Venezuela's most accurate pollsters predict victory for Chavez' party in tomorrow's elections

[Mefistofeles]

The following is an analysis of what polls have been saying regarding tomorrows' Assembly Elections in Venezuela.
In the 2009 referendum to extend term limits, the results were 55% for Yes, 45% for No. (a margin of 9.73%. The polling firm IVAD predicted a 8.0% victory for the Yes. That's pretty accurate.

In the 2008 regional elections, Chavez' party won by 58%-41%. IVAD predicted a 13% victory for Chavez' party, which is fairly accurate, and even underestimating Chavez' lead. So that's fairly accurate.

In a defeated constitutional referendum in 2007, the anti-Chavez won by about 1-2%. IVAD had predicted a 4% margin anti-Chavez win. This turned out to be accurate.

For tomorrow's elections, IVAD predicts a 54%-46% lead by the pro-Chavez party.

Another historically accurate pollster is: GIS XXI, which, although being "clearly government-alligned," predicted a 11%-16% pro-chavez victory in 2009. the final result was "just under 13%". The final results were 10%-margin, so that's fairly accurate.

Opposition-alligned pollsters have been historically a joke. Read about their way-off predictions and refusal to release their methodology: http://axisoflogic.com/artman/publish/Article_61200.shtml

My initial advise: for analysis of Venezuelan elections, do not resort to American columnists or journalists from countries that hate Chavez. They will always exaggerate reality in favor of the opposition. Look at numbers. Look at polls. Serious polls.

Datanalisis is very bad, and Hinterlaces and Keller y Asociados are terribly bad, as you can see by reading their past predictions vs. actual results.

[digitaln3rd]

1. "Don't look at American journalists.."

Yeah, look at the Venezuelan people that hate the dictator, Chavez.

Never understood the love around here for dictators like Chavez just because he didn't like Bush either.

[Mefistofeles]

2. Poll history vs. pro-American journalists

Which one do you pick? How predictable that in your response you said nothing about poll history. I link to an analysis of pollsters. I did not say that Government journalists or officials are to be believed. Polls. Polls. Polls.

[Warren Stupidity]

4. the point was to slip in the 'he's a dictator' bullshit. nt.

[Warren Stupidity]

3. Odd sort of dictatorship. Kind of FDR-like.

All that getting re-elected stuff in fair and open elections is so dictatory. Perhaps we should invade. After all, they do have oil.

[digitaln3rd]

5. Easy to get re-elected..

When you bully the opposition and control the media.

He hates Bush though so I guess everything is A-OK then, hmm?

[Warren Stupidity]

6. If you have evidence of election fraud please provide it.

So far all of Venezuela's elections since 98 have been judged by outside observers as reasonably honest, including for example the one Chavez lost on major constitutional reforms. The political opposition is quite unbullied and the media is not controlled by the government, despite the nonsense you have read from our plutocracy controlled media. Really you should turn that shit off.

The reason why the opposition hasn't been able to win an election since 98 is 1) they totally fucked the country up in the 90's; 2) the Bolivarian Party has done a lot of good things for the vast majority of Venezauelans, at the expense of course of the elites; 3) it is really hard to win a fair and open election in Venezuela running on programs that shit on the poor and pander to the rich.

Yeah hating Bush is a good start. You understand of course that under Bush the CIA ran a failed coup attempt against the democratically elected government?

[EFerrari]

7. LOL. Just the other day the opposition media ran the headline,

"they got the monkey but the mico remains", a taunt to assassination after the last FARC killing.



And thanks to rabs for that link.

You really need to get up to speed. Venezuela votes on systems cleaner than yours.

[EFerrari]

8. Maybe you need to look up "dictator". Or maybe Chavez stole your girl.

lol