WTF? Of 37 Senate polls, 12 are RV (Dem 47.8 - Rep 41.1) and 25 LV (Dem 38.6 - GOP 51.6) - x

[tiptoe]

2010 Midterm House & Senate Forecast Model: RV/LV Polls, Undecided Voters & Election Fraud   bit.ly/dsmBIl

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)         source: http://richardcharnin.com/2010ElectionForecastModels.htm     

Sept. 26, 2010

Registered and Likely Voter Projections

The House and Senate forecast models provide Registered Voter (RV) and Likely Voter (LV) projections. The assumption is that the election is held today. Pre-election polls all interview registered voters; likely voters are a sub-sample. They are not separate polls. Democrats always do better in the full RV sample than in the LV sub-sample (see the LVCM model below).

LV polls exclude millions of registered voters who actually vote—and most of them are Democrats. In addition, millions of votes are cast but never counted in every election—and most of them are Democratic as well. The good news is that proliferation of electronic voting has reduced the uncounted vote rate. The bad news is that votes can be switched, stuffed or dropped at the voting machine and/or the central tabulator where they are counted.

Since 2000, the LV poll projections have closely matched recorded vote-count shares and final exit polls (which are "forced" to match the recorded vote). The RV poll projections closely matched the unadjusted-state and preliminary-national exit polls. In the weeks prior to the election, the MSM phases out RV polls and replaces them with LV polls that lowball projected Democratic shares. In so doing, they lay the foundation for matching their final predictions to a fraudulent recorded vote-count.

Midterm Forecast
(Probability of GOP majority)

Senate Seats
200 simulated election trials

LV polls:
RV polls:

Dem
50.5
52.7

Repub
47.5
45.3

(5%)
(0%)

House Seats

LV polls:
RV polls:

198
207

237
228

(100%)
(91%)

 

Table 1

2010 Midterms: Senate and House Forecast Model

Senate Forecast Simulation Summary   
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/senate    bit.ly/azDXlw 

[FBaggins]

1. We're getting closer to the election.

Most pollsters shift over to LV polling in the last few weeks of the campaign.

[spanone]

2. shhh, don't tell the media, they think we're losing.

[pnwmom]

3. We WILL lose, if all the votes aren't counted properly. n/t

[tiptoe]

5. some "media" does only what its corporate bosses tell them to do/say/print/think. nt

[BzaDem]

4. I think they should just poll Democrats. That would get much more accurate results.

:sarcasm: