E.J. Dionne: Democrats' Potential Firewall in the Northeast

[bigtree]

Sunday, September 26, 2010

Northeast could save the day for Democrats

{snip}

A Pew Research Center survey released last week underscored stark regional disparities that could shape the outcome (of the midterm election). The survey found that while Democrats trail Republicans by three points among all registered voters in the South, they are ahead of the GOP by nine points in the Northeast.

Because of the enthusiasm gap, Republicans do better among those who now seem most likely to vote. Yet the regional variations are even more pronounced in this group: While Republicans are ahead by one point among likely voters in the Northeast, they lead by 15 points in the South. Almost all of the divergence is driven by white voters: Among white likely voters in the Northeast, Republicans have a 10-point lead; in the South, their lead is 35 points.

The emergence of the Northeast as a potential Democratic firewall has been a long time in the making. The steady realignment of the South toward the Republicans, which rendered the party increasingly conservative, called forth a counter-realignment among moderates in the North.

That trend has been accelerating. Since 2006, Democrats have taken 18 Northeastern seats away from the Republicans, and the impact of this change is especially stark in New England. Among the region's 22 House members, not one is Republican. By contrast, nine of the 25 House members elected in that 1966 election were Republicans . . .


read more: http://www.dispatch.com/live/content/editorials/stories/2010/09/26/northeast-could-save-the-day-for-democrats.html?sid=101

[The Magistrate]

1. Indeed, Sir: The South Skews The National Averages To The Point Of Meaninglessness

It does not matter how much they pile up the score where there is already no contest....

[bigtree]

2. apparently

. . . the author is referring to the seats republicans need in this midterm to take the House.

There are races in Maine, Vermont, New York, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Conneticut, Rhode Island, Maryland, Delaware and Pennsylvania which are critical in the balance of seats needed to hold or lose the House. I take your point about republican strength in the South, but there are quite a few inroads for Democrats in that region, not so many for republicans in the emerging Democratic bloc in the Northeast. (http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/house)

We hold those votes and look to make inroads in the red areas. The midterms won't be so much of a national referendum that would be advantaged by the republican's southern bloc of voters. House races are mostly local affairs which can dilute republicans' statewide advantages that they enjoy in Senate races and presidential votes. That's what I suppose Mr. Dionne is looking at.

[Hello_Kitty]

3. Sorry! I unrecced this by accident. Someone cancel me out, please!

:hi:

[TheWraith]

4. Done! :) nt

[spooky3]

7. and I'll pile on his/her cancellation!

:hug:

[Kingofalldems]

5. K and R. Republicans will not like this one.

[Alexander]

6. Republicans sure aren't winning any House seats in CT.

The only marginally close seats are Jim Himes in CT-04 and Joe Courtney in CT-02, and they're both still favored to win.

Blumenthal and Malloy also look favored to win statewide.

Glad I'm back here and not still in Arizona.

[Dawson Leery]

9. Courtney is in the mid 50's.

Debicella is a right wing nut. Some may not care for Himes moderation, but that is what will ensure that Mr. Debicella (Republican/Theocrat-Mobtown) does not
get a voice in the congress.
Debicella's best internal puts Himes at 49%. The GOP is winning nothing in New England this fall.

[madmax]

8. k&r