|VA5| - Perriello (D) 44 - Hurt (R) 45 --- tea party candidate not included in polls

[underpants]

The race between U.S. Rep. Tom Perriello, D-Ivy, and GOP nominee Robert Hurt is shaping up to be a close one, a growing number of polls indicates.

The latest poll, released Wednesday by the American Natural Gas Alliance and congressional newspaper The Hill, found Hurt with 45 percent and Perriello with 44 percent.

Based on a sample of 403 likely voters in the 5th District — which runs from the Charlottesville region down to Danville — the poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent (okay not a very good poll granted). It also found that “other” was the preference of 2 percent, while 9 percent were undecided.

http://www2.dailyprogress.com/news/2010/oct/06/photo-finish-5th-ar-547116/



There are suddenly several polls that show this as a dead heat. Perriello's campaign was loudly irate about the Survey USA polls that showed a 20-point-lead by Hurt as being bogus. Perriello was right.

I heard about the polls on the local RW station (reaches faaar outside of Richmond). Even though the station is pushing the Tea Baggers relentlessly there has been almost no mention of the Va5 race since these polls came out... what to do- keep supporting the tea bag candidate and dragoff votes? :shrug: or not?

[alcibiades_mystery]

1. This should be an easy R pick-up

Why the closeness?

[pokercat999]

2. Drove across the mid-section of Nelson and Fluvanna

counties Saturday. Rt 6 was littered with Hurt signs. What is interesting is that none of the signs identified him as a rethug or even a Republican.

Could be that Perriello is strong in Charlottesville (home of UVA) the major population center in the district.

[underpants]

3. The 5th is dominately not by C'ville population but C'ville money

Lynchburg is there too (the largest US city without an interstate-thanks to C'ville) which holds a sizeable percentage of New Deal Dems and railroad people. Goodee won in the outer regions but Perriello, as you probably know, edged him by 727 votes in 2008.

Route 6 is a great drive, my second favorite in Va next to Route 5 (Richmond to Williamsburg).

[phylny]

4. This is my district.

It's a huge and diverse district, too, and has historically been Republican. There are many who'll never vote for a Dem, but lots of transplanted northerners who'll vote for Perriello. Charlottesville really helps the Dem effort.

The attack ads are horrendous, and there are lots of ominous billboards, plus one big one close to where I live that mentions the "Obama/Perriello Regime." I love living here, but the people are hell.

[underpants]

5. I have encountered many Lynchburgers since marrying my wife

and I have to say that as a native of the Peninsula and a resident of Richmond I find them remarkably nice. I really like the area. I understand that I don't have the depth of experiences as you have but the people from the old Lynchburg neigborhood and the railroad connected people I have met are great people and Dems too.

[phylny]

6. I work in Lynchburg, but live in Bedford County.

People are nice, yes, but politically speaking, half of Lynchburg is dominated by Liberty University, home of the late Jerry Falwell.