Democratic Poll Leaders

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_______ Florida Democratic Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink leads Republican businessman Rick Scott 47 percent to 40 percent in the latest survey of the Florida governor race from Mason Dixon Polling & Research.

The poll finds that Scott has yet to fully consolidate support among Republicans after a contentious primary battle with Attorney General Bill McCollum, who relentlessly attacked Scott for his tenure as CEO of Columbia/HCA, which was forced to pay a $1.7 billion Medicare fraud fine.

Scott has the support of 75 percent of Republicans surveyed. Sink, on the other hand, earns the support of 81 percent of Democrats. She also has a seven-point advantage among independent voters.

Another obstacle facing Scott is the fact that the battering he took during the primary continues to weigh down his favorability numbers. The Mason-Dixon poll shows that 47 percent of voters view him unfavorably. Thirty percent view him favorably. Sink enjoys a 44 percent favorable rating while only 23 percent view her unfavorably.

read: http://realclearpolitics.blogs.time.com/2010/09/23/sink-maintains-lead-over-scott-in-fl-gov-race/


________ In the U.S. Senate race (New York), Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand tops Republican Joseph DioGuardi 48 – 42 percent.

Sen. Gillibrand leads 86 – 9 percent among Democrats while DioGuardi leads 88 – 8 percent among Republicans. Independent voters split with 42 percent for DioGuardi and 41 percent for Gillibrand.

New York State voters approve 49 – 37 percent of the job Gillibrand is doing and give her a 43 – 32 percent favorability rating. For DioGuardi, 61 percent haven’t heard enough about him to form an opinion.

Democratic U.S. Sen. Charles Schumer leads his little-known Republican challenger, Jay Townsend, 54 – 38 percent. Voters approve 55 – 39 percent of the job Schumer is doing and give him a 55 – 37 percent favorability. For Townsend, 70 percent don’t know enough about him to form an opinion.

read: http://www.empirestatenews.net/News/20100924-1.html


________ Right after the August primary, the KING 5 tracking poll found Republican Dino Rossi was ahead. But Democratic incumbent Patty Murray (Washington) has been gaining ground and in our latest poll, it's effectively a dead heat with 50% telling SurveyUSA they now favor Murray; 48% Rossi.

Murray has been attacking Rossi hard on the airwaves, which may account for part of a swing to Murray that we've seen in several recent polls. Some interesting breakdowns:

--Rossi has a significant lead among men (54% to 44%), and voters under age 50 (52% to 45%). He holds on to 91% of the Republican vote. His lead in eastern Washington is down, but he's still ahead (52% to 47%).

--Murray has a significant lead among women (57% to 40%) and voters over age 50 (54% to 43%). She holds 89% of Democrats. Her lead in Metro Seattle is 52% to 45%.

read: http://www.king5.com/community/blogs/politiking/KING-5-Poll-Murray-gains-ground-on-Rossi-Senate-race-a-dead-heat-103584434.html


_______ Joe DioGuardi., a former Republican congressman and certified public accountant, is challenging Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, a Democrat (NY Hudson Valley), on a platform of smaller government and cutting spending.

A recent Quinnipiac poll shows Gillibrand with a six point lead, with 48 percent to Dioguardi’s 42 percent.

The two hold significant leads within their own parties, though independent voters are split with 42 percent for DioGuardi and 41 percent for Gillibrand.

read: http://polhudson.lohudblogs.com/2010/09/24/sliwa-headlining-dioguardi-fundraiser-as-poll-shows-gillibrand-with-lead/


_______ Two new California polls confirm that Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer is maintaining a narrow lead over Republican challenger Carly Fiorina.

A new Field poll of California released this morning shows Boxer leading Fiorina by six percentage points (47% to 41%), while a new automated SurveyUSA poll yields fewer undecided voters but gives Boxer the same six-point advantage (49% to 43%). A handful of automated surveys in late August and early September suggested a tighter race, including two earlier polls from SurveyUSA that gave Fiorina a slight edge, but the last five surveys conducted since mid-September all show Boxer with nominal leads.

Our standard trend estimate, based on all available public polls, now shows Boxer leading by a roughly three-point margin (47.5% to 44.3%). Our more sensitive trend line, shown below, illustrates the tightening in late August. Since the current estimate from that line gives greater weight to more recent polls, it gives Boxer a slightly larger lead (47.8% to 43.2%).

The two new California polls also suggest a reversal of the previous trend favoring Republican Meg Whitman. The Field poll results released yesterday show Whitman tied with Democrat Jerry Brown (at 41% each), while SurveyUSA gives Brown a small but statistically insignificant advantage (46% to 43%). So while six surveys had shown Brown with nominal leads in August and early September, the five most recent polls show either a tie or a slight Brown edge.

read more: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/09/24/polls-lift-boxer-and-brow_n_737705.html


_______ A gay Rhode Island Democrat seeking election to a U.S. House seat this fall is maintaining a double-digit lead against his Republican opponent, according to a recent polling memo obtained by the Blade.

The memo shows David Cicilline, the out mayor of Providence, R.I., leads his GOP opponent John Loughlin, a Rhode Island State House member, by a margin of 53 percent to 38 percent.
According to the memo, dated Sept. 22 and published by the Feldman Group, Cicilline’s lead climbs to 59 percent while 34 percent of respondents continue to support Loughlin after voters hear messages on behalf of both candidates.

The memo says Loughlin’s campaign attacks on Cicilline “fall flat” and that only 40 percent of voters in Rhode Island’s 1st congresional district are more likely to support the Republican candidate based on criticisms already made against the Providence mayor.

read more: http://www.washingtonblade.com/2010/09/24/cicilline-leads-gop-opponent-by-double-digits-poll/


_______ Virginia Rep. Tom Perriello released a survey Tuesday night placing him just 2 points back from Republican state Sen. Robert Hurt. The DCCC put out a poll from Arkansas’s 1st Congressional District with Democratic nominee Chad Causey slightly ahead of Republican Rick Crawford in the open-seat race. And the committee showed at-risk New Mexico Rep. Harry Teague up 7 points on his GOP challenger, former Rep. Steve Pearce.

Some members are reported to be in even more secure positions: Kentucky Democratic Rep. Ben Chandler put out a poll, giving him a 20-point lead over Republican challenger Andy Barr, and Georgia Democratic Rep. Jim Marshall was ahead by 12 points in a DCCC survey. Still other surveys have rebutted specific Republican or independent polls: After an automated SurveyUSA poll had Washington Rep. Adam Smith just 3 points ahead of an underfunded opponent, Smith’s campaign released an internal poll giving the Democratic incumbent a 19-point advantage.

read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/42653.html


_______ A new poll shows Democratic US Senate candidate Chris Coons with a whopping lead over Repbublican Christine O'Donnell (Delaware).

The CNN/Time Opinion Research survey released Wednesday shows Coons, currently New Castle County Executive, leading O'Donnell 55 to 39 percent among likely voters.

Among the wider pool of registered voters, Coons leads O'Donnell by 25 points.

read: http://www.wdel.com/story.php?id=704438576604


_______ Democrat Andrew Cuomo has a 19-point lead over Republican candidate Carl Paladino in the New York governor's race, according to a Marist College poll out today.

The Marist poll shows Cuomo receiving the support of 52% of likely voters, compared with 33% for Paladino. Rick Lazio, trounced by upstart Paladino in the Sept. 14 GOP primary, was backed by 9% of likely voters. Lazio is still on the ballot as a Conservative.

"Andrew Cuomo is ahead, and right now, this is not a close race," said Lee Miringoff, director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. "He is being bolstered by the Lazio factor, but he is just above 50% among likely voters, and you can't overlook the enthusiasm Republicans are bringing to this election cycle."

Cuomo's support is strongest in New York City, where he leads Paladino, 65%-23% in the survey. In upstate New York, they each take 43% of likely voters.

read: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/onpolitics/post/2010/09/mario-cuomo-carl-paladino/1

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