Why Generic Ballots May Underestimate Democrats.

[elleng]

Source: nyt

Nate Silver

The notion that specific Democratic candidates do slightly better than generic ones would square with what we’re seeing elsewhere in the data. It also arguably squares with the respective strategies of the two parties, as Republicans are generally trying to nationalize the race, while Democrats — lacking much in the way of a coherent national message — are trying to localize it. Mr. Arcuri, for instance, the Democratic incumbent we discussed above, did not vote for the Democrats’ health care bill the second time it came up for a vote in the House (although he did vote for it the first time), which might immunize him from some “generic” Republican attacks on “Obamacare.”


Read more: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/21/why-the-generic-ballot-may-underestimate-democrats/?hp

[AlbertCat]

1. while Democrats — lacking much in the way of a coherent national message

They are lacking a coherent message? Really? I thought it had to do with not going back to the disastrous policies the Repugs gave us when they were in charge.

So what is the Repug coherent message? I thought it was going back to the good ol' Bush years.

I thought the Dems wanted to create jobs by not using trickle down economics that haven't worked for the past 30 years.

Reugs want to give rich folks tax breaks... because it's worked so well up until now!

[glitch]

6. Perhaps he meant to say "consistently incoherent"

thus making the effort to appeal to their base.

[Alcibiades]

2. I disagree that Republicans have a coherent national message

This isn't really a new finding, but a good article nonetheless.

[Bitwit1234]

3. fox and Rush and Beck are the ones who spread the news

about the republicans. And they called here with a poll and my son was upset but what he did was tell them he was going to vote a straight republican ticket. I was aghast. He hung up and said "You know better than that. They say the republicans are winning anyway so I just made it up and gave them something to gloat about." Then he said "I bet a lot of Democrats get so fed up with these lying polls they do the same thing>" Do you think.

[MsPithy]

7. Republicans do not need a coherent message!

Their base believes anything Fox channel says. As a matter of fact republicans have no problem believing things that are not only not coherent, they are down right opposite. Obama was too influenced by Rev. Wright after sitting in his church for decades--- and Obama is a Muslim. See, believing opposites are no problem. Ain't cognitive dissonance grand!

[No Elephants]

11. Agree. "We're obstructionists" is not a coherent national message.

They are not offering anything. Though I have not read the new Contract on America yet, their track record with the first one makes the new one irrelevant.

[Bluenorthwest]

4. That Nate, sharp as a tack, sees he is going to be wrong

and starts questioning his own data. Last week he was using 'generics' all over the place, and I said it was silly to do when candidate names are known, unless you are wanting to fudge the results.
Nate is a hack. His thinking is shallow.

[HughMoran]

5. "Nate is a hack. His thinking is shallow. "

If Nate is a hack, then there's no suck thing as an 'expert' in your world (except yourself, of course.)

[Optimistic]

8. Problem this November

The Racists (KKK aka Tea Party aka Republicans) who hate Obama and anyone who is gay, speaks Spanish will have 100% Turnout this November while the Progressives are disappointed with what is happening may not show and I fear the KKK will gain as much as 100 Seats in the House and may win every Democratic seat in the Senate.

[AlbertCat]

10. I fear the KKK will gain as much as 100 Seats

You are making the mistake that:

a) "unenthusiastic" means they will not show up. Many will "reluctantly" drag themselves to the polls.... so that is not a 100% deficit
b) the assumption that it is a 50/50 voting block. There are many more Dems than Repugs.... or there have been for a while. Even in 2000! 2004 was close. 2006 we won. 2008... we won again. More people identify with liberal ideas than with teabagger ideas.

It is not your fault for not considering these things. The stories are framed on just about all media as if there's this HUGE repug popular wave. It's just loud, not huge.


STILL.... everyone needs to not just assume everything will be alright! Encourage everyone to vote! Even if they don't feel like it! I personally don't think anyone at all cares how I vote. But if I don't vote, I have no right to complain.

[pattmarty]

9. Nate Silver and Charlie Cook are two of the most trusted on their.............

.........figures/predictions. The always problem with polls out further than say 2 weeks, they are subject to anything between when the poll was taken and voting day. It's still a ways off folks, and it looks like the Dems are gaining on the "you want to go back to that?" schtick.