates “yes” to four out of seven questions might be down-weighted to 50% compared to one who answers “yes” to all seven.
The LVCM assigns a weight of
zero to all respondents falling below the cutoff, eliminating them from the sample.
But these potential voters have more than a zero probability of voting. The number of "Yes" answers required to qualify as a likely voter is set based on how the pollster wants the sample to turn out. The more Republicans the pollster wants in the sample, the more "Yes" answers are required. This serves to eliminate many Democrats and skews the sample to the GOP.
Undecided Voters, Turnout and Election FraudIn 2004, 2006 and 2008, projections based on final pre-election LV polls closely matched fraudulent recorded vote shares. Projections based on the final pre-election RV polls closely matched the unadjusted exit polls. Undecided voters typically break heavily for the challenger. In each of the last three elections, the Democrats were the challengers, but many pollsters
did not allocate accordingly. Democratic voter turnout was underestimated by the pre-election LV polls (see
2004 Final Pre-election Polls).
Final exit polls are
always "forced" to match the recorded vote count, (i.e. the pre-election LV poll). The underlying assumption is that the recorded vote count is correct (i.e. zero fraud). In
2004 and
2008, the
Final national exit polls required an impossible turnout of returning Bush voters (
110% and 103%, respectively). In the 2004
Final NEP (13660 respondents), the
Bush vote shares were increased dramatically over the 12:22am
Preliminary NEP (13047 respondents). The NEP media consortium
of news outlets FOX, CNN, AP, ABC, CBS and NBC has
suppressed the release of the 2008
unadjusted state exit polls and un-
forced preliminary national exit polls.
The secret vote count fraud process inhibits the possibility of state recounts. Only Oregon and Washington have
mandatory hand recounts of machine tallies.
2010 Senate Forecast Simulation Model
Seats
Current
Lean
Safe
Tossup
Dem
57
0
8
8
GOP
41
2
16
0
Ind
2
MoE
UVA
GOP
Seats
Gain
Poll margin of error
Undecided to challenger
Average
LV
48
7
Probability Distribution of GOP Net Gains
Projection Trend
Date
9/15
9/10
9/1
8/26
Net
Seat GOP
7.2
7.4
8.1
5.8
Net
Seat GOP
4.1
5.0
6.4
4.6
GOP net gain is the average of 200 simulated election trials
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