Gallup poll "shock" part two: Dems lead generic

[cal04]

by Jed Lewison
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/9/20/903630/-Gallup-poll-shock-part-two:-Dems-lead-generic

Gallup's latest national poll of registered voters, hot off the press:

Generic Ballot Virtually Tied: Democrats 46%, Republicans 45%

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup's generic ballot for Congress for the week of Sept. 13-19 shows a 46% Democratic and 45% Republican split in registered voters' preferences for the midterm congressional elections. It is the second week out of the last three in which the two parties have been virtually tied.

Gallup's been all over the map this cycle and this is not a poll of likely voters, so don't start preparing a victory parade just yet. However, according to their own numbers, in August the GOP had a six point advantage in interviews conducted with 7,025 respondents. So far in September, that advantage has shrunk to one point based on 5,625 surveys.

Although these numbers are by no means the final word, they offer at least some sign that Democratic fortunes may be improving. The timing actually makes sense given that President Obama kicked off the campaign on Labor Day and the GOP has been on defensive over their opposition to his tax cut plan. And don't forget that the GOP has marched off the edge of the cliff with the nomination of Christine O'Donnell in Delaware and Joe Miller in Alaska.

Gallup isn't alone in showing a narrowing generic: since August, Pollster.com shows a dramatically narrowing GOP lead (and it's even closer if you exclude Rasmussen). At the very least, these numbers should remind Dems (particularly those in Congress who want to punt on the tax cut issue) that they shouldn't give up now. We may not be favorites, but we're still in the game.

http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/10-us-house-genballot.php?xml=/flashcharts/content/xml/10USHouseGenBallot.xml&choices=Republican,Democrat&phone=&ivr=&internet=0&mail=&smoothing=more&from_date=2010-01-01&to_date=&min_pct=&max_pct=&grid=&points=&trends=&lines=

http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/10-us-house-genballot.php?xml=/flashcharts/content/xml/10USHouseGenBallot.xml&choices=Republican,Democrat&phone=&ivr=PPP%20%28D%29&internet=0&mail=&smoothing=more&from_date=2010-01-01&to_date=&min_pct=&max_pct=&grid=&points=&trends=&lines=

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/42439.html

[USArmyParatrooper]

1. +1 for good news in a sea of negativity!

[itsrobert]

2. Being tied means LOSING SEATS

Yes, we maybe able to keep the house, but our lead will be small. On the bright side, our huge majority we have, doesn't make a difference so it seems.

[USArmyParatrooper]

6. "Democrats, just congenitally, tend to get -- to see the glass as half empty."

On the brighter side, it means we're gaining ground. Tied when we have a Democratic President (which always helps the opposition's congressional seat) and still a long economic recovery ahead ---- that's not so bad.

Who here wasn't expecting to lose seats even two years ago? I certainly was.

[mzmolly]

8. What huge majority. We're not having an issue with the house

it's the Senate, where we don't have a 'huge' majority, that we can't get bills through.

[TheWraith]

9. Not necessarily, no.

It means that all other things being equal, people will vote for a generic Dem about as often as they will a generic Republican. However, things are very rarely equal. For starters, most people tend to support their own congresscritter at a much higher rate than the Congress as a whole. Take the New York 20th CD. It's the most Republican district in New York by registration, with 70,000 more Republicans than Democrats. But a recent poll shows the incumbent first term Democrat leading his Republican challenger, 54 to 37.

[pnwmom]

3. It's not a lead -- and it's not a lead when they're up one either.

When it's within the margin of error it's too close to call. This will be a very close, very important election.

[gratuitous]

4. Boy, watch for the 24-7 wall-to-wall media coverage of this development

I suggest getting an electron microscope, and if you can, hook it up to the Hubble Telescope. You then just might (might) detect some popular media interest in the fact that the Republicans no longer look like a mortal lock to assume majorities in both houses of Congress. In fact, they might even fumble away a "safe" seat or four. And they won't have a majority in either the House or the Senate. Don't hold your breath waiting for that analysis, though.

[spanone]

5. the media is our worse political enemy

[ClarkUSA]

7. President Obama's very public campaigning is obviously having an effect. nt

[The Magistrate]

10. It Would Be Interesting, Ma'am, To See A Regional Breakdown To These Figures

My guess would be responses at the South distort the national figure considerably....

[The Magistrate]

11. It Would Be Interesting, Ma'am, To See A Regional Breakdown To These Figures

My guess would be responses at the South distort the national figure considerably....

[Ramulux]

12. I cant wait to see the media...

be forced to begin admitting they were wrong about the democratic doomsday scenario and that the polls have been tightening for a few weeks now. They eventually aren't going to have a choice but to admit that the senate is pretty much safe at this point with Murray and Boxer moving out of range and O'Donnell taking Delaware out of the picture. They are also going to have to start reporting on all the positive house polls that have been coming out, it isn't all uniformly good news but there has been quite a few showing supposedly endangered incumbents with very strong leads. I just cant wait to see the narrative begin to shift.