On the 77% of young voters who say they will vote in November

[Mefistofeles]

As you may have read, a poll conducted by Rock The Vote a few days ago found that 77% of people aged 18-29 say they will vote in the November, 2010 elections.

Let us cite a basic fact:

Young voter turnout in 2008, the year in which an extremely popular young man ran for election, was "between 49.3 and 54.5 percent" according to a non-partisan group at Tuft University. link.


Absent from the equation is the following question: What was the difference between the number of young voters who showed up in 2008 and the number of young voters who said they would show up? Was any poll conducted in that regard?

Once we have the answer, can we extrapolate that ratio to the November, 2010 elections?

The record turnout for Presidential elections was 52% in 1972, the first time 18 year olds were allowed to vote. And I believe we all agree that Presidential elections will always have higher turnout that midterms. In conclusion, the 77% is, in my view, a fairy tale.

[onehandle]

1. Agreed. That number is total bs. nt

[TexasObserver]

2. Yes, it appears to be at least 50% higher than will happen.

If 50% of that demo votes in November, it will be a miracle.

[Radical Activist]

7. It's common for under 50% in any age group

to show up for an off-year election.

[TexasObserver]

12. So, you agree with me.

We agree that the OP is correct. The 77% figure is utter delusion.

[Radical Activist]

13. Yes. Just 53% youth turnout would be a total game changer.

[hlthe2b]

3. If they could do it by cell phone text ...

We might approach that. Otherwise, I'd say this is good in that they signal contemplation of voting, acknowledge the "need" to vote. But, whether they will incur any "inconvenience" required to vote may be another issue.

But, I'm hopeful.

[mitchtv]

4. there maybe a suprise in Calif, with Prop 19 on the ballot

to legalize recreational use of MJ

[Iggo]

8. Haven't seen anything on TV about Prop 19.

I bet the kids don't even know about it.

[Radical Activist]

14. haha There's this thing called the internet...

[Aramchek]

5. did you come here just to post this?? interesting...

well, not really.

[Posteritatis]

9. Ahhh, DU paranoia about newbies. (nt)

[Radical Activist]

6. OK, but so what? You missed the point.

Of course youth turnout is unlikely to be 77%. But...if youth turnout is higher than normal for an off-year election it means that all the polls are wrong. 53% youth turnout could make the difference in a number of important races for Senate, Congress, Governor etc.

[EFerrari]

10. It may be a fairy tale but the value of the polling was contacting

young voters and reminding them to vote, in any case.

[nadinbrzezinski]

11. All polls are suspect these days

mostly due to methodology.

That said, we may get a surprise as to how many of the youth actually show up. I suspect it will be higher than traditional, and since they are not reached by traditional polls...