(Good News For Dems) Pew: Growing Cell Phone Poll Bias Favors Republicans - HuffPo

[WillyT]

I was wondering if anybody was still tracking this phenomenon.

Pew: Growing Cell Phone Poll Bias Favors Republicans
Mark Blumenthal - HuffingtonPost
First Posted: 10-13-10 05:41 PM | Updated: 10-13-10 05:44 PM

<snip>

Does it matter that many polls -- including the vast majority that we are currently watching at the state and congressional district level -- do not call Americans who use only a cell phone and thus lack landline telephone service? Yes it does. It creates a growing bias that appears to benefit Republican candidates. That's the message of a new analysis released this afternoon by the Pew Research Center: http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1761/cell-phones-and-election-polls-2010-midterm-elections

Since 2006, a rapidly increasing percentage of American households lacks landline phone service. The most recent government estimates find that one in four American households is reachable by cell phone only. Pollsters have been reluctant to sample and call Americans on their cell phones, partly because it costs more and partly because federal law requires hand dialing any call placed to a cell phone, which makes such calls less efficient and puts cell phone polling off limits to automated survey methodologies.

For the last four years, the Pew Research Center has conducted public opinion surveys involving separate, parallel samples of both landline and mobile phones. Their design allows for a comparison between combined samples of landline and cell interviews and samples based only on landline calls.

Before the 2008 election, they found that calling only landline phones introduced a "small but real" bias in favor of John McCain, an average bias of 2.3 percentage points on the margin on nine national surveys conducted between June and October of that year.

This year, according to today's report, the Pew Center finds that sampling only landline phones creates an even bigger bias -- "differences of four to six points on the margin" - in favor of the Republicans. The most recent survey in the study, conducted in late August and early September, also involved comparisons based on a subgroup of "likely voters" chosen using a traditional seven question turnout scale (similar to the classic Gallup likely voter model):

The combined landline and cell estimate produced a seven-point Republican advantage: 50% supported the GOP candidate for Congress in their district while 43% backed the Democratic candidate. The Republican lead would have been 12 points if only the landline sample had been interviewed, a significant difference from the combined sample of five points in the margin.

<snip>

More: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/10/13/pew-research-cell-phone-p_n_761760.html

:shrug:

[WillyT]

1. Kick !!!

:kick:

[nadinbrzezinski]

2. I've said myself just from observing the phenomena

And it gets worst, the universe of voters they are reaching, the polls are correct. That universe is mostly white and retired. Talking to folks in my cohort we don't do polls much either.

[WillyT]

3. And Young Voters Are Almost EXCLUSIVELY Cell Only...

Now if we can just get them to come back out and vote one more time, they could smack these racist, homophobic, misogynistic, Neanderthals back to the Stone Age where they belong.

They do belong in the Stone Age... don't they?

:evilgrin:

:shrug:

[nadinbrzezinski]

5. I suspect we are in for a surprise

Dewey defeats Trumman happened for the same reason. If not this mid-term...though I suspect it will be this midterm.

The Dems will keep the Senate and the house is way too close to call. But I would not be shocked if they keep it too. Talking to that cell phone based demographic, nobody is excited, but the crazee is really scary.

[underpants]

4. I posted about this two weeks ago. This is a very real element to polling.

Not to say "I ALREADY COVERED THIS" ---don't get me wrong

The article is actually wrong, political polls/fundraisers/non-profits (charities) can't call cell phones. Robo-calls can (I think) legally but can't functionally. BTW this is a result of the Dem majority in 2006 if I am not mistaken.

This is huge. The image is that it is all slick young hipsters but my wife and I only have a landline ($12 a month) in case of hurricanes and power gets cut so we can't power the cells.

The polls don't reflect any of this but then I think most of the purpose of polls these days is to drive AND support the corporate media narrative.

[WillyT]

6. Well...

I can't speak to POLLING on cell phones, but... I'm cell phone only, and I've gotten more than a couple of campaign ad calls on my cell this time around.

:shrug:

:hi:

[yourout]

7. Plus it gives them cover to mess with the vote.

They can deny or outright steal 3 to 4 points and still claim the polls were correct.

[WillyT]

8. Kick !!!

:kick: