Tossup-Free House Projection: 222 Democrats 213 Republicans

[Yeggo]

I'm as surprised as anyone. But looking at the district races individually, this is how it works out. It's not a huge margin of error, and things can, and will change between now and election day, but as a starting point, it's not as bad as I expected it to be:

Quibble away....

http://bit.ly/a8E3TZ

[rurallib]

1. with 40 "dems" ready to vote with the repugs at the drop of a hat

I'd say that doesn't look good.

[Imajika]

2. Well, many of those Dems would be gone...

...under this scenario.

A lot of Blue Dogs are probably headed for defeat.

[Yeggo]

4. Good point...

There's really probably in the neighborhood of 100 seats that are always going to be held by either moderate Democrats or Republicans. The district-by-district work I've done shows that voting like a moderate or conservative Democrat isn't saving a lot of these people from electoral trouble. In fact, I think most of the Democrats that are in trouble are these types of folks. Sure, there's the occasional Alan Grayson that's on the verge of losing, but for every one of him, there's 4-5 Walt Minnicks or Bobby Brights...

[rurallib]

5. Last I saw Grayson had a commanding lead - like 13 points

y'all trying to do a little trolling here?
Been a couple anti-Grayson trollers here this weekend.
Lots of voters like Democrats who run as Democrats.

[Yeggo]

9. No trolling...

Understand the troll concern, but why would I troll with a link to my prediction that Democrats keep the House? Anyway, the last Grayson poll was a Susquehannah survey that has him down 7, and his opponent is getting a big fundraising burst from his "Taliban" ad.

[madrchsod]

3. no it does`t...

to bad the democrats do`t have the same muscle the rethugs have over their members.

[Arkana]

6. Not true, actually. A lot of those Dems that will lose in Nov are Blue Dogs.

The one definite good to come out of this November will be that the Blue Dogs will find their numbers significantly reduced.

[rurallib]

7. I hope that is true. Haven't followed the House races across the country

Been busy trying to keep our own man in - Dave Loebsack.

[Arkana]

8. Can you Iowa guys get yourselves an industrial-sized can of RAID

and just spray it all over Steve King's district for us? Please?

[rurallib]

10. we are open to any and all suggestions to remove the cancer called King.