Recession officially ended

[nmbluesky]

The Great Recession ended in June 2009, according to the body charged with dating when recessions begin and end.

The National Bureau of Economic Research, an independent group of economists, released a statement Monday saying economic data now clearly points to the economy turning higher last summer.

That makes the 18-month recession that started in December 2007 the longest and deepest downturn for the U.S. economy since the Great Depression."Economic activity is typically below normal in the early stages of an expansion, and it sometimes remains so well into the expansion," said the NBER.

Most economists have been saying for months that the recession likely ended in the summer of 2009. But the NBER typically takes a long time to declare the start and end of recessions, waiting for all the economic data to be revised and finalized and making sure that any change in direction of the economy is long-lasting. It didn't declare that the recession started in December of 2007 until a year later.The NBER acknowledged the risk of double-dip recession in its statement, but said "The committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in December 2007. The basis for this decision was the length and strength of the recovery to date."

http://money.cnn.com/2010/09/20/news/economy/recession_over/index.htm?hpt=T1&iref=BN1

[Lost4words]

1. hilarious

[ejpoeta]

2. i guess that leads me to ask an obvious question.....

what exactly is their definition of a recession, because where i am sitting if you take out the gains of the banks and others at the top, there is a double digit unemployment and an increasing number of people falling into poverty. so, what is a recession if it is supposedly over.

[frazzled]

4. Technical answer: decline in GDP for 2 consecutive quarters

That is the part that ended in June 2009: GDP started growing again.

Increased unemployment, etc. are fallout from that decline (in other words, collateral damage). That part is not yet fixed, and it will be some time.

[NoGOPZone]

7. Here's a link to a statement on their website..

http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions.html

Some key excerpts.

"A recession is a period between a peak and a trough, and an expansion is a period between a trough and a peak. During a recession, a significant decline in economic activity spreads across the economy and can last from a few months to more than a year."

"A recession may include a short period of expansion followed by further decline; an expansion may include a short period of contraction followed by further growth. The Committee applies its judgment based on the above definitions of recessions and expansions and has no fixed rule to determine whether a contraction is only a short interruption of an expansion, or an expansion is only a short interruption of a contraction."

Of course, if you want the simple translation, a recession ends whenever they've decided it's
ended. ;-)

[frazzled]

3. Too bad they never told us when it started

December 2007. Just think about it. There was no public acknowledgment or recognition of it until the fall of 2008, when the financial sector almost collapsed.

I know this announcement will get a lot of guffaws. But it shouldn't. It means that by June 2009 the downturn ended and growth began. It's a technical term and assessment. And it's true. It's also true that it will take a long time to keep growing to the point where things are better. But to return to where we were during the go-go bubble years under Republican mayhem--well, I hope we don't get back there.

[leveymg]

5. . . . and Depression started.

This is absurd - unemployment, poverty and foreclosures continue to climb, and they say the economy has recovered? The economists don't measure the same universe most of the American workers live and work in.

[Lost4words]

6. agreed! nt

I remember when the the Drs told my father his tumor had almost completely gone away with his chemo and radiation, we were all very excited and relieved, he died 6 months later with the cancer spreading throughout his body.

So I am a little reluctant to listen to the experts or good news that doesn't pass the smell test.

[marmar]

8. Bullshit officially unbelievable.

nt

[Fla_Democrat]

9. Alright all you slackers, you heard it

the Recession is over.... get back to work. :hide:


:smoke: