Could Barney Frank Be in Trouble?

[babylonsister]

Could Barney Frank Be in Trouble?

By Steve Peoples | September 22, 2010 1:40 PM


Massachusetts' 4th district may be among this year's top sleepers. At least that's the storyline being pushed by Republican candidate Sean Bielat, who is trying to knock off House Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank.

The Bielat campaign released an internal poll Wednesday showing that Frank's support "has dipped below 50 percent." Bielat trails "by just 10 points," 48 percent to 38 percent, according to the survey of 400 likely voters by the Republican firm OnMessage. The margin of error is 4.9 percent.

As further evidence that the race is tightening, Bielat cites an upcoming visit by former President Bill Clinton, who will headline a Frank campaign rally in Taunton Sunday. The event, to be held at a local high school, is free and open to the public. Roughly 4,000 people are expected to attend.

"People are sick and tired of Washington and career politicians. That's why Barney Frank's poll numbers are dropping like a rock and why he's taking desperate measures like bringing in Bill Clinton to campaign for him," Bielat said. "National support is snowballing and our campaign and supporters are more enthusiastic than ever. It shows what we've known all along: we are on track to replace an entrenched politician who's been part of the problem for years."

The Frank campaign dismisses the Bielat polling numbers and the suggestion that the incumbent is in trouble.

"What this is - read between the lines - this is a fundraising memo. This is the NRCC telling its people that with some money, he could do OK," said Frank spokesman Harry Gural. "According to our numbers we are up by more than 20 points no matter what we do."

more...

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/09/barney-frank-in-trouble.html

[pinto]

1. Eh. Agree with Frank's staff, from what I've read. This is NRCC bluster.

:hi:

(ed to make a complete sentence, duh. )

[Mass]

2. Sure. The GOP has been trying to find reasons for optimism in MA. They have a very hard time finding

any.

I love the idea he trails "by just 10 points" :LOL:. Only in MA does this sound like a bad thing.

I'd like to see polls from the 10th district though, as well as Neal's district around Springfield. Neal's opponent has a huge yard sign presence.

[Arkana]

5. For the record, so does John Olver's opponent.

Bill Gunn's a local boy--lives in Ware, about 15 minutes away from me, so every jackhole in Hardwick and Ware is gonna vote for him. But upon checking Nate Silver's website, I found that Gunn has something on the order of 20K in the bank to Olver's 600K. He has no TV ads, no paper ads, no mailers. All he has done is propagate a gazillion yard signs--and he couldn't even get a volunteer to hold up his sign on primary day--he was out there himself waving it around.

Yard signs are an indication of nothing but how many yard signs you have.

[uncommon]

9. They are really pushing the under-representation of conservatives here - it's crazy.

Jeff Perry in the 10th is getting a lot of attention, which I could see going national this week since he made an interesting comment yesterday or the day before in which he said he would not want Sarah Palin stumping for him (and he called her an "entertainer" which was pretty awesome from a liberal perspective).

And we love Republican governors in MA (for reasons that escape me) so I don't think anyone should discount Charlie Baker just yet.

[bluerum]

3. doubtful

[Arkana]

4. You can rig internal polling any way you want.

Frank's in no trouble.

[PBS Poll-435]

6. It is probably going to be closer than most people would believe, but he will still win. nt

[uncommon]

7. I doubt it. The races I am worried about in MA are Jeff Perry in the 10th

and Charlie Baker for governor. Patrick is less than optimal, but I don't want a health insurance company CEO in charge of Massachusetts.

Jeff Perry is a bona fide Teabagger but also purposely distanced himself from Sarah Palin this week which could give him some Scott Brown-esque momentum with Independents and that should worry a lot of people.

[Mass]

10. I am less worried for Baker. After all the money he spent in ads and 6 debates

people have still no idea what they think of him and he has not been able to pass Patrick in the polls, when Patrick started with an dismally low approval rating (which is now around 50%). Of course, there is no reason to be complacent.

Perry though is not to be ignored, particularly given the fact it is an open seat.

[uncommon]

11. Indeed. Baker's numbers are impressive considering how little there is out there about him,

and the Teabaggers will be getting out the vote, so it's something I'm keeping on my radar, but Jeff Perry is definitely the issue.

[KharmaTrain]

8. 400 Respondants & 4.9% MOE?

And all he could do was come in within 10 points? Pretty pathetic, but I'm sure he'll get some right wing sucker to write a check.