People here are starting to turn on Manchin--people from BOTH ends of the political spectrum. He enjoyed enormous approval ratings for a long time because he's a DINO (anti-choice, anti-gay, pro-business, etc.) and he didn't do much to ruffle conservative feathers. Democrats voted for him mostly because he was the Democrat on the ticket. Liberals here in West Virginia have pretty much given up hope of ever having anything better than a DINO for a governor.
However, replacing Robert Byrd? Giving him a job on the national stage with the ability to affect national policies? Wooo boy. That's an ENTIRELY different can of worms. Manchin has made some enormous, enormous mistakes. Here's a basic list of reasons why people are starting to turn on him.
1. He's an arrogant toad. Seriously. When Byrd died, Manchin basically told the people of this state that he was doing us a "favor" by not just APPOINTING himself to the position. As if a governor appointing himself to the Senate is something perfectly normal and acceptable. Byrd was hardly cold in his grave before Manchin was grandstanding on TV, acting like he'd had all of this planned out for years. The "special election" we're having right now is NOT required by state law--Manchin forced it because he wants that seat, and the party leaders let him do it. It was really disgusting. More and more people just think that the guy is an asshole.
2. He has no loyalties except to himself. Everybody knows that if Manchin makes it to the Senate, his number ONE priority will be KEEPING Manchin in the Senate. Byrd wasn't like that. His Senatorial priority was always seeking funds and jobs for the people in his impoverished state. He was famous for it. And even though Byrd was often wrong on the issues, he still had a dignity about him that makes Manchin seem like a cheap, cheesy used-car salesman in comparison. Even the people who hated Byrd's politics still respected his gravitas and wisdom. Having Manchin in his place seems like the worst insult imaginable.
3. He blocked Blair Mountain from being declared a national historic site in order to protect the interests of coal companies who want to strip-mine it. If you don't understand why that's a big deal, especially to coal miners and union members, I highly recommend a quick read here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Blair_Mountain 4. Liberals despise him because he's even further to the right than Byrd was, at least on some issues. The man is virulently anti-choice; although nobody really cared much about that when he was merely a state governor (because abortion is mostly considered a "federal" issue by the liberals here), the lefties in West Virginia are absolutely sickened by the idea of voting for someone who's anti-choice, anti-gay, anti-welfare, and anti-progress. Seriously, people--you know the DINO Senators we all despise, like Ben Nelson? Manchin is exactly like them. I'm sure SOME liberals will hold their noses and just vote the ticket, but there are many who are openly hostile to the man, and more than once have I heard "I'd rather french kiss a rattlesnake than vote for Joe Manchin again. It's probably more pleasant and less dangerous." These people aren't DU'ers, and they really don't give a damn whether or not WE think they should hold their noses and do it. WVU's Young Democrats have lost a huge chunk of their student membership for supporting the man, even though they pretty much HAVE to. There's been an surge in interest in the local Green Party affiliate, called the "Mountain Party", and I do believe that their candidate Jesse Johnson is going to get more votes this time around than he ever has before. Not enough to win or to even come close, but maybe enough to spoil it for Manchin. I honestly can't bring myself to really blame them, either. Expecting liberal Democrats (especially FEMALE liberal Democrats) to vote a man into national office who loudly opposes reproductive choice might turn out to have been a bit too much to ask. We were stupid to have ever let Manchin put himself up for the nomination. STUPID. The national party should have stopped his ambition and put a tough, pro-labor Democrat up who doesn't piss of the left wing quite so much, but all they saw were Manchin's approval ratings as governor. Governor, unfortunately, does NOT equal Senator.
5. The Republicans smell the blood in the water, and their base is a LOT more energized here than ours. They've been salivating, waiting for Byrd to die, in order to get this seat--and they're being super-duper careful to try and appease the center. It's working, unfortunately. The moderates aren't scared of Raese because they consider him to be a moderate too. If the Republicans had nominated an overt right-wing, union-hating lunatic like O'Donnell, we might have a shot...but they didn't. Raese very well might BE a right-wing lunatic, but he's hiding it, and since he owns some major state newspapers, he's been dog-whistling to the Tea Party types in his papers without making himself look like a fringe nut. Just last week our local paper (a Raese paper) ran a full-page "fact" sheet about the Tea Party. It was practically a damage-control primer, explaining how "patriotic" they are, and trying to minimize the fringe nut stuff. Rhythm and I physically winced when we saw it, because this paper has a pretty damned big circulation.
My prediction? We're probably going to lose this seat--and maybe one of our Congressional seats too, since Mike Oliverio (our Dem nominee) is a carbon-copy of Manchin, and the district Oliverio is running for is by far the most liberal one in the state.
It's just been one stupid, stupid mistake after another on the part of the national party leaders. If they'd have set Manchin down and told him to wait a decent amount of time after Byrd's death before trying to put HIMSELF in Byrd's seat, then we wouldn't be such bad shape. West Virginia isn't like most other states, where you have two solid Democratic and Republican bases and then a smaller, fluid "center". Here, the center is the "solid" part and the fluid part is the fringe. This election is NOT going to be decided by the center. It's going to be decided by the left wing, along with the people from BOTH "bases" who are sick of Manchin's arrogance, and I don't think our national party is going to like the results.
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